2021 NFL Picks Week 14: No Frills
Alright y’all, time for some transparency: we hosted a late Friendsgiving last night, and I’m in no condition to write intelligently about these picks. The same could probably be said every week based on our record, but cut us some slack this week. The cocktails were flowing!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Minnesota Vikings -4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mostly I was shocked to see the team who lost to the Lions favored by more than a field goal. It looked like an insane pick most of the game, and then the Vikings did what they do and made it look far more reasonable by almost blowing a 29-0 lead in one quarter. Close, but a tough start to the week. Steelers +4
Houston Texans +8.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle showed some signs of life against the Niners last week, and that’s all it takes to stomp on the Texans these days. Houston has lost 7 games this year by 9 points or more, and this is an easy opportunity for an eighth. Seahawks -8.5
New York Jets +5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Taysom Hill Experience is undoubtedly a disaster, but it’s certainly interesting to watch. The same cannot be said for the Jets, who only looked interesting with Mike White under center. Alvin Kamara should be enough to win this game by a touchdown. Saints -5.5
Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are undoubtedly capable of winning this game outright. Capability doesn’t mean much for Atlanta this year, though. Somehow they get blown out on a regular basis despite a bevvy of offensive weapons and the rehabilitation of Cordarelle Patterson, and Carolina’s defense is still competent enough to put the clamps on whatever the Falcons want to do. It won’t be pretty, but it should be a full three points. Panthers -2.5
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
These teams played three weeks ago, and neither has impressed since then. That said, there’s a reason Baltimore is 8-4 and Cleveland is 6-6; the Browns know how to beat themselves thoroughly. They should probably win this game, but it’s going to be close. Ravens +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I’m just mad at the Niners for blowing their game against the Seahawks last week. Without Deebo Samuel, I don’t trust San Francisco’s offense to succeed for four quarters. Cincinnati’s offense won’t have any trouble against a shoddy and injured secondary even with Burrow’s injured finger Let’s go with the home team and the points. Bengals +1.5
Washington Football Team +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
These teams are in very different tiers. Dallas hasn’t had a big showing in a bit, but they need one to put their stamp on the division. It’s going to get ugly fast. Cowboys -4.5
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Everything is telling me to take the Raiders with a line this big, but Kansas City has stumbled on some kind of defensive solution that appears sustainable. Unless Las Vegas picks this week to change away from the defensive scheme the Chiefs love to play against, we’ll have a blowout just like Week 10. Chiefs -9.5
Tennessee Titans -8.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The idiotic coach with a bottom-5 roster, or the experienced team crippled by injuries? What a matchup! Tennessee should absolutely win, but over a touchdown is tough for a team with no offense. Let’s see what Trevor Lawrence can do. Jaguars +8.5
Los Angeles Chargers -10 vs. New York Giants
The Giants are rolling Jake Fromm out with their injured quarterback room. He will not be enough to keep things competitive. Chargers -10
Denver Broncos -10 vs. Detroit Lions
Vic Fangio was partly responsible for exposing Jared Goff as a fraud, when his Bears defense shut down what was a high-flying Rams attack. Goff now has far less support, and the Lions aren’t going to look good two weeks in a row. Broncos -10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Everything in me wants to pick Tampa Bay to win in a blowout, but I just don’t think Buffalo is done quite yet. Their passing offense should be able to find holes in a weak Tampa Bay secondary, and they need this game badly. Getting a little more than a field goal feels nice. Bills +3.5
Green Bay Packers -12.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Has anyone seen signs that the Bears have improved since they lost to Green Bay in Week 6? They’re 1-4 since, with their lone win coming against the Lions. Their best hope to cover here is that the Packers get bored. Packers -12.5
Arizona Cardinals -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
My wife tells me nice things don’t happen to Arizona teams. Winning convincingly would be very nice, and make the Cardinals’ path to the 1-seed in the NFC much clearer. So the Rams will probably make things difficult. Rams +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
