2024 NFL Picks Week 2: And It Feels Like Home
Last Week: 10-4-2
This Week:
Wow, what a start to the season! The Chiefs did just enough to pull out a win against a top team, the Bears won Caleb Williams’ debut without scoring an offensive touchdown, and Aaron Rodgers is getting all kinds of love for a very passable performance. We had a couple surprises (the Patriots and Sam Darnold both winning) and some more classic outcomes (the Steelers winning with field goals, Washington looking lost), but none of that matters heading into Week 2. We have to figure out which signals were real and which were just noise to make our picks, so let’s get to it!
Miami Dolphins -2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Coming into this game I felt like the Mike McDaniel Dolphins had played the Bills tough the past couple of seasons and that this year’s Bills had more question marks in their defense than usual. Buffalo had their hands full against Kyler Murray last week, and I thought this would be a chance for McDaniel and Tua to light up the scoreboard against a team with a lot of new pieces. Instead, Miami dug themselves a hole early and couldn’t climb out of it, and late in the game Tua had another concussion. Not fun for anyone to watch, and definitely a sign that these teams are headed in opposite directions. Dolphins -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson and the Browns looked exactly as bad as I expected them to last week, and that was before the latest allegations against Watson became public. Cleveland’s defense is still good, but there’s only so much you can do without a functioning offense. The Jaguars didn’t look much better; they were shut out in the second half after leading 17-7, and terribly-timed turnovers led to yet another frustrating loss in the Trevor Lawrence era. I don’t know what to do with this one, but I’ve been sucked in by the Jags too many times in the Doug Pederson-Lawrence era to take them with a spread this big. Browns +4
Green Bay Packers +3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
This line makes perfect sense on the surface. The Colts looked pretty good in a close loss to the Texans last week and Jordan Love’s injury leaves the Packers with Malik Willis under center. If I had a little more confidence in Anthony Richardson, I’d be taking the Colts here. If I felt like the Colts’ defense, in both scheme and personnel, stacked up to what I’ve seen from Matt LaFleur, I’d love Indy. None of that is really there for me, though. Instead I see a Green Bay team that can’t afford to slip to 0-2 with a very good offensive coach facing a Gus Bradley defense and getting more than a field goal at home against a quarterback with 103 career pass attempts. Packers +3.5
Dallas Cowboys -6 vs. New Orleans Saints
I liked what I saw from the Cowboys last week, especially on the defensive side. I think Mike Zimmer is a better defensive coordinator than Dan Quinn, so Dallas should be able to mix things up and make defensive adjustments a bit more effectively than they did last season. They still have a weaker overall roster than they had last year, though, and this is a big spread to cover against a healthy and competent Saints team. I’m not blown away by New Orleans crushing Carolina, but Derek Carr is a decent quarterback and they can still play defense at a high level. If Dallas gets out to a lead early and turns Micah Parsons loose, this pick will look bad, but a low-scoring affair seems more likely to me. Saints +6
Washington Commanders -1.5 vs. New York Giants
Daniel Jones has had some success against the Commanders in the past, but this is a new version of the Washington team with different coaches in place. Both teams are bad and neither flashed in Week 1, so this should be a toss-up. Instead, the line suggests the Giants are a point better on a neutral field…and I don’t get it. One team got worked over by a team who won a playoff game last year and the other was blown out of the water by Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold! I trust Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin to make more plays than whatever the Giants are rolling out these days, so here we go. Commanders -1.5
Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. New York Jets
Obviously I had a great time listening to the Jets-Niners game on the radio as my family and I road tripped home last week. I’ve also enjoyed laughing at all of the positive reviews of Rodgers’ performance in the days since, raving about him throwing for less than 200 yards and balancing a touchdown against an interception. But this line doesn’t feel right. Tennessee blew a game they had sewn up because Will Levis is their quarterback., and he’s still the quarterback here. I’m not scared of anything in the Titans’ run game, so they probably won’t be able to attack the same way Kyle Shanahan did last week. I’m still happy to be sitting on the Jets under 9.5 wins this year, but this is one they shouldn’t have too much trouble with. Jets -3.5
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
We’re starting to see the general perception of the Raiders catch up to reality after their ugly loss to the Chargers last week, but this line suggests it isn’t all the way there yet. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens looked good against the Chiefs last week, but they lost because the Chiefs have definitely the best quarterback and maybe the best team in the league. Baltimore’s defense should easily clamp down on whatever the Raiders are trying to do, and there’s no way the Ravens’ offense will let up when they can’t afford to start the season 0-2. I’m expecting a classic September Baltimore blowout. Ravens -9.5
Carolina Panthers +5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I’m not racing to be the first person to correctly guess when Carolina will cover a spread. They showed a few signs of life last year, but their defense is greatly depleted since then and their offense is still a mess. Sure, they could do enough this week to hang with a good-but-not-scary Chargers team. But I’m more comfortable betting on general competence and a really good quarterback to cover a touchdown against the Panthers, who are now 2-16 in their last 18 games with a point differential of -12.1 points per game. Chargers -5
New England Patriots +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Patriots pulled off the big upset of Week 1 with their 16-10 win over the Bengals, but it’s hard to know at this point whether that result means New England is much better than we thought or that Cincinnati is much worse. The Seahawks looked pretty good in the second half of their win over the Broncos, but rough offensive line play led to them taking two and nearly three safeties in the game. I might regret this, but I feel like Seattle has a real talent advantage and a head coach who should have no problem shutting down the Pats’ offense. Seahawks -3.5
Minnesota Vikings +5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Vikings are 1-0 in the Sam Darnold era and yes, I picked against them. I’m doing it again here, even though the Vikings beat the Niners last year in a very strange game. San Francisco just has too many advantages. You have Justin Jefferson in Minnesota, but the Niners have a better receiver room top-to-bottom, their defense is healthy, and the combination of Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy is considerably better than Kevin O’Connell and, crucially, Sam Darnold. This should be a touchdown spread. 49ers -5
Detroit Lions -6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year these teams played a very entertaining playoff game in the Divisional round, and the Lions ended up winning 31-23. This line is two points lower than that outcome…why? The Lions made some solid personnel additions since last season, and while I like what we saw from the Bucs last week, they might have been playing against the worst defense in the NFL. Detroit can attack Todd Bowles’ defense through the air and on the ground, and I’m not sure Tampa Bay has the kind of offensive versatility they’d need to keep up. Let’s take advantage of the time we have to pick against Baker Mayfield until his Mr. Hyde shows up again. Lions -6
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua’s injury is a real bummer because I was very excited to see what he could do alongside a revitalized Cooper Kupp. Based on what we saw against Detroit, Kupp will still be making plenty of plays and the Rams will still be able to run the ball well enough to keep defenses honest. Arizona looked pretty good on offense last week, but their defense was just as bad as we expected coming into the season. It’s tough picking against a home underdog in a divisional matchup, but I have faith in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay. Rams -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs -6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The year was 2023. The Bengals had beaten the Chiefs three times in a row, including a crazy comeback in the 2021-22 AFC Championship game. One of the Cincinnati DBs said into the sideline camera, “see y’all in Burrowhead”, suggesting Joe Burrow owned Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Chiefs went on to beat the Bengals in that AFC Championship game and again last year. It’s probably not a good idea to give Mahomes extra motivation, and I guarantee Kansas City hasn’t forgotten those comments. I’m expecting a rout, where we see Andy Reid pour on the points even after taking an early lead against a very suspect Bengals’ defense, and we didn’t see anything last week to suggest Cincy can keep up in a shootout. Chiefs -6
Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Watching the Steelers’ defense dominate Kirk Cousins last week was pretty amusing as someone who doubted the Falcons, but picking Pittsburgh as underdogs is way more fun than taking them as favorites. What am I supposed to do with this line? The Steelers are favored by almost a field goal on the road? They only won by 8 points last week and their opponent barely had a defense. Denver’s defense could easily hold them to 10 or fewer points, but the Broncos’ offense is considerably less scary than what the Falcons (theoretically) have. I don’t know what to do here, so I’m going to take the home team getting points. Broncos +2.5
Houston Texans -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
If you thought I or any other Bears fan was going to be disappointed by a win with zero offensive touchdowns, you haven’t been paying attention. I’m not panicking about Caleb Williams because it’s way too early in his career to be making any judgments. His stat line was ugly, but unlike his fellow rookies (and some non-rookies) around the league, he didn’t do anything to cost his team the game despite some bad offensive line play. That’s something! Unfortunately, Houston has a very good defensive line and their quarterback probably isn’t going to attempt an underhanded throw late in the game, gifting you a pick-six. I’m still looking forward to a fun season, but unless Chicago’s defense is a whole level or two above where I think they are, C.J. Stroud is going to win by a touchdown at home. Texans -6.
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Eagles were a real mixed bag last week, but I think the Falcons would love a “mixed bag” review if they could get it. Philadelphia’s offense should move the ball at will, at home, on Monday Night Football against a weak Atlanta defense, and I’m still waiting to see the Falcons do something with these offensive weapons before I buy into them. Maybe I’m wrong and Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts will all score touchdowns in the same game, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. Eagles -6.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
