2022 NFL Picks Week 4: What's the Worst that Could Happen?
Now that’s more like it! We’re still four games under .500, but last week was exactly what we needed to start our climb back towards the top. I wish it was as easy as picking the road teams each week, but we know Vegas will tweak their lines just a bit if that starts looking like a viable strategy. The question is: when? First glance at the lines this week had me leaning towards the Away column again, so let’s see how these go!
Cincinnati Bengals -4 vs. Miami Dolphins
It’s probably not great karmically to pick a team who somehow skirted the league’s protocols last week when their quarterback was blatantly concussed. It’s the same team who lost multiple draft picks for offseason tampering and showed clear interest in Deshaun Watson even after he was accused of 20+ incidents of sexual misconduct, so it’s not exactly shocking, but the league’s…ineffectiveness? Inability? Unwillingness? in investigating the incident has felt a bit strange. That said…the Dolphins are 3-0 with two wins over quality teams, flashing big play potential every down and stringing together just enough stops against two great offenses in Buffalo and Baltimore. Cincinnati has been sloppy, failing to hold Mitchell Trubisky or Cooper Rush under 20 points. If it was the standard field goal, maybe I’d go with the home team. Four points is a little too much knowing the Dolphins could hit a big shot to Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill in garbage time to make things close. Dolphins +4
New Orleans Saints +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Not actually a home game for the Saints as this game will be played in London, the full field goal makes a bit more sense. It’s a hard matchup to parse analytically, though. What is the “primetime” impact of a Sunday morning slot in England on Kirk Cousins? He came out and laid a big egg against the Eagles in their Monday Night Football matchup in Week 2, but do his powers diminish the same way across the pond? Is Sunday afternoon at Hotspur stadium like a night game in the former colonies?
In all seriousness, the Saints have a very good defense and the Vikings haven’t strung together two competent halves of football all season. I don’t trust the Vikings’ defense to put their foot on any necks, which makes me like the points against any team who can hold them under 20. New Orleans definitely can. Saints +3
Baltimore Ravens +3 vs. Buffalo Bills
It’s not entirely fair to present this as a matchup between the AFC favorite and Lamar Jackson because the Ravens do have the league’s best kicker in Justin Tucker. Baltimore will need more than that to keep up with a Bills team coming off a tough loss to Miami and looking to get a title run back on track. Buffalo has the defensive personnel to keep Baltimore from the broken play touchdowns they’ve thrived on, and the Ravens don’t have the secondary they need to slow Josh Allen down. Bills -3
New York Giants -3.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Alright, I’m a little offended here. Daniel Jones is a bad quarterback and the Bears might have a good defense. The Giants don’t offer resistance on defense (28th in DVOA) and Chicago has been running the ball very well. It’s not enough to prevent panic over their hesitance to let Justin Fields throw the football (45 pass attempts in three games), but it’s something. If the Bears can keep Saquon Barkley from breaking any long touchdown runs, they can absolutely lose by just a field goal. Bears +3.5
Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m not sure I have a good statistical argument for this one, but something is bothering me about Cleveland’s success with Jacoby Brissett through the first three games. Atlanta doesn’t have the defensive personnel to shut the Browns down, but their offense has been productive and Cleveland’s defense has been a big disappointment thus far. This line just looks suspiciously low (kind of like the Dolphins line, in hindsight), so maybe Vegas knows something I don’t. Let’s go Atlanta! Falcons +1.5
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Two of the season’s biggest surprises come into Week 4 with a combined record of 5-1. Both fan bases are right to be excited, but there are warning signs when you look a little closer. Philadelphia has jumped out to big leads but failed to pour on points in second halves, while Jacksonville somewhat inexplicably allowed Carson Wentz to bring Washington back to a victory in Week 1. I still don’t believe in either team as a true title contender, but I think they both belong in the tier just below. If I’m right, 6.5 is a big spread for teams of comparable quality. Jaguars +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. New York Jets
Pittsburgh is pretty much living the 2018 Chicago Bears life, with a strong defense tied to an anchor shaped like Mitchell Trubisky. The Jets don’t even have a strong defense to brag about, and Zach Wilson is making his season debut this week. He isn’t an upgrade over Joe Flacco from what I can tell, so the Steelers should be able to win by at least a touchdown at home. Steelers -3.5
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
It took a lot of lucky bounces for the Colts to beat the Chiefs last week, and they still barely pulled it off. Tennessee has at least looked like a team capable of executing the basics, and Derrick Henry has shown flashes of being a gameplan-worthy running back again. Neither team looks great, but it’s a nice opportunity to get points against a Colts team who isn’t above-average in any phase of the game. Titans +3.5
Houston Texans +5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I can’t tell you why the Chargers and their fans aren’t allowed to have nice things. It’s not like they’re the only team in the league with an asshole for an owner, and they were the second team in the league to move to Los Angeles from a city where they had a strong fan base. The curse seems strong again this year with the news of Joey Bosa’s injury added on to Justin Herbert’s dodgy ribs. They might be struggling to find explosive plays on offense, but if there’s an opportunity for them to notch a big win this has to be it. Houston just lost to my Bears, and their offensive ineptitude won’t expose Bosa’s absence the way another team might. Unless Herbert has a health setback, the Chargers need to win this game by more than a touchdown. Chargers -5
Detroit Lions -4.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I like some things I’ve seen from the Lions this season, but Seattle dropped 51 points on them in Week 17 last year. Russell Wilson was the team’s quarterback then, but Rashaad Penny also ran for 170 yards on 25 carries. The Seahawks should be able to run the ball again this week, and if the Lions stick to their smashmouth ways (20th in pass play percentage) we could have a run-heavy, back-and-forth affair on our hands. I can’t believe I’m taking Geno Smith on the road, but I’ll take the points against Detroit. Seahawks +4.5
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Washington Commanders
Carson Wentz had a nice first game against Jacksonville, but the skittish quarterback we saw flailing the Colts out of the playoffs against the Jaguars last season is back in a new uniform. Since their come-from-behind victory in Week 1, Washington’s offense has looked rough against the Lions and putrid against the Eagles. Dallas brings Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence to the table along with a ball-hawking secondary. I love the idea of giving just a field goal against the version of Wentz we should see against this Cowboys’ defense. Cowboys -3
Carolina Panthers -2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Okay, let’s pump the brakes. Arizona has only played one really good half of football, but they’ve also faced the Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams, all playoff teams last season. Carolina just squeezed out their first win despite facing Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, and Jameis Winston. Kyler Murray is way better than all three of those guys, and the Panthers just don’t seem to have the firepower to keep up if the Cards get something going on offense. It won’t be pretty, but I like getting points in this matchup. Cardinals +2
Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson has to look good at some point with his new team, right? The Raiders have a decent pass rush but a squishy defense overall, and their new offense under Josh McDaniels hasn’t quite found its footing yet. They won’t have an easy time against Denver’s 5th-ranked defense, so if the Broncos can get any sort of offensive rhythm at all they should be able to win outright. Broncos +2.5
Green Bay Packers -10 vs. New England Patriots
I’m probably just holding on to old biases, but it’s weird to see New England getting double digit points. It feels like the Packers are doing their usual thing of slow-playing the regular season without feeling much pressure from their NFC North brethren, but their offense (9th in DVOA) has been surprisingly middling so far. The Pats don’t have the same kind of dominant defense they’ve had in recent years, but they’re competent, and Bill Belichick lives for coaching challenges like this. If New England can get their running game going like the Bears did, they can keep it a one score game until late. Patriots +10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I wish the line was closer, but I can’t buy into the Bucs until some of their offensive weapons get back on the field. Tampa Bay has scored just 51 points in three games this season, and Mike Evans coming back alone isn’t enough to shift them back into high gear. Even if Kansas City struggles a bit against Tampa’s top-ranked defense, I don’t think they’ll be held down all game long. After an improbable and embarrassing loss to Indianapolis last week, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will get back on track here. Chiefs -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Kyle Shanahan has pretty much owned the Rams since coming over to the 49ers (7-4 overall and 6-1 in the last 7), and the way San Francisco’s defense has been playing makes me very nervous to pick Matthew Stafford here. For whatever reason, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey haven’t been able to lock down San Francisco the same way they have other teams, so I don’t think Jimmy G and the Niners will look as bad as they did against Denver last week. If Trent Williams was healthy, I’d probably take the home team here, but without his impact on the running game I’m not sure the 49ers have the juice they need to win outright. Rams +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
