2022 NFL Picks Week 18: Means, Motive, Opportunity
The final week of the season is here! All it takes is a little 16-0 and we’ll be right at .500 for the year. To get there, we’ll need to answer some key questions: which team can win this game (means)? Which team needs to win this game and which team kinda needs to lose it (motive)? And which favored opponents are in a position to leave the door open just enough (opportunity)? Let’s see how the the categorical trinity plays out in each matchup below!
Las Vegas Raiders +9 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders have nothing at stake here besides extending the audition of Jarrett Stidham, NFL Starting QB in 2023. The Chiefs have a lot of incentive, with a win giving them a playoff bye week and kind-of home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Even with plenty of motive, I don’t like this year’s Chiefs covering big spreads, especially with Darren Waller and Davante Adams lining up for the Raiders. Raiders +9
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Everything in the AFC South is on the line here, with the winner advancing to the postseason and the loser (almost certainly) heading into the offseason. Jacksonville whooped the Titans back in Week 14, and nothing about Josh Dobbs’ performance last week makes me think he can overcome a big deficit. Mike Vrabel has a penchant for keeping things ugly when his team needs it, though, and they could use an ugly slugfest here. I like the Jags to win but not by a full touchdown. Titans +6.5
New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs, so this is just a race to the offseason. I like the way New Orleans has been playing lately, with three straight wins over the Falcons, Browns, and Eagles. It never looks pretty, but if they can put the game in Sam Darnold’s hands, winning by 6 should be easy. Saints -3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Jadeveon Clowney is a late scratch from this game due to vibes, which doesn’t bode well for a team already lacking incentive. The Steelers have a chance to keep Mike Tomlin’s semi-impressive, semi-absurd no-losing-season streak alive, and seem to have found some life with Kenny Pickett under center. Less than a field goal at home seems like an easy pick against the dysfunctional Browns. Steelers -2.5
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Houston Texans
Houston has some motivation to lose this game and hang on to the number 1 pick in next year’s draft, but Lovie Smith tends to get real effort out of his players. In a game against Sam Ehlinger, that’s more than enough for me to like Houston as underdogs! Texans +2.5
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of next year’s number 1 pick! The Bears can lock up the worst record in the league with a loss here and a Texans’ win, and without Justin Fields I don’t see how they’ll come out on top. What’s that, you say? Nathan Peterman is under center for Chicago? Even the negative point differential Vikings can win by a touchdown against him! Vikings -6
Buffalo Bills -7 vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have a good defense, but we haven’t seen that matter against Josh Allen. New England had a good defense last year as well (4th in DVOA) and only held Buffalo below 30 points when they had cataclysmic weather on their side. The Bills by a touchdown (with a share of home-field advantage on the line, I guess?) at home feels easy. Bills -7
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. New York Jets
I can get points with a team playing against Skylar Thompson? And they already won a matchup with him by 23 points this year? Don’t twist my arm! Jets +3
Cincinnati Bengals -9 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson again this week, and that’s enough for me to take the highly motivated Bengals with their full complement of offensive weapons. Cincy lost a close one when these teams met earlier in the season, but they’ve been hitting their stride and need a win to remain in contention for the top seed. The Ravens just haven’t been able to find the juice they need on offense, and I don’t think they can hold the Bengals below 28 points again. Bengals -9
Atlanta Falcons -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If the line looks weird, it’s because the Bucs are expected to rest just about everyone this week. The NFC South is locked up, and they seem to think Tom Brady doesn’t need extra reps before the playoffs. When Tampa has so little to play for, Atlanta should win by a touchdown without too much trouble. Falcons -4
San Francisco 49ers -14 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Niners certainly aren’t frauds, but they were a bit exposed against the Raiders last week. Brock Purdy is going to struggle and make mistakes at some point, and this is a good game for it against an opponent who can’t really take advantage. I think the Cardinals will come in with a boring game plan and look to get out quickly, making it hard for San Francisco to open up a lead big enough for this spread. Cardinals +14
Washington Commanders +7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys still have an outside shot at the NFC East crown, and they get to play against Sam Howell and the Commanders. I guess turning to Carson Wentz with the season on the line wasn’t a good idea in 2023, and Howell certainly isn’t going to fare better against the Dallas defense. A touchdown isn’t asking much when the Cowboys have something to play for. Cowboys -7
Philadelphia Eagles -14 vs. New York Giants
Philadelphia needs to win to secure the 1-seed in the NFC, and the Giants have absolutely nothing to gain. With that in mind, they’re resting most of their starters and avoiding injury. With Jalen Hurts back for the Eagles, it would take a true masterclass for the Giants to cover two touchdowns when they don’t have a real reason to try. Eagles -14
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Seattle has a big edge in motivation, but the Rams and Baker Mayfield might enjoy a chance to stick it to a division rival. I don’t know if they can pull off the upset, but they kept the game close when they met in early December, and Seattle’s defense doesn’t give me a lot of faith that they can cover more than a field goal against a non-Jets quarterback. It’s just too many points to pass up. Rams +5.5
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The line here reflects the possibility that the Chargers won’t have anything to gain by playing their starters, but I like any opportunity to get points against Russell Wilson and the Broncos. More importantly, Russell Wilson has finally thrown more touchdown passes than he has bathrooms in his home, so he really doesn’t have anything to play for here. I like the possibility of the Chargers needing the win enough to take the points. Chargers +3
Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs. Detroit Lions
There’s a lot of excitement around Aaron Rodgers and the Packers as they’ve moved closer to a playoff berth despite a 4-8 start to the season, but I think it needs to be tempered a bit. They picked up wins against the Bears, Rams, concussed-Tua Dolphins, and Vikings in their recent win streak, which only inspires a touch of confidence. Detroit’s offense is too good for me to anticipate a blowout, and they’ve won the last two matchups in this series. I might take the Packers to win because I have a traumatic history with them, but this line is too big. Lions +4.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
