2021 NFL Picks Week 7: Picking up the Pieces
Well, that was a massacre. All the big favorites (Chiefs, Rams, Colts, Bengals, Packers) won by double digits, and for the first and likely only time in my life I felt close to Justin Herbert. The Ravens’ secondary could have been Velcro-ed to the Chargers receivers, and much like watching the Lions game, every glimmer of hope was quickly buried under missed assignments and opponent touchdowns. We’ve dug ourselves quite a hole here, but there’s a lot of season left. Let’s see if we can turn things around this week!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Cleveland Browns -5 vs. Denver Broncos
Kareem Hunt was out. Nick Chubb was out. Baker Mayfield was out. Odell Beckham Jr. played, but he might as well have been out. And somehow we almost lost! Thankfully, Touchdown Teddy came through with an 18-play touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter to give us a cover. I’ll take every win I can get at this point, but not a good look for the once-3-0 Broncos. Broncos +5
Miami Dolphins EVEN vs. Atlanta Falcons
I’ve checked a few times now, but I haven’t found any evidence suggesting this game will be played in London. Which means…Vegas has the Atlanta Falcons listed as the better team on a neutral field. And THAT means we can win our bet just by having the 2-3 Falcons lose. Dolphins to Win
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I know the Panthers are in a real slump, but only covering a field goal against the New York Giants? Carolina could have stolen a win from the Vikings last week if their receivers remembered what their hands were for, and the Giants don’t look any healthier than last week. If Carolina’s defense is going to get back on track, it could easily be against Daniel Jones and…*checks depth charts*…Dante Pettis? Panthers -2.5
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is now 4-2 with a +37 point differential, but I’m not ready to pick them getting less than a touchdown in Baltimore. The last three times these teams have met, Baltimore has won by an average of 31.7 points. Cincinnati’s improved defense will have more trouble against a fully-functional Ravens’ attack than they did against the Bears or Lions, and I can usually count on John Harbaugh not to take his foot off the gas when they have a lead. Ravens -6.5
Tennessee Titans +4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This game could very well turn into Derrick Henry versus the Chiefs, and Henry has been terrifying enough this year that he might win that matchup. Kansas City’s struggles have been overblown, and I don’t think the Titans will be able to come up with some of the backbreaking turnovers Mahomes and co. have gifted opponents this year. The Chiefs know they need this game badly, and I don’t expect either team to settle for a field goal. If it’s all touchdowns, I’ll hope for Mahomes to get the last one. Chiefs -4
New England Patriots -7 vs. New York Jets
I don’t think much has changed since the Patriots won this matchup by 19 points in Week 2, and now New England will be at home. Zach Wilson hasn’t looked much better in the games since, and I like what I’m seeing from Mac Jones. It feels a little too easy, but let’s go with it. Patriots -7
Green Bay Packers -10 vs. Washington Football Team
The Packers are favored by double digits, and I think it makes sense. Washington probably isn’t as good as Chicago, so in a direct comparison I’d be hoping for Aaron Rodgers to play a little worse just because he doesn’t have such strongly established ownership over Washington. The league seems to have figured out whatever made Taylor Heinecke capable of scoring 20+ points per game, even if a lot of it is just hoping for injuries to all of Washington’s offensive weapons. Still, something is nagging me about this year’s Packers. I’m not sure they’re ready to make things look easy just yet. Football Team +10
Los Angeles Rams -15.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford revenge game! Or at least as much revenge as you can try to get against a team who paid you over 200 million dollars. Fabricated storylines aside, there’s no reason for the Lions to hang in this game on the road, and whatever was making them so plucky early in the season seems to have worn off some. The Rams should win big. Rams -15.5
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Why are the Eagles getting such respect? I guess they’re better in literally every phase of the game according to DVOA, which helps to explain the line here. Still, I think Las Vegas is enjoying their time out of Jon Gruden’s shadow, and Philadelphia’s insistence on short passes can’t work forever. Raiders -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 vs. Chicago Bears
Do you remember a time, only about a year ago, when Tom Brady seemed old? He did! He forgot what down it was and managed to lose a game to my Chicago Bears in Week 5 last season. From there, the Bears went 4-7 and technically made the playoffs, while the Bucs went 8-3 and won the Super Bowl. I don’t think Tampa is struggling with the same issues one year later, and a close game would require some kind of offensive innovation from Matt Nagy. So…yeah. Buccaneers -13
Arizona Cardinals -17 vs. Houston Texans
Did you know that the Texans are bad? Oh, you did. Well, they’ve lost their three road games this year by an average of 26 points, and now they’re headed to Arizona to take on the 6-0 Cardinals. I have some concerns about Arizona, but none should be particularly glaring against this Houston team. Plus, the Texans’ coach really likes to punt, so garbage time isn’t as scary as it could be. Cardinals -17
San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Do we think the 49ers are good because they started the season 2-0? Why are they favored by more than 3 here? They have two close wins over the Lions and Eagles, and three straight losses since. Indianapolis has looked pretty good over the past few weeks, so unless the regression monster comes to bite Carson Wentz’s legs off and force Jacob Eason into action, I’m happy to get some points here. Colts +4
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston. On the road. Giving points? Geno Smith makes anything possible. I don’t like what I’ve seen from the Seahawks this season, but they hung tough against a Pittsburgh team with a strong defense and an aging quarterback who doesn’t want to throw the ball deep. Winston will probably be happy to throw deep, but Seattle might be just as happy to see him try. I think it’s going to be a low-scoring affair, so I like the home team and the points. Seahawks +4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
