2022 NFL Picks Week 6: If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It
Alright, we took an L last week. Only one, though! The road teams had been treating us well the past few weeks, and an early glance at the lines pointed us their way again. Let’s see where they’ll take us!
Chicago Bears EVEN vs. Washington Commanders
In case you hadn’t noticed, I am a Bears fan. They’re even at home in this game, which suggests they’re two-and-a-half points worse than the Washington Commanders, who are one of four teams lower than the Bears in DVOA. And yet…I think Washington has more to offer on offense than Chicago. Their receivers are certainly better, and their offensive line might have a slight edge too. Most importantly, they’re genuinely good at rushing the passer, while the only thing the Bears do well is Special Teams. I’m not sure how we’re 4th in a category we botched badly enough to blow a game against the Giants, but it isn’t enough to make up for the edge Washington should enjoy getting after Justin Fields and the offensive line ranked 32nd in pass protection. Commanders to win
New Orleans Saints +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Saints have built most of their reputation in the post-Drew Brees era by grinding teams into a paste with a strong offensive line and shutting down offenses like Tampa Bay’s on a regular basis. Cincinnati’s offense is almost nothing like Tampa Bay’s. Marcus Lattimore has given Mike Evans a lot of trouble in all of his matchups, but he can only guard one of JaMarr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins. Cincinnati’s defense is playing too well and Joe Burrow has too many weapons to fall short of a field goal against a New Orleans offense with injuries to their number one quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Bengals -2
Indianapolis Colts -2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It was less than a month ago when the Jaguars beat the Colts 24-0. This game is in Indianapolis, but how different could the teams really be at this point? I know Jacksonville looked rough against Philadelphia and Houston the last two weeks, but they didn’t look any worse than Indianapolis facing Denver and Tennessee. Jacksonville should be favored here, so I’m excited to be getting any points. Jaguars +2
Miami Dolphins +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Tua and Teddy are both still out, right? Miami has some nice weapons and there’s always a good chance for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to break a big play, but third string quarterbacks are considered emergency plans for a reason. It would take a miracle for…*checks notes*…Skylar Thompson to win an NFL game, and a field goal isn’t enough to make me nervous. Vikings -3
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. New England Patriots
On one hand, the Browns have looked better passing the ball than I ever expected with Jacoby Brissett under center. With Nick Chubb crushing everyone in the run game, the only question left is Cleveland’s defense, which somehow ranks 30th in DVOA. On the other hand, we have Bailey Zappe leading a Patriots team with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge driving the offense. It should be a very stoppable force, and it has been; New England has been winning, but Zappe has thrown for a total of 287 yards in two games against very bad defenses in Green Bay and Detroit. I just have a little more faith in Bill Belichick to make things hard on his former quarterback than I do in Cleveland to slow down the New England run game. Patriots +3
Green Bay Packers -7.5 vs. New York Jets
Okay, so the Packers lost outright to the Giants last week in London. It wasn’t great, and it looks like Green Bay has no idea how to make halftime adjustments. Now they get to play the other New York-but-not-actually-New York team in a real home game, and they’re giving a little more than a touchdown despite sporting a point differential of +1 through five games. I’m not saying I love it…but I do like picking against Zach Wilson when people are starting to get excited about him. The Jets just aren’t good enough to put the clamps on Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers need to log another big win to be taken seriously. I’m just counting on the Jets to be more comparable to the Bears than the Patriots or Giants here. Packers -7.5
New York Giants +5.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Giants join the Jaguars as the biggest surprises to me through the first five weeks of the season, and they have one thing in common: upgrading from an incompetent coach to a solid NFL coach. Brian Daboll has been making life easy on Daniel Jones, but their one loss this season came against the only defense they’ve faced ranked higher than 17th in DVOA. Baltimore’s defense is sitting at 14th, and while they might struggle to stop the run, they’ve been facing Daboll offenses in Buffalo for the past few years. The Ravens held the Bills to 17 points in 2021 and 2019, so I think they’ll be ready for what Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley throw at them. On the other side of the ball, Lamar Jackson shouldn’t have any trouble continuing his MVP-caliber campaign against a team ranked 25th in defensive DVOA. Ravens -5.5
Atlanta Falcons +5.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta has been highly competitive all year, sporting a point differential of -4 through five games. Three of those games have come against teams in the top half of the league in DVOA, so it hasn’t purely been a product of weak competition. The Niners pose a different challenge, though, with the league’s best run defense and a defensive line designed to turn early leads into blowouts. Kyle Shanahan shouldn’t have any trouble gashing a weak Atlanta defense, and if they force the Falcons into a passing script it’s going to get out of control. 49ers -5.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +8 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not passing any judgment on Kenny Pickett, but the Bucs rank 3rd in defensive DVOA and Tom Brady is starting to get his weapons back. I don’t think Todd Bowles is going to give Pickett a chance to find weapons like George Pickens and Diontae Johnson, and without T.J. Watt I can’t see a defensive slugfest. I don’t really care where the game is taking place, Tampa should win by double digits. Buccaneers -8
Los Angeles Rams -10.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Matt Rhule is gone! Shockingly, someone who had a good track record at Temple and Baylor couldn’t make things work in the NFL. It’s almost as though the jobs are radically different! The Rams have looked dreadful most of this season, but Carolina has been worse in almost every phase of the game. I don’t think the Panthers will enjoy the same kind of road fan advantage Dallas did, and Sean McVay and Matt Stafford will be looking to get right this game. Watching Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey get after backup quarterback PJ Walker won’t be pretty, either. Rams -10.5
Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I feel like this line is begging me to go Seattle, and I just need to zag. Yes, Geno Smith has looked better than I was willing to believe, but Seattle is 2-3 with wins over the Broncos (13th in DVOA) and Lions (24th in DVOA). Their defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone, and Kyler Murray has been looking for an excuse to perform in the first half all season long. This might be the week Arizona looks good for four full quarters. Cardinals -3
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Kansas City is coming off a short week, Buffalo has looked dominant in games unaffected by weather, and Gabriel Davis seemed to be throwing back to his playoff performance as he popped off against Pittsburgh last week. But this line is giving Patrick Mahomes points at home! I don’t know if the numbers support it, and I don’t know if I can find a logical argument, but I’m not passing on a chance to take Mahomes and Andy Reid as underdogs. Chiefs +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia is the better team through five weeks, but what the Cowboys are doing with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence is special. No one has been safe against the Dallas pass rush this season, and they haven’t been sending extra rushers. I don’t think I’m ready to pick Cooper Rush (who hasn’t topped 235 yards passing in four starts) against a top team, but getting almost a touchdown with a dominant defense against a limited quarterback? Sign me up! Cowboys +5.5
Los Angeles Chargers -5 vs. Denver Broncos
Oh good, a clash of two teams best known for underperforming offensively. Denver’s problems have been a bit of a surprise, with Russell Wilson and first-time head coach Nathanial Hackett cracking 20 points once in five tries. The Chargers don’t seem to be struggling at all, but a 9th-place ranking in offensive DVOA is disappointing for a team with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and an above-average offensive line. Their play-calling is atrocious, especially in big moments, but they still score points. It’s not pretty, but the Chargers are averaging 24.4 points per game this season. Even the Broncos will struggle to hold them under 20 points, and I just haven’t seen anything from Denver to suggest they’ll keep up It’s a big spread, but I need more from the Broncos to feel hesitant about it. Chargers -5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
