2021 NFL Picks Week 15: A Full Slate(?)
We’re finally generating some of that fabled momentum, but COVID is creeping up from behind with a metal chair. How do we pick games based on which teams have their coaches, who has complete offensive lines, and dramatically shifting lines? We’re hoping to see a full 16 games between this weekend and next week, so we’ll be updating the below picks as we can!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I really thought the Chargers were going to pull off a third straight win over the Chiefs, and for most of the game it was looking pretty good! Then, somehow, the Chargers punted once in ten drives and wound up with just 28 points. Just low enough to go to overtime and give up a touchdown. Tough start. Chargers +3
Cleveland Browns TBD vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Most of the Browns have COVID, and most of the Raiders have not been playing well. TBD
Update: the line has been posted, and despite the high number of COVID cases, the Browns are three point favorites. I can’t believe their offense is ranked 13th in DVOA after scoring 20+ points just twice in their last eight games, but the Raiders haven’t looked a lot better with a point differential of -91 over their past six games. It’s probably old school thinking, but I’ll take the cold-weather team at home in December with a chance to dominate on the ground. Browns -3
Indianapolis Colts -2 vs. New England Patriots
The Colts are only giving two points here at home, and I’m still not a true believer in the Mac Jones version of the Patriots’ offense. He’s been impressive for a rookie for sure, but I’m not sure he’s capable of an offensive explosion against a non-Jets opponent. I just can’t pass up the opportunity to get Bill Belichick and points against Carson Wentz. Patriots +2
Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. New York Jets
This is a great spot for Miami’s ascending defense to wipe the floor with Zach Wilson and make things even messier in the AFC playoff picture. Even if the Dolphins’ offense is overly reliant on RPOs and generally unimpressive, the Jets’ last-ranked defense can make them look good. Dolphins -9.5
New York Giants +11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Remember last week, when the Cowboys managed to win by a touchdown despite a mind-boggling pick-six from Dak Prescott and yet another week of flat offense? This is just like that, but against a weaker and less interested opponent. Let’s watch the new-look Dallas defense destroy Mike Glennon! Cowboys -11
Detroit Lions +13 vs. Arizona Cardinals
So the Cardinals are without Deandre Hopkins for the rest of the regular season, which really sucks. One receiver of his caliber can certainly make things easier for an offense, but are we expecting Kyler Murray to struggle against this Detroit defense? And is there any reason to believe the Lions can put up points against what is still the 4th-ranked defense by DVOA? That’s a no and a no from me. Cardinals -13
Buffalo Bills -12 vs. Carolina Panthers
This line will have to be big to account for the turmoil in Carolina and the desperation in Buffalo. TBD
Update: it does not look big enough to account for that. Bills -12
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Houston Texans
Since I made this pick, Jacksonville fired Urban Meyer and moved the line to Jaguars -5. Yes, the 2-11 Jaguars are favored by more than a field goal despite not winning a single game by more than a field goal all season. They’ve also lost seven straight games against Houston. Let’s take the points. Texans +3
Baltimore Ravens +7 vs. Green Bay Packers
It’s tough going into Baltimore, but it’s a lot easier when they don’t have any cornerbacks, running backs, or healthy Lamar Jacksons. A massive Special Teams gap can only do so much. Packers -7
Philadelphia Eagles TBD vs. Washington Football Team
The suspense is killing me in this battle of NFC East playoff roadkill! TBD
Update: the line has opened at less than a touchdown, which seems generous for a decent Eagles team going against Kyle Shurmur(?) at quarterback for the Football Team. Washington has too many injuries to hold up against either Jalen Hurts or Gardner Minshew. Eagles -6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers EVEN vs. Tennessee Titans
I like the under here more than just about anything, but it seems odd to me that Pittsburgh isn’t favored at home. These teams are right in the same ballpark on underlying numbers, and Tennessee just hasn’t done anything good on offense since losing Derrick Henry and their receivers. Plus, this would let Pittsburgh linger in the playoff picture even longer, which is an annual tradition. Steelers to win
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is greatly outperforming their advanced statistics, but that only works against the worst teams. They’ve lost big to every good team they’ve played, and the Niners are looking like a good team with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Nick Bosa all playing at a high level. I know San Francisco has been bad at home, but they should be carving up the Falcons’ defense all night. 49ers -9.5
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I like Denver a lot, but Cincinnati just has more oomph on offense. Unless the Bengals let Denver run the ball all day, they should get enough big plays to keep things close until late in the game. When that happens, I’m taking Burrow over Bridgewater. Bengals +3
Los Angeles Rams TBD vs. Seattle Seahawks
I’m very excited to pick the Rams, unless literally all of their offensive starters are in the COVID protocol. TBD
Update: it isn’t all the starters, but the Rams still have a lot of COVID concerns to deal with. Still, they’re the far better team by DVOA, they’re at home, and they’ve owned the Seahawks over the past two seasons. Covering a touchdown shouldn’t be a problem unless Russell Wilson really finds all of his old magic. Rams -6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
This looks like a great spot for Tom Brady to stomp an annoying adversary. New Orleans has won three of the last four matchups between these teams, but things are very different these days. Taysom Hill is being asked to actually play quarterback. The Saints’ best receiver is…Alvin Kamara, who happens to be a running back. Tampa seems to be in their second-half groove that puts them on the path to another Tom Brady Super Bowl appearance. Still, this is a big line for a Saints’ team with a great defense and a history of playing the Bucs tough. Saints +11.5
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Minnesota Vikings
There’s almost nothing to like about the Bears, besides them managing to let the Packers cover two scores last week despite dominating special teams. I did enjoy that a bit. That said, Minnesota will be without Adam Thielen and they’re always one play away from a Dalvin Cook injury. I’m not ready to believe in a second straight flawless game from Kirk Cousins. Bears +6
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
