2024 NFL Picks Week 3: Play it Again, Sam (I Dare You)
Oof, we took a real beating last week. Underdogs were 8-8 straight up and 11-5 against the spread with most of the heavy favorites failing to cover. We’re still dealing with very small sample sizes, though. Is Sam Darnold experiencing a career renaissance? Or did he play one terrible defense and hit one big pass against a good defense to flip the game script? Are the Ravens a shell of their former selves, or have they had bad luck with field goals and turnover timing? And is Derek Carr finally pushing the ball downfield in his eleventh season? Let’s run through the picks and see what trends hold up in Week 3!
New York Jets -6.5 vs. New England Patriots
Aaron Rodgers has been pretty good through two starts, and the Jets are 1-1 to show for it. Unfortunately, the team’s defense hasn’t been as good as expected, and New York is both paying and treating Rodgers like a great quarterback rather than a pretty good one. The Patriots lost a tough game to the Seahawks in overtime, but they’ve been perfectly fine on both sides of the ball through two games. I’m not sure what we’ve seen to suggest the Jets are a touchdown better in either phase of the game, so let’s take the points. Patriots +6.5
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Chicago Bears
I had two big takeaways from the Bears’ Sunday Night Football game: our offensive line is terrible, and our defense is really good. The Colts are 0-2 coming into this game after an embarrassing loss to Malik Willis in Green Bay last week, but they’re still favored by nearly a field goal here. I don’t understand the enthusiasm for Anthony Richardson yet, so I’m taking the points and the Chicago defense. Bears +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos
I don’t want to take Baker Mayfield giving nearly a touchdown…but this feels like the right spot for it. Bo Nix has been terrible for the Broncos, and Bucs’ head coach Todd Bowles has a long history of tormenting rookie quarterbacks. Denver’s defense has been okay at best, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both playing like the best versions of themselves. With Tampa at home, I think they can cover even if they can’t really run the ball. Buccaneers -6.5
Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Nothing about this game will be pretty, but like last week I’m going to trust the gameplanning of Matt LaFleur against a mistake-prone quarterback and a so-so roster. Green Bay only scored 16 points against the Colts, but the Titans have only scored 17 points in back-to-back games. 17-16 is enough to cover, and that’s the kind of game I expect from these two teams. Packers +2.5
Minnesota Vikings +2 vs. Houston Texans
We’re now 0-2 betting against Sam Darnold, and while beating the Giants is easy to shrug off, outright winning against San Francisco is more notable. How do we react to last week’s game? 97 of Darnold’s 268 passing yards came on the huge touchdown to Justin Jefferson, who is set to play but is dealing with a quad injury coming into Week 3. We’re taking the Texans here, for two big reasons: first, C.J. Stroud is one of the best in the game at reading defenses, which should help him against Brian Flores’ confusing defense; second, Sam Darnold is going to have a Sam Darnold game eventually unless he’s on the Geno Smith rehabilitation plan. I could be wrong for a third week in a row, but eventually I’m going to be right. Texans -2
Cleveland Browns -6.5 vs. New York Giants
Two disparate but equally compelling thoughts here: Deshaun Watson shouldn't be favored by nearly a touchdown over anyone, and the Giants can't score points against even bad NFL defenses. The Giants lost to rookie QB Jayden Daniels last week, and while Malik Nabers offers faint glimmers of touchdown hope for a team otherwise resigned to field goals, this is one of the easier tasks Cleveland defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will face all season. I actually do feel worse about the Giants reaching 10 points than I do the Browns reaching 17 after accounting for the handful of defensive touchdown opportunities Daniel Jones is likely to provide. Browns -6.5
New Orleans Saints -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This line has moved a lot since the early line posted before Week 2. Since then, the Saints pummeled the Cowboys and the Eagles somehow choked a game away to the Falcons. I understand the sentiment behind the movement, and the level of offense we’ve seen from the Saints through two weeks usually isn’t a fluke. Teams who are this good through two weeks often finish as at least a top-10 offense, so presumably some level of that success is here to stay. The Eagles look adrift without A.J. Brown, but this whole spot feels a little funny. While Philly has struggled, they still have a very good offensive line and some solid offensive weapons. Unless their defense is just as unprepared as the Cowboys’ last week, the Eagles should be able to keep this one close and maybe get some pressure on Derek Carr late in the game. Eagles +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Last week I expressed concern about picking the Steelers as favorites, and I guess they made me eat my words by scoring 13 points in a win (and cover) over Denver. I love their defense, but at some point you also lose these coin flip games they insist on playing. Maybe Justin Herbert is the guy to make that happen. Chargers +2.5
Las Vegas Raiders -5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I liked the Raiders here before the news that Bryce Young was being benched for Andy Dalton. I'm a little more nervous now, but not enough to change my mind. My most recent memory of the 36-year old Dalton is when the Bears pretended he was their starter over a rookie Justin Fields, only for him to get injured early in the season and the Bears to look utterly unprepared. Maybe he can stay healthy longer this time around, but even then, what is he working with here? Do we have any evidence that Dave Canales is a good head coach or that the Carolina defense can stop anyone, let alone Davante Adams and Brock Bowers? It's not fun, but I'm still picking against the Panthers until either the spread is huge or they cover. Raiders -5
Seattle Seahawks -5 vs. Miami Dolphins
This line has been moving towards the Dolphins for two reasons I've heard: optimism about Skylar Thompson stemming from his playoff loss to the Bills two years ago, and concerns over the Seattle run game with a spotty offensive line and an injured Kenneth Walker III. Skylar Thompson was 18 of 45 for 220 yards in that game, and it only stayed close because of some ugly mistakes from Buffalo. Mike Macdonald should be drooling while he preps for this matchup. As for the run game, it would be nice to see more consistency from the Seattle offense, but Geno Smith is doing enough in the passing game to take advantage of what has been a weak defense and pass rush in Miami so far. They should be able to win by a touchdown with a big home field advantage and Skylar Thompson under center. Seahawks -5
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Detroit Lions
I was close to choosing the Cardinals in this one on the strength of their offense, but a few things changed my mind. As disappointing as Detroit's loss to Tampa was last week, they racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense and just couldn't come through in the red zone. The Cardinals defense looked good last week, but the Rams were down Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp most of the game. And finally, the three point line seemed like an easy opportunity for a backdoor cover…but that was as close as I could get to seeing the Cardinals win. So we'll take the Lions and the worst likely outcome of a push. Lions -3
Dallas Cowboys +1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This would be easier to say if I hadn't picked them in our survival league last week, but…the Ravens aren't going to go 0-3, right?! The way Baltimore blew last week’s game against the Raiders should make their fan base fearful that they've reverted to the pre-mike Macdonald era, where a team built around physicality and a dual-threat quarterback somehow couldn't close games out, but they're still a good team. As long as they take some lessons from the Saints’ playbook to slow down Micah Parsons, they should be able to get some offense going, and Baltimore’s defense is at least as good as what they have in New Orleans. It should be a good game, but I like Baltimore to pull it out in the end. Ravens -1
Los Angeles Rams +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I rarely like taking big favorites in divisional battles, but I think these circumstances qualify as special. The Rams are down their two best receivers, and their defense couldn't stop the run against Detroit and then couldn't stop anything against Arizona. The Niners have beat up on the Rams in recent years; 4 victories by more than a touchdown in 7 games, and San Francisco really needs to get back on track after a frustrating loss to the Vikings last week. They can cover a touchdown against THIS version of the Rams. 49ers -7
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Is this because of the injury to Isiah Pacheco? Or because Nick Sirianni gifted the Falcons their first win of 2024? Kansas City has the rest advantage in this game, they still have Patrick Mahomes and some flashes of excitement from Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, and I’m not sure Kirk Cousins trusts both of his legs. Steve Spagnuolo should be excited to expose the weaknesses in the Atlanta offense, and I haven't seen anything to suggest the Falcons’ defense is good enough to hold the Chiefs in check. Chiefs -3
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ugh. I'm taking the Jaguars again despite the myriad ways in which they disappoint us. As it relates to this line, Jacksonville tends to lose, but they do it in ways that really tease their potential to be a good team. If they're going to keep that up, they have to keep games close until they can drop the ball (figuratively and literally) at the worst possible moment. Sounds like a close loss to me. Jaguars +5.5
Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 vs. Washington Commanders
One close loss to the Chiefs and we're all back in on the Bengals and a quarterback knockoff of the real Slim Shady? We saw this story in Week 1, when Cincy was favored by 8.5 against the Patriots and lost outright. Not happening again; I'm taking the Commanders and their competent offense to cover a spread larger than a touchdown. Commanders +7.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
