2021 NFL Picks Week 6: It's Underdog(s)!
What do we think after five weeks? The Arizona Cardinals are the only remaining unbeaten team, the Kansas City Chiefs are last in the AFC West, and the AFC South is every bit as bad as we expected. It’s been hard to get a solid feel for any team, but we have to make our picks anyway. Starting with…
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I thought this was a layup, but Tampa and Philly really threaded the needle to hand us a loss. Up 14 with under 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Bucs gave up a touchdown to the Eagles and the ensuing 2-point conversion (as much as it hurt in the moment, it was the right call by Nick Sirianni). That would have been fine if Tampa had managed even a field goal on the other end, but of course Tom Brady managed a 12-play, 52-yard drive ending in kneeldowns. Tough breaks. Buccaneers -7
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Urban Meyer is not a good NFL coach, and I doubt he’s motivating anyone in the Jacksonville locker room. That said, Trevor Lawrence is a talented rookie QB with everything to prove, and the Dolphins rank a lowly 30th in DVOA. This game is on a neutral field, and 3.5 feels like too much for Miami to give. Jaguars +3.5
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This one feels a lot like the prior pick, only the Bengals are shockingly 12th in DVOA. Unfortunately for them, the Lions have been as feisty as any 0-5 team I can remember, and Cincinnati might be the easiest opponent they’ve faced. The Bengals can’t block, their quarterback has a throat contusion, and their defense is due for a down week. Maybe the Lions lose in heartbreaking fashion again, but it’s hard to lose a heartbreaker by more than three points. Lions +3.5
Chicago Bears +4.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay should win this game running away. They also should have beaten the Bengals running away, and probably should have won by double digits against the 49ers. Something still doesn’t feel quite right for the Packers, and I think the Bears’ defense is getting a jolt from seeing competent quarterback play for the first time since…the Josh McCown run? I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I think Chicago will put up a fight at home. Bears +4.5
Indianapolis Colts -10 vs. Houston Texans
Are we really ready to pick the Colts by double digits? Davis Mills is bad, but the Texans have made things interesting against everyone but the Bills this year. Indianapolis is not on the same level as Buffalo. Texans +10
Washington Football Team +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I know this is a dumb pick. Despite all of the hand-wringing, Kansas City still has the best offense in the league by DVOA, and without a couple of bad-bounce turnovers they would be sitting at 4-1 right now. Washington’s defense just isn’t good, and they’re starting Taylor Heinecke at quarterback. Still…the Football Team has averaged 24.2 points per game on offense, and the Chiefs’ defense gave up 30 to an Eagles team averaging just 21.0. I just don’t like giving this many points until Kansas City slows someone down. Football Team +7
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I was surprised to see this line as high as it was. Baltimore is good, but they needed a massive comeback to get a win over the Colts last week and they’re sitting at 8th in DVOA. The Chargers seem to be picking up steam, and slot in just behind at 11th in DVOA. Brandon Staley will come up with a gameplan to frustrate Lamar Jackson, and I don’t know if there’s a way for Baltimore to do the same to Justin Herbert. I love getting the half-point here. Chargers +3.5
New York Giants +10.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I wouldn’t like such a high spread in most circumstances, but this game is special. The Giants will be without Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones is returning from a scary concussion. Their defense is 26th in DVOA this year, and Sean McVay is still excited to try new things with Matthew Stafford. If the Rams go up early, covering two touchdowns won’t be an issue. Rams -10.5
Carolina Panthers -1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Carolina has crashed back to earth after a hot start, and most of the blame falls on the offense. Sam Darnold has regressed without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup, and their offense now sits at 26th in DVOA. Their defense hasn’t really missed a beat, though, and Minnesota has only managed 26 points in their last two games against the Lions and Browns. I think Carolina will right the ship at home and come out with a win here. Panthers -1.5
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I definitely made this pick expecting Nick Chubb to be available, but I suppose today’s report ruling out Kliff Kingsbury for Sunday balances things a bit. Kyler Murray has been fantastic, but something that could be an injury slowed him down last week against the 49ers. If he isn’t 100%, the Cardinals’ offense isn’t the same, and they’re going to need every bit of juice they can get against a Cleveland offense averaging 27.8 offensive points per game. I think these teams are comparable on a neutral field, so we’ll take the half point at home. Browns -2.5
New England Patriots +3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This was the easiest pick of the week. Nothing about Mac Jones suggests he’ll be able to keep up with the Dallas offense, and nothing I’ve seen from Dak Prescott suggests the Cowboys are slowing down. Since losing to Tampa on opening night, the Cowboys are 4-0 with a +55 point differential. The Patriots have a good defense, but it isn’t good enough to grind things into a game they can win against this opponent. Cowboys -3.5
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Jon Gruden has been fired, and I’m pretty happy about that. I’ll be writing a longer explanation of why it’s okay to be happy when someone loses their job on this website, but let’s think about what it means for this game. The Raiders are 3-2 with a surprisingly good defense and a surprisingly bad offense. Jon Gruden likely wasn’t directly responsible for either of those, but his departure should have very little to do with the Las Vegas defense. The Broncos are also 3-2, but their three wins have come against the Jets, Giants, and Jaguars. There may not be three sorrier teams in the league this year. I think we’re getting some extra points for a distraction that shouldn’t impact the Raiders’ players here. Raiders +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Let’s start with the general assumption that a home team gets a 3-point edge. If that’s the case, this line suggests the Steelers’ are 2-point favorites on a neutral field. What do we think the neutral-field line would be if Russell Wilson was healthy? That version of the Seahawks ranks 9th in DVOA, 5th on offense and 25th on defense. Their offensive line is 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed, and they’re facing off against a Pittsburgh defense with a healthy T.J. Watt. I would think the 2-3 Seahawks would be favored by one or two points at most if Russell Wilson was healthy, and Geno Smith is more than a touchdown worse than Russell Wilson. Steelers -5
Tennessee Titans +5.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Why isn’t the spread here a full touchdown? I guess they’re expecting a letdown from Buffalo after their big win over Kansas City, but Tennessee’s defense is 27th in DVOA. Josh Allen shouldn’t have any trouble putting up 30+ in this game, and unless the Titans can control the script from the jump, they’ll run into the same problems they faced against the Cardinals. Let’s go Buffalo!. Bills -5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
