2020 NFL Picks Week 2: Let's Do That 16 More Times!
Last Week: 8-7-1
This Week:
It may not have been pretty, but much like Mitchell Trubisky we did just enough to come away with a win last week. Now I’ve spent five days sorting through stats to figure out what’s real and what’s the Raiders, and the result is thirteen road teams in sixteen games. Maybe a theme of Road Warrior is promising with so many signs of the apocalypse these days?
Cleveland Browns -6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland is 3-3 against Cincinnati going back to the 2017 season and 10-32-1 against everyone else. The Browns didn’t show much promise against the Ravens last week, but at least we’re pretty confident Baltimore will be among the top teams in the league. The Bengals looked equally hapless against the Los Angeles Chargers, who we’re pretty confident will be a team in the league at year-end. I did like some of what Joe Burrow showed in his debut, leading his team down the field for what should have been a game-tying field goal in the final seconds. So what feels shakier? Cleveland covering more than a field goal, or Joe Burrow scoring more than 20 points in his second career game? Yeah, it’s the Cleveland part. Bengals +6
Chicago Bears -5.5 vs. New York Giants
I was fully expecting my Bears to disappoint me last week, but they took it to a whole new level. Three quarters of hopeless offense gave way to a Trubisky explosion, simultaneously blowing my pick and leading some gullible sports folks out there to wonder if Trubisky still has some untouched potential. He does not, and I’m offended by his play on many different levels. The correct takeaway from last week’s game is that the Lions will always outdo your imagination in finding new ways to lose. Of course, the Giants have been losing in normal ways for many years, outdoing even Cleveland with a three-season record of 12-36. So we’re stuck with a 5.5 point line in a rematch of a game Chicago won by 5 points last year, after missing an extra point. I think Chicago can replicate Pittsburgh’s success in slowing down Saquon Barkley, and I don’t think Daniel Jones will make them pay in the passing game. Trubisky still isn’t good, but the Bears’ offense is healthy enough to pass 20 points against the Giants. Bears -5.5
Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Two teams with somewhat high expectations made terribly disappoint debuts, but one lost to a conference finalist and the other lost to the Jaguars. The Indianapolis offense moved the ball consistently, but turnovers and a very lax defense cost them in the end. I think those problems will only be magnified against a team with a competent offense and defense, so I was surprised to see the Colts favored when this line came out. There’s a chance a good Philip Rivers game gives Indianapolis the juice they need to take advantage of Minnesota’s inexperienced secondary, but they don’t have the kind of dominant defense needed to put the clamps on Kirk Cousins. Even if the Colts win, it won’t be by more than a field goal. Vikings +3
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jokes about the new coach of the Dallas Cowboys being Jason Garrett in a Mike McCarthy mask are entirely justified after watching the abysmal play-calling in their loss to the Rams last week. You won’t find many bigger proponents of fourth down conversion attempts than me, but turning a 3rd and 8 into a 4th and 3 with a draw play and then throwing a pass short of the sticks instead of kicking a game-tying field goal is a tough look. Should they have gone for it on fourth down? Probably, yes. Is throwing short of the sticks a good way to convert? Not really, and Dallas looks primed for another underwhelming campaign. Atlanta became the first victims of what I hope is an entire season of Letting Russ Cook, and with the state of their defense I can’t say it’s surprising. The Falcons’ offense is still dangerous, though, and I didn’t see much from the Cowboys’ defense to suggest they’re ready to blow anyone out. Let’s take the points! Falcons +6.5
Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Did something about Detroit’s collapse make us think they’re a better team than Minnesota? The Packers lit up the Vikings, and the Lions had one of the worst defenses in the league last year. I’m pretty confident in a Matthew Stafford bounce-back season, but nothing I’ve seen from the Lions’ coaching staff makes me think they’re ready to compete against quality teams. The Packers, much to my dismay, are a quality team once again. I don’t think they’ll have any trouble covering a full touchdown. Packers -5.5
Miami Dolphins +4.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Look, picking the Jets to cover a reasonable spread against Buffalo may not have been a great call on my part. But I’m not wrong about Josh Allen. The guy sailed two balls into the third row with receivers wide open in the end zone, but with Adam Gase on the opposite sideline, little details like accuracy aren’t important. This week, the Bills face a slightly tougher test in the Dolphins. Miami is coming off a big loss to the Patriots, but they aren’t making transformational moves to help them compete against top defenses just yet. I think Buffalo will hold Ryan Fitzpatrick under 14 points, and if he’s generous, their defense might be able to cover the spread on their own. Bills -4.5
New York Jets +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners lost a very close game against the Cardinals last week, but the Jets make for a much softer opponent. Sam Darnold can’t escape pressure the same way Kyler Murray can, and without Jamal Adams the Jets’ defense should be hoping for league-average. With the Niners needing a win to get back on track and the Jets turning lead ball-carrier duties over to the Time Lord Frank Gore, this one should be over early. 49ers -7
Tennessee Titans -11 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I got ahead and found this line before the Titans snuck past the Broncos on Monday night, and I have to imagine the line has gone down since then. I feel like double-digit spreads are usually reserved for the top 2 or 3 teams in the league playing against those in the tanking race, but Jacksonville has Gardner Minshew! A blowout is absolutely possible; Tennessee can probably run the ball at will, and they probably won’t let Minshew connect on 95% of his passes. But I think an easy win and a backdoor cover or a close, low-scoring game are both more likely. It’s too many points to pass up. Jaguars +11
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Everything fell apart very quickly for the Eagles last week, with a stacked Washington defensive line teeing off on Carson Wentz through an injury-ravaged offensive line. It’s not what you want, but it might not be as embarrassing as it seems at first glance. Ron Rivera is a proven coach, and the amount of talent on Washington’s defense is impressive. Unfortunately, this week brings Aaron Donald, who can be as dangerous as a stacked line all by himself. We haven’t seen an impressive Eagles’ defense in quite some time, so 20+ points from Sean McVay’s creativity and a few drive-ending plays from Donald should get us a cover from the underdog. Rams +3
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. Denver Broncos
Both of these teams played to my expectations last week, but I only had high expectations for one of them. The Steelers should improve on offense as long as Roethlisberger stays healthy, and their defense doesn’t seem to have skipped a beat since last season. The Broncos looked like a team missing their best defensive player and breaking in a second-year quarterback in Drew Lock. I actually thought he made some nice throws, but he’s going to have a much harder go of it against Pittsburgh than he did against Tennessee. I think Denver might put together a nice run this season, but it won’t start against a team of Pittsburgh’s caliber. Steelers -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I went back and forth on this one, with trouble accounting for opponent adjustments. Sure, Tom Brady looked a little old against New Orleans, but the Saints might have the best top-to-bottom roster in the NFL. It was good to see Teddy Bridgewater put up 30+ points in his debut with Carolina, but the Raiders don’t pose much of a challenge on defense. I think this game will feature a lot of scoring, with Brady finding some type of a groove against a flimsy Panthers’ pass defense and Bridgewater continuing to impress against a Tampa defense much better against the run. I like the over, and I like getting more than a touchdown. Panthers +8.5
Arizona Cardinals -6.5 vs. Washington Football Team
See above on indecision when looking at this line. Sure, Washington’s win was a surprise, but how much of a discount should be applied for an offensive line down three starters from last year? The Cardinals’ win came against the defending NFC Champions, but it easily could have swung the other way and Arizona’s regular offensive line isn’t nearly as good as Philadelphia’s. Kyler is going to be on the run most of the day, and I actually have a lot of faith in Kliff Kingsbury to design a gameplan around keeping his second-year starter alive. I’m not sure if the Cardinals are ready for the “stomping inferior teams” echelon just yet. Football Team +6.5
Houston Texans +6.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This is where I would have expected a double-digit line. Let’s take a look at Week 1 performances. The Texans got blown out by the Chiefs and barely managed to lose by only two touchdowns. Baltimore picked up where it left off last regular season, obliterating the Browns and putting the game out of reach in the first half. Okay, how about matchups? Last year, a Texans team with Deandre Hopkins lost to the Ravens by 34 points. So why was this line less than a touchdown? Maybe Vegas knows something I don’t, or maybe we’re all just hoping Deshaun Watson is magical enough to account for all of Bill O’Brien’s mistakes. Unfortunately, I don’t think he is. Ravens -6.5
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This line was also surprisingly low, considering the performances of each team last week. Patrick Mahomes can still score seemingly at will, and while I like the floor Tyrod Taylor provides the Chargers, the ceiling is probably 21 points. Are the Chiefs going to be held under 30? You might as well bet on the Chargers to stay healthy all season. Chiefs -7.5
Seattle Seahawks -4 vs. New England Patriots
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were rarely underdogs, and I have to imagine Seattle’s home field advantage will be lessened be the absence of fans. Now the Patriots are getting more than a field goal after what seemed to be a strong debut from Cam Newton. I think the Seahawks are a truly dangerous team, but you should never underestimate the Seahawks’ ability to make any and all games close. I think Seattle will win this game if they continue to let Russell Wilson throw the ball all game long, but I’m not ready to count on the Patriots to lose by a touchdown. Patriots +4
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Here we are, Drew Brees leading a stacked New Orleans team into Las Vegas for the first game in the Raiders’ new stadium. The Raiders snuck past the Panthers last week while the Saints were busy pulling away from the Buccaneers, and the line here is…less than a touchdown? Did Derek Carr find a time machine to go back to his 2016 season? Even without Michael Thomas, Brees should easily carve up the Vegas defense with Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook. Nothing is going to be easy for the Raiders’ offense, and easy is the only thing they’ve done well over the past few seasons. There’s no way this one is close. Saints -5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
