2021 NFL Picks Week 8: Goliaths over Davids
Much like John Wick (he and I have a lot in common, other than the wide gap in badassery), I’m not sure if I can say I’m back, but a strong finish in the late games gave us a much-needed winning week. We’ll need our luck to continue in Week 8, where 15 games means a chance to make up some ground. We took a good first step with Thursday Night Football, so let’s cross our fingers and keep it going.
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Arizona Cardinals -6 vs. Green Bay Packers
I was really surprised to see the line so high for this game, with a strong-but-flawed Cardinals team hosting the Packers. My wife is a Cardinals fan, as are many of my friends from college. If you didn’t know before, Aaron Rodgers doesn’t let you have nice things. Still a good showing by Arizona, but a long way from covering a touchdown. Packers +6
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Colts should have no problem moving the ball on Tennessee’s defense, and yet…I just watched Patrick Mahomes struggle mightily to do just that. Is Carson Wentz going to come out on fire the way Indianapolis needs him to in order to reach the right game script? Tennessee has won three of the last four meetings between these teams, and Derrick Henry has almost always had his way. We’re taking the better offense. Titans +2.5
Detroit Lions +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I know I shouldn’t ever pick the Lions. Jared Goff is doing exactly what we thought Jared Goff would do outside the Sean McVay scheme, Dan Campbell might be legitimately psychotic, and Detroit is probably better off losing to get a good draft pick. But they’re hosting the Eagles and getting points! I think these teams are a lot alike, with bad defenses and offenses who only look good in garbage time. If they’re as similar as I think, I like getting the points and the coach who calls two fake punts and an onside kick in the same game. Lions +3
Houston Texans +14.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
No Line is Too Big: The Story of the 2021 Houston Texans. Houston is playing like the Lions or Eagles, but without any of the resolve or weirdly impressive garbage time displays. That combination makes them a really fun team to pick high lines against, because they’ll likely be down 14 in the first quarter and still looking to punt on every fourth down. The Rams withstood some impressive shenanigans from the Lions last week and still nearly covered a double-digit spread; this one should be far easier. Rams -14.5
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Who would you rather have at quarterback: 2021 Ben Roethlisberger, Injured Baker Mayfield, or Case Keenum? It’s remarkable how bleak things are for both teams’ passing offenses, but the Browns should get Nick Chubb back this week and their defense has actually been pretty good. It’s going to be an ugly game, but I’m excited to bet against this version of Roethlisberger on the road. Browns -3
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Really? Getting 3.5 points at home against the 49ers? It isn’t a good look to get waxed up and down the field by a mildly interested Tampa Bay team, but San Francisco’s efforts against the Colts weren’t much better. The Chicago defense should be salivating at the prospect of playing any of the 49ers quarterbacks, and Justin Fields will probably look better against the Niners than he did against the defending Super Bowl champs and Todd Bowles. Bears +3.5
Buffalo Bills -13.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
I guess it hasn’t sunk in just yet, but I’m happy to remind you that the Bills own the Dolphins. They’ve won their last six meetings, and only one came by single-digit points. Just a little over a month ago, Buffalo went into Miami and won 35-0. Even if Tua isn’t as bad as he is young, this is a tall order going into Buffalo. Bills all the way. Bills -13.5
New York Jets +9.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I think the Bengals-Ravens game was closer than the final score indicates, but the takeaway is the same: Cincinnati is a real playoff team. I don’t like anything I’ve seen out of the Jets this season, and this will be one of the easier tests Cincy’s defense has faced all year. Throw in your weekly dose of “why is Ja’Marr Chase so open?” and you have the makings of a blowout. Bengals -9.5
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Things are looking very down in Carolina, and their depressing showing against the Giants last week was easily the nadir of their season. In order to avoid a similarly embarrassing display this week, they’ll need to face a team soft enough on defense to let them recover from their severe case of the dropsies. Enter Atlanta. The Falcons are 30th in defensive DVOA, and I’m personally very mad at them for making me think Mike Davis would be a viable fantasy player before giving all of their running back touches to Cordarelle Patterson. Okay, so it’s a little personal. Do you like laying points with the Falcons? Panthers +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs. New England Patriots
Justin Herbert is one of my favorite players to watch, but something is weird with the Chargers’ offense. They clearly can’t run between the tackles, but they seem to want to a little too badly. Keenan Allen is spectacular, I think, but he disappears from the game plan for stretches. They’re fun to watch, but they haven’t become appointment viewing because it doesn’t seem easy for them just yet. New England isn’t going to make the hard things easy, which means we’ll need a virtuoso performance from Herbert to win big. I just haven’t seen the Chargers click well enough to cover a touchdown against a solid New England team. Patriots +5.5
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Geno Smith didn’t get much better at football by not playing, but Seattle has hung surprisingly tough in games against the Steelers and Saints. The Jacksonville defense is dead last in DVOA, so things should be easier for the Seahawks on that side of the ball. Trevor Lawrence could play well enough against a shaky Seattle defense to turn this game into a highlight reel, but I think he’s still young enough to make some critical mistakes. Seahawks -3
New Orleans Saints +5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston going up against Tom Brady. Todd Bowles picturing Jameis Winston as he designs pass rush schemes. Sean Payton wondering how he can cram Taysom Hill into a close game. None of these sound good for the Saints, and while their defense is good enough to lock up the bad teams, they’re going to give up points here. I like Tampa by a full touchdown, but we only have to give 5.5. Buccaneers -5.5
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Washington Football Team
Teddy Bridgewater and the banged-up Broncos’ offense should be able to make things work pretty smoothly against Washington’s 28th-ranked defense, especially playing at home. Taylor Heinecke could do some damage in garbage time, but he’s looking less and less impactful each week. If Vic Fangio can prevent the big plays to Terry McLaurin, this will be a two-score win. Broncos -3.5
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Why are the Vikings only getting 1.5? Dallas’s offense has been tearing through everyone, and Minnesota doesn’t have the right personnel to slow them down there. If Minnesota is going to win this game, they’ll have to hand the ball to Dalvin Cook and keep it away from the Cowboys’ offense. The Vikings make too many mistakes for that approach to work all game long. Cowboys -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. New York Giants
Even after their pathetic performance in Tennessee last weekend, the Chiefs are giving two scores to the Giants. There’s so much I don’t like here, from whatever short-circuits an offense enough to only manage three points against the Titans to an athletic quarterback in Daniel Jones getting a chance to run through Kansas City’s 31st-ranked defense. But something is nagging at me, and it won’t let me bank on the Chiefs falling flat two weeks in a row against inferior competition, especially in a primetime home game. Chiefs -9.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
