2024 NFL Picks Week 4: Better Viewing, Better Picks?
Yuck. We’re already seeing a lot of injuries this season, and Thursday night’s game with Micah Parsons and Malik Nabers going out was no exception. These kinds of injuries make the whole league less fun, but they also make the games harder to predict. Is Frank Ragnow important enough to Detroit’s offensive line to swing a game or two? Should we expect Jordan Love to come back from a leg injury and go right back to the version of him we saw down the stretch last season? Is there any reason for Nick Chubb to come back and play this year? Let’s hope the injury numbers go down going forward, and that for my own sake Caleb Williams isn’t added to the list behind Chicago’s atrocious offensive line.
New York Giants +4.5 vs Dallas Cowboys
Coming into this game, Dallas had won their last six games against the Giants by an average of 21 points per game. The closest game was decided by 7 points, and this year’s version of the Giants looks worse than ever, so I felt pretty safe! It was much closer than I expected, but we’re off to a 1-0 start. Cowboys -4.5
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Falcons are the latest team to join the “almost beat the Chiefs” club, but there are some important caveats to that line of thinking. The Regular Season Chiefs (more on them later) have been beaten or almost beaten by a lot of teams since the start of last year, and Atlanta managed just 17 points in their loss at home. The Saints looked more like what we expected in their loss to the Eagles, but they’re still the better team by DVOA, point differential, and win-loss record. These teams play a lot of weird games, but I like getting points with what appears to be the better team so far this season. Saints +1.5
Houston Texans -6 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
I just can’t do it anymore. As tantalizing as Trevor Lawrence’s potential is, and as competitive as it seems they should be, I’m not picking the Jags or starting Lawrence in my fantasy league until they play a game where it looks like they practice the sport. Houston needs to bounce back in a big way from their loss to the Vikings, and I think they’ll do it here at home against a division rival they’ve mostly owned (10-2 in their last 12 meetings). Texans -6
Carolina Panthers +4.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Wow, so much disappointment to compare. The Bengals should win this game, but their defense resembled a very slow trainwreck against the Commanders on Monday night, and now they’ll be playing on a short week. Carolina wasn’t much better on defense in their win over the Raiders, but there’s something to the idea that Andy Dalton’s competence is breathing a lot of life into the Panthers’ locker room. I don’t know if they can win a second game in a row, but this line is a little large for a home team playing with a new love for the game, at least until David Tepper does something to bring the excitement down again. Panthers +4.5
Chicago Bears -2.5 vs Los Angeles Rams
Why are the Bears favored here? I was encouraged by the progress Caleb Williams showed against the Colts last week, but our team is still a disaster. Matthew Stafford is too good to let the Rams just get strangled by a good Bears’ defense all game long, and even if the Rams’ defense is underwhelming, the Bears can’t block anyone in the run or pass games. I think we should be underdogs, so getting the Rams and points is a real gift. Rams +2.5
Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota Vikings
This line suggests Jordan Love will be back, but is that enough to have the Packers favored by a full field goal against this version of the Vikings? I’m 0-3 picking against Minnesota so far, but their defense now has me fully convinced. Even if Love is back, he’ll likely be less than 100% and facing a lot of pressure. The Sam Darnold regression is still looming, but Green Bay’s defense isn’t good enough to force it this week. Vikings +3
Indianapolis Colts +2 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Nope. Not nearly enough points for the team I watched fail their way to a victory over the Bears last week. Pittsburgh has a much better offensive line and offense than Chicago and a better defense to boot. Anthony Richardson is going to be under pressure and will definitely turn the ball over at least once, so the Steelers should pick up their fourth win by at least two points even if they can’t break 20 themselves. Steelers -2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles
I’m not sure I’d say the Eagles looked good against the Saints last week, but it did move them to 2-1 for the season. The Bucs are also 2-1, but they’re much healthier at this point than Philly. The Eagles are likely without A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith this week, and I don’t believe in Jalen Hurts or Nick Sirianni to work around those kinds of shortcomings against a team that stomped them (32-9!) in the playoffs last year. Buccaneers +2.5
New York Jets -7 vs Denver Broncos
Aaron Rodgers looked pretty good in New York’s win over the Patriots last week, but playing this Denver defense is a different beast. The Broncos should be able to generate pressure and they have Patrick Surtain II to take on Garrett Wilson. I don’t believe in Bo Nix long-term, but I do believe in Sean Payton’s ability to draw up a gameplan that highlights his strengths and hides his weaknesses. This number is just too high for a Jets team that nearly lost to the Titans and beat the Pats. Broncos +7
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 vs Washington Commanders
I was excited to see what Jayden Daniels did on Monday night, but now he and the Commanders will be traveling across the country on a short week to take on a surprisingly spunky Cardinals team. Kyler Murray has looked good through three weeks, and Marvin Harrison, Jr. is getting better every week. The Commanders survived one game without making a single stop on defense, but obviously that’s not a sustainable formula. I think Arizona can do just enough to win by a touchdown at home. Cardinals -3.5
San Francisco 49ers -10.5 vs New England Patriots
Picking anyone to cover big spreads this season has hurt, but the Niners were my favorite team to do that last year; they have twelve wins since the start of last season by more than one score. It sounds like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle might both be back for this one, and this offense has to get back on track eventually, right? As for the Patriots, I just don’t trust them to do anything if they fall behind by double digits like we saw in the Jets game. Let’s count on the 49ers to re-introduce themselves as contenders this week. 49ers -10.5
Las Vegas Raiders -1 vs Cleveland Browns
I don’t want to pick or watch this game. Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett are both dinged up, and we have to pick between the inept Cleveland offense and some combination of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell against Cleveland’s defense. I’m just going to rely on the Browns’ defense being worse on the road and the general idea that betting against Deshaun Watson is more enjoyable than betting on him. Raiders -1
Los Angeles Chargers +7 vs Kansas City Chiefs
It sounds like Justin Herbert might still be out, but I don’t know if it’s enough to move me off this big underdog line. As I hinted at above, the Chiefs have just four regular season wins by more than one score since the start of last season, and they really seem to be enjoying the approach of letting Patrick Mahomes try stuff out until they need one late score or first down to secure the victory. I think Harbaugh is as excited as anyone could be to try running the ball all game long and keeping things close against a division rival. Chargers +7
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 vs Buffalo Bills
I expected this line to be right around even, so are people just more impressed with the Ravens’ win over a mediocre Cowboys team than I thought? Josh Allen looks like the best player in football through three games, and this Ravens’ defense is very beatable. Maybe Baltimore can commit to the run game and take advantage of some of Buffalo’s injuries on the defensive side, but I don’t see a world where Josh Allen is held in check all game and can’t keep things close down to the wire. Bills +2.5
Miami Dolphins -1 vs Tennessee Titans
I was really close to taking the Titans here with the idea that betting against Skylar Thompson is an experience everyone should get to enjoy. But suddenly, it hit me: betting against Will Levis has been even more fun and lucrative through three games this season. Mike McDaniel has had a long week to prepare a gameplan around the explosive weapons his offense still has, and I’m not convinced the Titans have an advantage at quarterback or head coach. Let’s take the home team only giving a point. Dolphins -1
Detroit Lions -4 vs Seattle Seahawks
I like the Lions a lot this season, and while I’m a little frustrated at their inability to turn yards into points, I think everything will click before the playoffs arrive. There are a few things giving me pause in this matchup, though. First, Seahawks’ head coach Mike Macdonald was behind the Baltimore defense that gave Jared Goff and the Lions fits last season. Even without the same personnel, he can probably dial up some confusion. Second, the Seahawks’ passing game is good enough to put up points even if Detroit plays well defensively. I don’t think they’ll be reaching the thirties or anything like that, but I do think they can get to 20. Unless the Lions’ offense crystallizes this week despite the injury to Frank Ragnow, I think we’re looking at a field goal game. Seahawks +4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
