2022 NFL Picks Week 5: Not Enough Points
Last week we had one line of 7 points or more, and the Patriots nearly won outright in Green Bay. This week, we have six, and only three lines of a field goal or less. But we don’t care how big the lines are unless they’re big enough, and I’m just not seeing it this week. Let’s see who else we’re picking besides all six 7+ point favorites!
Denver Broncos -3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Thursday Night Football got me again, but I’m hardly the only victim. I thought Indianapolis would be lucky to find a single touchdown against a tough Denver defense, but I also thought their defense was bad enough to give one up. The Broncos probably should have covered; a field goal instead of a baffling interception by Russell Wilson pushes their lead to 6, and with touchdowns not allowed the Colts wouldn’t have enough time to tie it up with two field goals. I really feel bad for anyone else who tuned in for any part of the game last night, so let’s take the L and move on. Broncos -3.5
Green Bay Packers -8 vs. New York Giants
I think I understand the logic behind the number here, with Green Bay’s run defense letting inferior teams like the Bears and Patriots hang in games far longer than they should. The Giants’ offense has looked lively (by their standards) with a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley and..? They’re getting good play out of their left tackle, but they simply aren’t in the same class as the Packers on either side of the football. This line would make more sense to me if the game was being played in New Jersey, but I like Green Bay giving single digits to Daniel Jones. Packers -8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers have won all four games against the Falcons since Tom Brady arrived, and the last three wins have come by an average of 17.7 points per game. The Falcons ran the ball all over Cleveland’s 30th-ranked run defense last week, but Tampa Bay presents a much stiffer challenge. They fell to 17th after a rough showing against Kansas City last week, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes put defenses in a different bind than almost any head coach-quarterback combo in the league. Let’s just say Marcus Mariota doesn’t demand quite the same level of respect in the passing game as Mahomes, which means Todd Bowles and the Bucs won’t have to devote so many resources to it. With their run defense back to full strength and many of their offensive weapons back on the field, this will be the first big win for Tom Brady and co. in 2022. Buccaneers -8.5
Minnesota Vikings -7 vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears have been oddly competitive with the help of a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their defense has some promising young pieces, but nothing can cover up how bad their offense has been, especially when teams put them in a spot where they need to pass. This week the Vikings get to play them in the early window (no primetime Kirk Cousins concerns) at home, and I don’t think Chicago has answers for the Justin Jefferson-Adam Thielen combination. The chances of an offensive explosion for Minnesota are better than the chances of the Bears scoring 20 points, so a touchdown isn’t too daunting. Vikings -7
New England Patriots -3 vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions fired Matt Patricia in November of 2020, and they have a legitimate case for a revenge game here as the team who did the firing. It’s a little amazing what the Lions have accomplished since the (very predictable) mismanagement of Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn, but they still have some problems as evidenced by their 32nd-ranked defense. We’re just getting the standard home line here, but I’m worried about what Jared Goff will accomplish against the coach who notably held him and the Rams to 3 points in the 2018-19 Super Bowl. Bill Belichick certainly knows how to make things difficult for Goff, and I’m not sure the Lions know how to make things difficult for anyone, even Bailey Zappe. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris should be enough to carry New England to a win here. Patriots -3
Jacksonville Jaguars -7 vs. Houston Texans
Last year, Houston won four games and “earned” the third overall pick. Two of those four wins came against the Jaguars, who used the first overall pick on edge rusher Travon Walker. Everything is looking different for Jacksonville this year, because it’s amazing what getting rid of Urban Meyer can do (maybe take notes, Fox). Houston has looked competitive in all of their games so far, but facing the Chargers or Broncos might be less of a challenge than this version of Jacksonville. After a tough loss to Philadelphia last week, I expect Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence to be looking for a big bounceback, and Houston’s 27th-ranked defense looks like an easy target. I expect Jacksonville’s pass rush to make Davis Mills uncomfortable and turn this game into a rout. Jaguars -7
New York Jets +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Since 2017, the Dolphins have lost to the Jets twice in ten meetings. The average score of those games has been Miami 21.6, New York 15. More importantly, have the Jets given us anything to really believe in this season? Zach Wilson didn’t actually look good in their game against Pittsburgh last week, and they’ll need him to light up Miami’s secondary in this game to stay competitive. Sure, the Dolphins are down to their backup, but Touchdown Teddy gets to throw short passes to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill all day long. Give me a couple of those and a broken tackle and Miami is racing past 20 points. This line should be a lot higher seeing as Miami has the better quarterback, offensive weapons, and defense. Dolphins -3.5
Washington Commanders +2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
I know Tennessee has been disappointing, but they haven’t actually been bad. Washington very much has, following up their season-opening win against the Jaguars with three straight double-digit losses. Even if Tennessee can’t dominate this game, they should absolutely be expected to win, and a field goal doesn’t seem like enough against Carson Wentz. All we need is one well-timed Jeffery Simmons pressure to seal the game with a big turnover. Titans -2.5
Buffalo Bills -14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Picking against the Steelers as an underdog has been dangerous ever since Mike Tomlin took over in 2007, and I can’t imagine they’ve been double-digit dogs enough times to create a meaningful sample size. This week they’re facing a Buffalo team ranked 1st in DVOA despite somehow ranking 10th in offensive DVOA. Their defense has been stellar, and they’re facing rookie Kenny Pickett who managed three interceptions on 13 pass attempts against the Jets last week. Knowing the Bills are happy to pour on points late in games, getting two touchdowns with a rookie QB just isn’t enough. Bills -14
Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are 2-2 this year with an injured quarterback and wins over two teams with a combined record of 1-6-1. So why are they favored by 3 points on the road here? Cleveland didn’t look great against Atlanta last week, but it’s not like the Chargers took a big step forward with a closer-than-it-should-have-been win over the winless Texans. Nick Chubb is too good for the Browns to flail around on offense against a team who hasn’t fully solved their run defense issues, and a banged-up Justin Herbert is working in a system seemingly designed to avoid explosive plays. Even if they get a lead, I think Cleveland will catch up and make things close at the end. Browns +3
New Orleans Saints -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Huh. I’m the last person to believe in Geno Smith, but why are the 1-3 Saints favored by more than a field goal against the 2-2 Seahawks? Seattle is ranked higher in DVOA, and New Orleans has really struggled to crack 20 points in their games this year. Even if Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are all back this week, do we expect them to all be 100%? I can see them winning, but asking the Saints to run away with this one is too much. Seahawks +5.5
Carolina Panthers +5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Carolina’s defense has been pretty good this year, but San Francisco’s has been exceptional. Even if Jimmy G struggles to get things going through the air, we know the 49ers can run the ball effectively enough to put points on the board. Do we have any reason to believe Baker Mayfield can do the same against the team ranked 1st against the run and 4th against the pass? Unless the Panthers can get two defensive scores, this one should be a runaway. 49ers -5
Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is a fun one, where the Cowboys are underdogs despite having an edge in every major category of DVOA. The Rams just aren’t a good team right now, and it starts with their inability to protect Matt Stafford in the pocket. It’s a big point of concern going against the team ranked first in adjusted sack rate, with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence leading Dallas to a 5th-place ranking in defensive DVOA. The Cowboys leave a lot to be desired on offense, but Cooper Rush has looked competent, and if Aaron Donald doesn’t regularly eat him alive before he can take the easy shots he gets, Dallas should win outright. Cowboys +4.5
Arizona Cardinals +5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
A classic weird spot for the Eagles, playing a team with a wild card at quarterback and just enough flashes of brilliance to make me nervous. I think the line here is taking that into account, though; you wouldn’t usually see the team ranked 2nd in DVOA favored by less than a touchdown over the team ranked 29th in any venue. Philadelphia is going to dominate the line on both sides of the ball in this game, and Arizona doesn’t have the offensive weapons to create enough splash plays to balance the scales. Eagles -5
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I love Lamar Jackson, but I can’t figure out why this line is more than a field goal. Cincinnati owned Baltimore last year (combined score of 82-38), and even if the Ravens weren’t at full strength it suggests they came up with some kind of successful defensive gameplan. The Bengals’ defense has continued their success from the end of last year, and Baltimore hasn’t shown the kind of offensive creativity to produce solutions beyond Lamar. I like Cincinnati’s scheme and weapons too much to pass up the extra half point on this line. Bengals +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I haven’t loved picking the Chiefs by a touchdown or more for a while, but the Raiders are one of the best opportunities we’ll get. Kansas City put up 89 points in their two meetings last season, and there’s only so much a new defensive coordinator can change. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders are coming off their best offensive performance of the Josh McDaniels era with 32 points on the Broncos. Derek Carr only threw for 188 yards in that game, and they only scored one offensive touchdown. You can’t settle for field goals and keep pace with the Chiefs, and they won’t give you 11 possessions to figure things out. Mahomes is just too damn good for this line to be only a touchdown, especially when his defense ranks 14th in DVOA. Chiefs -7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
