2021 NFL Picks Week 16: Rematches
Alright, things got dicey but we did just enough to inch back above the waterline last week. COVID remains a major factor in how these games will play out, but as usual we’ll do our best based on who’s available as of today. This week, we get a bunch of divisional rematches: Eagles-Giants, Patriots-Bills, Bengals-Ravens, Raiders-Broncos, and of course the legendary Cowboys-Football Team matchup. Happy holidays everyone!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
This pick looked fantastic in the first half, and then the Titans considered throwing to A.J. Brown. The Niners did not consider doing anything to make that more difficult, and Jimmy G threw his usual interception over the middle. I have no idea how they lost this game when their defense seemed to sack Ryan Tannehill every other play, but I also have no idea why I keep picking Thursday Night games at all, so here we are. 49ers -3.5
Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Packers have looked pretty unstoppable on offense over the past few weeks, and extremely weak special teams can only handicap a team so much. The Browns rolled Nick Mullens out last week and almost came up with a victory, but he might be the best quarterback on their roster anyway. With Myles Garrett compromised, there’s no way Green Bay can’t reach 30 points. Do you trust the Browns to get 24? Packers -7
Arizona Cardinals EVEN vs. Indianapolis Colts
As my wife often reminds me, good things don’t happen to the Cardinals. Last week’s shocking loss to the Lions didn’t look as fluky as I would like, and the Colts are firing on all non-Wentz cylinders. I like this Arizona team a lot, but the Colts have just been far more impressive lately. Colts to Win
Houston Texans +9.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I’m very happy with the Texans for pulling out their upset(?) victory over the Jaguars last week. The moneyline on that felt way too easy, and it was. Now they have to face a real football team, though, and the Chargers have all of the pieces they need to run Houston right off the field. The only thing threatening this pick is a long history of inexplicable Chargers’ moments, and I’m not superstitious enough to pick based on that alone. Chargers -9.5
Philadelphia Eagles -10 vs. New York Giants
These teams met just a few weeks ago and the Giants bottled up Jalen Hurts all game long. Not much has changed since then, and this line feels a bit too big for a so-so Eagles’ squad. I will regret this very quickly with Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm playing, but I like getting double digits too much. Giants +10
Carolina Panthers +10.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let’s see, an angry Tom Brady offense going against a strong-but-overworked Panthers’ defense on one side, and an angry Tampa Bay defense facing the shell of Cam Newton on the other. This game should be a blowout unless the Bucs’ offense is truly broken without Chris Godwin. I think his absence hurts their chances at a deep playoff run far more than their chances in a game like this. Buccaneers -10.5
New York Jets -1.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I really hope I have no reason to watch this game. For the pick, I think Jacksonville has a better offensive line and quarterback, and no one has a defense worse than the Jets this year. I don’t feel good about it, but at least we get some points. Jaguars +1.5
New England Patriots -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Between the COVID absences on the Buffalo side and the prior matchup’s extreme weather conditions, I really don’t know what to expect in this one. The Pats could come out throwing with Mac Jones and put the Bills on the defensive, but Buffalo has no problem chucking the ball around and playing catch-up. Buffalo’s defense is solid, but if the weather is better they shouldn’t find it easier to defend both run and pass plays this time around. Missing Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley makes me nervous, but I’m just not positive Mac Jones and the Patriots’ offense is ready to keep up quite yet. Bills +1.5
Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions
This line shifted a bit with the news that Jared Goff likely won’t be available for the Lions, but I’m not sure it should have. No one wants to play their backup quarterback, but the Falcons are bad at just about everything. Don’t let their win total fool you; Atlanta shouldn’t be favored by this much against anyone. Lions +4.5
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
When these teams last met, Joe Burrow went off and Cincinnati cruised to a big win. If anything has changed since then, it’s even more injuries to a decimated Ravens’ roster. Losing their best CB, having their starting QB sit out with a sprained ankle, and handing the ball off to whatever retread they can find doesn’t look very inspiring. There’s no reason to consider these teams even and give Cincy just the home 3. Bengals -3
Minnesota Vikings +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I have no idea what to do with Minnesota, but I’m positive the Rams can carve up the Vikings’ defense. With Dalvin Cook out and Kirk Cousins in another of his swoons, there’s little reason to think the Rams will be in trouble. It might be high scoring on both sides, but I don’t think the Vikings can keep up without Cook or Thielen. Rams -3
Seattle Seahawks -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
I’m just going to keep falling into this trap. I remain confident that Justin Fields is going to have a big game at some point, and Chicago’s defense was surprisingly good last week even without their starting secondary. If Fields plays well this week, we’d need to see a real jump from the version of Seattle’s offense we’ve watched since Russell Wilson came back. I think there’s some overhyping of Seattle baked into this line, so let’s go Bears! Bears +6.5
Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m really struggling with this one. The line is undoubtedly too big with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on the COVID list, but have you watched Ben Roethlisberger this year? He’s extremely limited as a passer, and he’s managed just enough to keep things interesting against bad teams. This Chiefs team is not bad. Chiefs -10.5
Las Vegas Raiders EVEN vs. Denver Broncos
I don’t like a lot of what I’ve seen from the Raiders lately, but Denver is rolling Drew Lock out to start in this one and Las Vegas is decent across the board. Derek Carr hasn’t struggled against the Vic Fangio offense over the past couple years, and I don’t see why he should start now. Raiders to Win
Dallas Cowboys -10 vs. Washington Football Team
The Cowboys barely covered seven points the last time these teams met, but their defense continues to dominate, especially against young and inexperienced offenses. Heinecke might be back for the Football Team, but he’ll probably do as much bad as good against a swarming Dallas defense. Let’s take the ‘Boys. Cowboys -10
New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Saints are a disaster at quarterback, but they haven’t gotten much from the position all season long. Miami is going to bring a lot of heat and force Ian Book to beat them, which means Sean Payton has been scheming all week. I think the New Orleans defense is good enough to strangle Tua all day and give their offense the field position advantage they need to get a win here. Saints +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
