2022 NFL Picks Divisional Weekend: Consistency Counts
It would have been nice to lock in that Cincinnati line at -6.5 instead of -7, but we’ll count ourselves lucky to get a push with the way the Bengals won that game. Now we’re in the round that should provide us with the best football of the season, and we have two lines over a touchdown and none under a field goal. Let’s see who we should actually expect to pull off an upset and make it to Conference Championship weekend.
All DVOA statistics and ranks are from Football Outsiders, my personal favorite site for advanced football analytics and commentary
Game logs for historical matchups are pulled from Pro Football Reference
Kansas City Chiefs -9 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars’ comeback last week was even more fun to watch while avoiding spoilers and keeping our newborn son company at 3 AM. I loved some of the aggressive calls Doug Pederson made to help gain ground in the second half, and I loved Trevor Lawrence’s body language coming off the field after his ugly interceptions in the first half. Some credit must be given to whatever supernatural entity cursed the Chargers long ago, but it really felt like more of a Jacksonville heater than a Chargers’ implosion. They deserve a lot of credit for pulling out that win and even more for turning things around from the Urban Meyer era so quickly. Unfortunately for them, there’s a reason their opponent wasn’t playing last week. Kansas City secured the top seed in the AFC with a 14-3 record, and while they didn’t log a lot of blowouts, they did spend a lot of the second half of the year looking bored. If they’re fully engaged after a week of rest and preparation, they shouldn’t have any trouble getting past 35 points against the Jaguars’ 26th-ranked defense; they’ve averaged 36.5 in four trips to the Divisional Round in the Mahomes era. Jacksonville would need to replicate their second half success all day to keep pace with the version of Kansas City I expect to see, and I think it’s just too much to ask of Trevor Lawrence in his second year. Chiefs -9
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. New York Giants
The other number one seed gets to face an opponent for the third time this season, with two wins by a combined 32 points already logged. So how different is this version of the Giants? They looked great in their win over the Vikings last week, but Minnesota came into that game with the league’s 27th-ranked defense. Philadelphia currently ranks 6th in defensive DVOA and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Their defense did a nice job against Justin Jefferson, but they still gave up 24 points to the league’s 20th-ranked offense; the Eagles are 3rd in offensive DVOA. I have no doubt Brian Daboll and his staff will have a solid plan to attack Philly’s weaknesses, but it won’t be as easy in theory or as practice as it was last week. A lot has been made of the Eagles falling off in the second half, but the Giants also fell off, going 3-5-1 after their Week 9 bye with one-score wins over the Texans and Commanders. If Jalen Hurts really has a bum shoulder and Lane Johnson’s injury alone torpedoes one of the best offensive lines in the game, I still like the Eagles to win by a field goal. If one or both of those problems is being overstated, two scores isn’t asking much for the better, deeper team with a solid coaching staff of their own. Eagles -7.5
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
We were all excited to watch this game a few weeks ago, and the NFL did the right thing in canceling the game entirely. I don’t blame Cincinnati and their fans for wondering why this game is being played in Buffalo; the NFL has already determined that a Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship will take place at a neutral site so as to not punish the Bills for the canceled game on their schedule, because if they had beaten the Bengals and won their Week 18 game they’d have the #1 seed. Well, if Cincinnati had beaten Buffalo and won their Week 18 game, they’d have the #2 seed and this game would be in Ohio. Trust me, Ohioans don’t need any extra fuel on the “overlooked” fire, and the NFL gave them a big can of it here. The big question for the Bengals coming into this game is how they’ll work around a shoddy offensive line after injuries to their left tackle, right guard, and right tackle over the past four weeks. I’m not sure it’s going to be as big a story as you’d initially expect, in part because Joe Burrow has a wealth of experience managing terrible O line play (see: all of last season) and because Buffalo doesn’t have anyone to really take advantage of the problem with Von Miller out. Buffalo doesn’t really get after the quarterback, but they’ve managed the 4th-ranked defense by DVOA anyway. That’s the ranking that stand out to me here; their defense doesn’t feel as dominant as the numbers would suggest, especially compared to Cincinnati’s Wild Card opponent, the 7th-ranked Ravens. Turnovers from Josh Allen have played a big part, but Buffalo has given up 31 points to the Skylar Thompson Dolphins, 23 points to the Patriots, and 23 points to the Browns since Week 11. Those are all teams you should hold under 14 points if you’re boasting a top-5 defense in playoff form, and I don’t think Josh Allen is suddenly going to revert to his best self this week after turning the ball over seven times in the last four games and 22 times in 17 games overall. Cincinnati always seems to have one of the best opponent-specific defensive game plans ready to go, and while they probably can’t keep Buffalo below 20, they’ll make things difficult enough to avoid a blowout. I think Joe B and the Bengals have a good chance to win this game outright, so getting 5.5 feels like a real gift. Bengals +5.5
San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The two most emphatic winners of Wild Card Weekend face each other in the Divisional Round, and it’s a rematch of a game we saw in the Wild Card round last year. The Niners overcame an uneven first half to drop 25 unanswered points on the Seahawks and cruise to a victory while the Cowboys made Tom Brady look every bit of 45 years old and won running away despite not being able to convert extra points. San Francisco has the hottest offense in football, having scored 30 or more points in six of their seven games with Brock Purdy and won 11 straight overall. You thought Dallas winning 31-14 last week was impressive? Purdy and the Niners beat Tampa Bay 35-7 in Week 14. Dallas has also looked good on offense since Dak Prescott returned from injury, but they’ve been much less consistent, with underwhelming performances against the Commanders, Texans, and Titans since Week 14. Both teams have stud pass rushers (Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons) leading great defenses (1st and 2nd in DVOA), but the Niners again have an edge in consistency; they’ve given up more than 20 points just twice since Week 10 while the Cowboys have allowed the Packers, Texans, Jaguars, Eagles, and Commanders to break that mark in the same time. I think it’s fair to say the best version of the Cowboys can hang with the Niners, especially with a seventh-round rookie under center for San Francisco. I just don’t believe in Mike McCarthy and the Dallas staff to reach their ceiling as much as I do Kyle Shanahan and DeMeco Ryans. If we get the best version of both teams, the Niners might win by a field goal. If the Cowboys are anything less, San Francisco will punish them. 49ers -4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
