2024 NFL Picks Week 14: Bye-bye to Byes
Wow, Jameis Winston really kept us in suspense right until the end of Monday Night Football. If he hadn't thrown his second pick-six, or his third interception just moments later, we would have covered and come out ahead on the week. But hey, that's the Jameis experience; we can live with an 8-8 finish in a wild week of games. Week 14 is the last of the season to feature any bye weeks, and while it means I won't have to write as much, only two of these lines jumped out to me as easy choices at first glance. Let's work through the rest!
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Lions are banged up. Most of their defensive line after accounting for Aidan Hutchinson is on the injury report, and their linebacking corps might be in even worse shape. Green Bay is coming off a big win over the Dolphins, and everyone who talks about football professionally is seeing visions of the Packers’ 2023-24 second-half run. I'm not buying it. Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks are all B+ receivers with distinct shortcomings, Jordan Love still puts the ball in harm’s way too often, and the Packers can't rush the passer at all. Even with all of their injuries, the Lions have a top-tier offensive line and an absurd collection of weapons around Jared Goff. I don’t think Green Bay can keep up with Ben Johnson and the Lions in Detroit. Lions -3.5
Minnesota Vikings -5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I wanted to take Minnesota with the possibility of a real rout, where an aggressive and pressure-heavy Brian Flores defense makes Kirk Cousins miserable all day. I just can't bring myself to count on Sam Darnold and a big spread. It took some real game mismanagement by the Cardinals to give the Vikings a win last week, and the Falcons moved the ball against a good Chargers’ defense even if Kirk seemed determined to blow the game. I’ll regret this one quickly if the Vikings go up 14-0 in the first quarter, but I think a mutually ugly close game is more likely. Falcons +5
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Okay, the choices here are taking Will Levis as a favorite or backing the Mac Jones version of the Jaguars on the road. Gross. I still think Will Levis is very bad, and I don't like taking very bad teams giving more than a field goal against anyone, so there we have it. Jaguars +3.5
New York Giants +4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
I love picking against the Giants this year, but New Orleans looked so bad at times in their loss to the Rams last week. Losing Taysom Hill seems to be an injury the Saints’ offense can't endure, and if the Giants have Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy available, they at least have a chance at big plays. Maybe New Orleans shuts out Drew Lock and makes me swallow my words, but until then I'm taking the points. Giants +4.5
Miami Dolphins -6 vs. New York Jets
It's so very tempting to pick the Jets getting this many points even after they choked away a cover to Seattle last week, but Miami might be worth counting on. The Dolphins have a rest advantage, having played on Thanksgiving, and their offense looked good in that game despite paltry points production. Add in a recent history of strong performances against better versions of the Jets’ defense (30+ points in four of the last five games), and they can absolutely win by a touchdown with the Jets’ offense averaging just 18.8 points per game this year. Dolphins -6
Philadelphia Eagles -13 vs. Carolina Panthers
Fine, let’s talk about the Eagles. Their win over the Ravens wasn't as absolute as some might have you believe, but it was still a good win and put some of their strongest traits on full display. Philadelphia’s defense really has improved dramatically, and it's hard to deny some kind of fatiguing effect the Eagles’ massive offensive line and Saquon Barkley are having on opponents. The resurrection of Bryce Young’s career in Carolina has been a nice story, but this is a very bad matchup for him and the rest of the Panthers. Their defense isn't good enough to stop Philly’s run game, and Bryce might come down to earth a bit playing the hottest defense in the NFL. Serious teams stomp lesser competition, and I'm taking the Eagles seriously now. Eagles -13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This is a pretty high line for a Bucs team who nearly lost to the Panthers last week, but nothing seems to go right for this year’s Raiders. They played the Chiefs tough for four quarters but found a new embarrassing way to lose, and I think they're due for some regression as they head to Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield and co. have to keep fighting for playoff position, and Todd Bowles should be excited to face this Raiders’ offense. I like the better team at home by less than a touchdown. Buccaneers -6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns could lose by 20 or they could win outright like they did just a couple of weeks ago in Cleveland. That's the Jameis Difference! At a basic level, though, we know Cleveland has played their best ball against the AFC North this year and Russell Wilson will surely have another bad performance before we reach the end of the season. It feels crazy, but we're siding with the Browns. Browns +7
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle won this matchup a couple weeks back on the strength of a weird pick-six and some bad red zone performances from Arizona. I think their defense will make things hard on Kyler again, but the Cards should have some counterpunches ready and the Seahawks’ offensive woes are even more concerning right now. I usually like taking the points, but I think Arizona is the better team and they're only giving the standard home line. Cardinals -2.5
Los Angeles Rams +4 vs. Buffalo Bills
Just like the Packers, people seem to believe the Rams are set to repeat their 2023-24 performance down the stretch. Unfortunately, that's not how football works; Matthew Stafford is a little dinged up and the Rams’ run game hasn't been able to replicate the success we saw from Kyren Williams last year. Buffalo, meanwhile, is on one heck of a roll and probably can't wait to travel to Los Angeles for a weekend. If the Bills are a serious playoff team, we need to see them take care of business against a middling playoff hopeful. Bills -4
San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Chicago Bears
I think it's over for the Niners. Too many injuries, too many egos, and too many weird results. I really like what we've seen from Caleb Williams since Thomas Brown took over playcalling duties, and while I'm a little nervous about the impact of promoting him and having to backfill his original role, I'm choosing to be optimistic. Chicago has a rest advantage, a talented quarterback, and enough personnel to match up with a decimated Niners team on both sides of the ball. Bears +4
Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Well it isn't a two-score spread, but it's still a little bigger than I expected. Kansas City is an uninspiring machine, but their defense isn't generating pressure or turnovers at the rate they did last year. DeAndre Hopkins has shown some good chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, but they're still missing an explosive element I need to see before I take them as favorites again. I like the Chiefs to win and the Chargers to cover. Chargers +4
Dallas Cowboys +5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cowboys looked competent on both sides of the ball in their win over the Giants last week, but there are bigger questions for this matchup. Will Dallas be able to pressure Joe Burrow all game long? Is Cooper Rush good enough to take advantage of Cincy’s defensive flaws the same way so many more experienced quarterbacks have? I keep falling back on the idea that Cincy will probably score 30+ points this week against the league’s 24th-ranked defense by DVOA, and I don't trust Cooper Rush to keep up. Bengals -5.5
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
