2022 NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend: Rollin' With the Home-ies
“Super” Wild Card Weekend has arrived, and we NFL fans will be treated to six games over three days to kick off the postseason. We have two home underdogs this week, both of whom beat their opponents earlier this season, and another home favorite who managed to win 13 games despite a negative point differential. We’re leaning heavily into the home teams this week, marking just the third time all season we’re picking more home teams than away. Let’s dig into the details!
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
San Francisco 49ers -10 vs. Seattle Seahawks
These division rivals met twice in the regular season, with San Francisco winning 27-7 in Week 2 and 21-13 in Week 15. Seattle enjoyed some hype when they beat Arizona to move to 6-3 in Week 9, but stumbled to a 9-8 finish and only qualified for the playoffs at the last minute on the “strength” of their overtime win over the Baker Mayfield Rams and some help from the Lions. Looking at Seattle’s schedule, the line feels big; only two of their eight losses came by double digits, the aforementioned Week 2 matchup and a Week 16 loss in Kansas City. The Niners break a lot of line tendencies, though, with 10 of their 13 wins coming by double digits. Since Brock Purdy took over in Week 13, San Francisco is 6-0 with four double-digit wins, and they now have all of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell set to play. I’m a little nervous picking a Kyle Shanahan team to keep the pedal to the floor (they were up 21-3 in Week 15 before giving up 10 unanswered points), but I think the Niners’ defense is too good to let Geno Smith keep things close in a game where Purdy and a ridiculous assortment of playmakers should reach 30 points. 49ers -10
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Jaguars lit the Chargers up in their Week 3 meeting, racking up 38 points and holding Justin Herbert to his second-worst QBR of the season. They actually rank higher than the Chargers in DVOA, which makes the line here a bit surprising; they have one fewer win, but actually have a better point differential at +54 than Los Angeles at +7. After that Week 3 win, Jacksonville lost five straight games before ending the season with five straight wins to clinch the AFC South. The Chargers were looking similarly strong, winning four straight before a puzzling performance against the Broncos in Week 18. With little on the line, they rolled out their starters and gave up 31 points to Russell Wilson, losing the game and Mike Williams and Joey Bosa to injury. Both have a chance to return this week, but the Mike Williams injury in particular has me worried; their season really took off when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both started looking healthy, and I just don’t think their offense can function with either receiver diminished. Only five of the Chargers’ ten wins have come by more than three points, and I’m comfortable taking two and the home team here. Jaguars +2
Buffalo Bills -9.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
We were lucky enough to jump on this line before Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out, but some chance of that was certainly baked in. Like the Niners-Seahawks line above, this one feels a bit large for division rivals; they split their two regular season meetings with Buffalo winning the combined score 51-50. With Tua and Teddy both out, though, Skylar Thompson is slated to make his third career start. He’ll bring a 57.1% completion rate and a 1:3 TD-INT ratio into this matchup with Buffalo’s 4th-ranked defense, so unless the Dolphins can run the ball effectively enough to shorten the game and keep Josh Allen off the field, it should get ugly fast. It’s not impossible, but without a genuine fear of a passing game, Buffalo should have what it takes to keep Miami under 20 points. The Bills’ offense dropped 47 and 36 points on the Patriots and Chiefs in the playoffs last year, and I expect a similar performance this time around. Bills -9.5
Minnesota Vikings -3 vs. New York Giants
It has been less than a month since the Giants traveled to Minnesota and lost on a last-second, 61-yard field goal. Since then, the Vikings got stomped by the Packers and beat the Bears while the Giants crushed the Colts and then rested everyone in a loss to the Eagles. Neither team looks particularly scary, but New York has an edge in total DVOA and sports the only above-average unit in the matchup with their 10th-ranked offense. Justin Jefferson might be able to win this game for Minnesota by himself, but it's hard to see the Vikings dominating the game given what Brian Daboll has already achieved this season. I don’t know if I can pick Daniel Jones to win a road playoff game, but I like the Giants with a full field goal. Giants +3
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson’s status is still up in the air, but at this point it’s hard to see him suiting up and playing at 100% after missing more than a month of action. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from the Ravens’ defense since adding Roquan Smith, but they haven’t scored 20 points since Week 12 in Jacksonville. They’re 3-3 since then, but Cincinnati’s offense brings a lot more to the table than the Broncos, Steelers, Browns, or Falcons. We saw the Bengals score 27 points and win by 11 in Week 18, and while I’m worried about the impact of Alex Cappa’s injury, I’m not seeing a dramatically different result here. Bengals -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This might be the matchup I’m most looking forward to this weekend. The Bucs won the Week 1 matchup between these teams 19-3, and their seasons have gone in much different directions since. Tampa Bay finished 8-9 with just one other win against a team with a winning record while Dallas went 12-4 and picked up wins over other playoff teams like the Bengals, Giants, Eagles, and Vikings despite Dak Prescott missing five games due to injury. The Buccaneers look mediocre on offense and defense by DVOA while the Cowboys get a huge boost from their occasionally-dominant defense, and only the Patriots finished below Tampa Bay in special teams DVOA. The Cowboys should absolutely be able to win this game…but I’m getting a chance to pick Tom Brady, at home, getting points against a Mike McCarthy-led team. Dallas thrives on getting after the quarterback and forcing mistakes, but the Bucs have a relatively healthy and effective offensive line protecting a quarterback with over 20 years of experience and a long track record of getting the ball out before the pass rush can affect him. On the other side of the ball, Dallas seems equally capable of stacking up points on top defenses (40 points against Philly in Week 16) and stumbling to uninspiring finishes against lesser units (27 points against Houston in Week 14). Maybe I’m way off and Micah Parsons ends Tom Brady’s career, but I like the odds of an upset in Wild Card Weekend’s finale. Buccaneers +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
