2024 NFL Picks Week 15: Taking Our Medicine
No one wins forever, right? The afternoon slate last weekend was brutal for us, and some of the misses (particularly the Bears) seem even sillier in hindsight. Wins on Sunday and Monday night kept it from getting too ugly, and this week features a handful of games I was excited to jump on. Maybe that means you should run for the hills, but maybe it means we’re in for a big week. Let’s find out together!
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I was leaning on two theories for this pick: the Rams’ offense had really found their footing after an explosive performance against the Bills, and the 49ers big win over Chicago was more a product of Bears’ dysfunction than San Francisco finding solutions. After a 12-6 slopfest, it looks like I was right about the latter and that was enough. Always nice to start the week with a win! Rams +2.5
New Orleans Saints +7.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Washington is coming off a bye week, which means we should see the healthiest version of Jayden Daniels we can hope for this late in the year. To say I’m unimpressed by the Saints’ offense without Taysom Hill and Chris Olave is a massive understatement; they’ve only managed 28 points in the last two games against the Rams and Giants. The New Orleans defense has benefitted from an easy schedule, and I think they’ll struggle to stop what Washington wants to do. Their offense just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up. Commanders -7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. New York Jets
I don’t want anything to do with this game. I’ve had such a good time picking against the Jets this year, but now they’re going down to Florida to take on Mac Jones and a Jacksonville team that, while terrible, is considerably less terrible at home. At EverBank Stadium, the Jags are 1-4 with a -13 point differential. They’re 2-6 in all other games with a point differential of -94. There’s no doubt that the Jets should win this game by more than a field goal based on talent alone, but what has that meant so far this year? Jaguars +3.5
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami almost made the Jets look good last week but somehow snatched a push for us by scoring a touchdown in overtime. Their defense has some serious issues, and Houston is coming off a bye week in desperate need of a positive offensive performance. Unless Tua and Mike McDaniel have a secret plan to get after the Texans’ 2nd-ranked defense, this will be an easy cover for Houston at home. Texans -2.5
Tennessee Titans +5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
If we can count on the Bengals’ defense to hold anyone under 20 points, it’s Will Levis. Heck, they can even pick up a touchdown of their own when he’s on the other side. In 10 games this season, Levis has taken 39 sacks, fumbled twice, and thrown 9 interceptions. That’s five negative splash plays per game. Tennessee’s defense has been surprisingly competent this year, but 12th in DVOA isn’t good enough to limit the Bengals’ offense. Cincy should win by a touchdown. Bengals -5
Cleveland Browns +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This line has since moved down to Chiefs -4 in the past few days. I just don’t like this spot for Kansas City; Jameis Winston is chaos incarnate, Myles Garrett will be feasting on whoever the Chiefs roll out at tackle, and being in Ohio is even crappier this time of year than usual. I’m not sure if the Chiefs are going to lose, but you’ve heard me say it before: I don’t think they’ll win by a lot. Browns +6.5
Carolina Panthers -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Look, I’m enjoying the Bryce Young comeback story as much as anyone. I was really hoping they could pull off the upset against Philadelphia last week, and it’s always fun to see more good quarterback play in the NFL. A full field goal here feels like too much, though. Carolina is 3-10 on the season and they have exactly one win by more than three points. Dallas looks better on defense now that some of their critical pieces are back healthy, and that’s enough for this game to remain competitive until Brandon Aubrey can win it for the Cowboys. Cowboys +3
New York Giants +14.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This line has since increased to 16.5, but it might need to hit 20 before I’m tempted to take the Tommy DeVito Giants against a real NFL team. Of course I’ll feel silly if Malik Nabers catches three big touchdowns in the second half to keep the game within two scores, but I’ll feel much sillier if the Ravens are up 28-0 at halftime and I’m banking on Tommy Cutlets throwing the ball. Ravens -14.5
Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. New England Patriots
Is it Kliff Kingsbury or Kyler Murray who falls off in the second half of seasons? Since their Week 11 bye, Arizona is 0-3 and averaging just over 15 points per game. Of course, those performances came against the Vikings and the much-improved version of the Seahawks, and New England’s 31st-ranked defense doesn’t present the same kind of challenge. On the other side, Drake Maye will be coming off a bye to face the league’s 14th-ranked defense by DVOA. He’s shown some flashes, but it’s worth noting that New England is 1-6 in the games he’s started and finished. I’m not ready to count on them on the road just yet. Cardinals -5.5
Detroit Lions -2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The game we’re all waiting for! Both teams need a win here to help their case for the top seed in their conferences, and both have defensive question marks and offenses firing on all cylinders. Josh Allen looks like he can beat anyone in a given week, but Detroit’s defense is getting a little healthier and I just don’t fully believe in this year’s Bills. Let’s not forget they lost to the Rams last week, even if Allen’s stat line was incredible. Detroit is the better team, at home, and they should win an exciting game by a field goal. Lions -2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I like what we’ve seen from the Chargers this season, but they’re short on offensive playmakers and Justin Herbert was hit so hard in the chest last week that he hurt his leg. We’ve seen what their offense looks like when Herbert is compromised, and it isn’t pretty. Unless their defense can get after Baker Mayfield and force some turnovers, both teams might be stuck in mud all day. In that case, we’ll take the field goal. Buccaneers +3
Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This line is too high. Pittsburgh doesn’t have the same kind of offensive playmakers Philadelphia does, especially with George Pickens out, but I like the way their defense matches up with the Eagles’ offense and they have advantages at head coach and special teams. You’re telling me I can get more than a field goal with a good Mike Tomlin team against a unit that almost lost to the Panthers last week? Say no more. Steelers +5
Denver Broncos -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone following along this season, but I still don’t believe in Anthony Richardson. The Colts are 16th in Defensive DVOA, so they’re not the right style of team to ground Bo Nix and Sean Payton’s offense entirely, and Denver’s defense is still a top-tier unit. Add in an extra week of planning for Payton and the home field advantage, and I like the Broncos. Broncos -4
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have four losses this year, to teams currently ranked 1st (twice), 5th, and 6th in DVOA. Seattle is a step down from there, at 15th, but the way their defense has been playing is hard to ignore. Seahawks’ head coach Mike Macdonald has a strong track record, and a couple midseason personnel changes have really made that unit click. Geno Smith makes me nervous, but Green Bay’s defense is firmly “meh” and had trouble causing chaos against the Bears. I’m surprised to see Seattle getting almost a field goal at home, and I’m going to take it. Seahawks +2.5
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears could repeat what they did against the Vikings in a Week 12 overtime loss and cover this spread, but that was a whole head coach ago! I didn’t spend enough time last week thinking about the ripple effects of firing both your Offensive Coordinator and Head Coach midseason; Chicago now has their opening day Passing Game Coordinator filling in as head coach and their Wide Receivers Coach acting as Offensive Coordinator. Those are considerably different jobs! If firing Eberflus means we lose the defensive game planning he was good at, and promoting Thomas Brown means losing our only successful offensive playcaller of the season…where does that leave us? Needing more than a touchdown, unfortunately. Vikings -6.5
Las Vegas Raiders +4 vs. Atlanta Falcons
It’s a Desmond Ridder revenge game! There’s not much to look forward to here, but it’s increasingly clear that Kirk Cousins can’t move or throw the ball like he could before his achilles injury last year. Maxx Crosby is still causing problems for even really good quarterbacks, so he should make things difficult on Atlanta’s offense. Throw in the Falcons’ 27th-ranked defense, and I want nothing to do with them as road favorites. Raiders +4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
