Are you more afraid of picking against Jalen Hurts or counting on Will Levis to cover two touchdowns? How about Josh Allen going to Arrowhead or Zach Wilson reluctantly returning to the field? Let’s see if the 1-seed races stay tight or if Baltimore and Philadelphia can get themselves some extra breathing room.

Seven lines this week feature road favorites, and we’re picking six of them to cover. Who will miss the cut? And who can we really count on at home?

Happy holidays everyone! We’re leaning hard into the big favorites for our Thanksgiving and Black Friday games, but asking road teams to carry us the rest of the way. Enjoy the indulgence and we’ll add the remaining write-ups later this weekend!

It’s hard to know who we can trust week in and week out, but a big part of that is injuries. I didn’t feel as good about San Francisco before Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams came back - now that they’re on the field, 11 points doesn’t seem too extreme. Dallas is more conditional, but Carolina is exactly the kind of team they’ve beaten up on. As for Russell Wilson vs. Josh Dobbs? Just taking the points and seeing what happens.

Week 10 doesn’t seem like it’s too late in an 18-week season, but there are a few teams facing real forks in the road as the playoff picture begins to take shape. Can the Bills, Bengals, and 49ers make big statements against fellow playoff hopefuls? Let’s see if we get some clarity on who truly belongs in the contender conversation in this week’s big matchups.