2020 NFL Picks Week 1: Wait, When is Kickoff?!
Last Season: 130-134-3
This Week:
Last season ended with a painful stumble, as a nearly .500 regular season gave way to a disappointing 4-6-1 postseason capped by the 49ers blowing a lead and a cover in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. I don’t think I was wrong saying the Niners were a better all-around team despite getting points, but I was wrong thinking it mattered to Patrick Mahomes. Yes, career longevity is a necessary component of any G.O.A.T. argument, but I’ve never seen a quarterback as talented as the guy Kansas City picked eight spots after my beloved Bears took Mitchell Trubisky. He really is that good. Which leads nicely into our first pick of the 2020 season, the first in which we here at Questionably Qualified will finish above .500!
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs. Houston Texans
These teams met twice last year. In the first, the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-3 first quarter lead before giving up a fourth quarter touchdown to lose 31-24. In the second, Houston opened the game with 24 unanswered points but wound up losing 51-31. I don’t fully understand how that happens, but Head Coach/GM Bill O’Brien going up against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid probably has something to do with it. Since then, the Texans have gotten healthier but also traded away one of the best receivers in the league for an extra running back, and the Chiefs added a running back in the first round. Neither is a great move, but at least one only cost draft capital. Deshaun Watson will continue to work magic with Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks as his top two targets, but he needs more help than he has this season to keep up with Mahomes. Chiefs -9.5
New England Patriots -6 vs. Miami Dolphins
Was the Patriots’ unparalleled run since Tom Brady filled in for an injured Drew Bledsoe in 2001 due more to Bill Belichick or Tom Brady? It’s impossible to get a true answer at this point; if a 43-year old Brady struggles in Tampa Bay this year, it doesn’t mean much to the greater evaluation. Belichick managed an 11-5 record with Matt Cassel in 2008 and a 3-1 record with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett when Brady was suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season. Now he gets Cam Newton, who is twelve years younger than Brady and more injured than ineffective. The Dolphins have a bright future with a seemingly competent head coach in Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa in the building, but it’s going to be a while until they’re formidable. Add in a little revenge factor from Miami’s shocking Week 17 upset that took away New England’s bye week last season, and you have the makings of a bloodbath. Patriots -6
Baltimore Ravens -8 vs. Cleveland Browns
I’m bullish on the Browns and bearish on the Ravens this year, because both teams should face some regression. The Browns replaced last year’s first-time head coach Freddie Kitchens with first-time head coach Kevin Stefanski. I thought Stefanski was a competent-if-unspectacular Offensive Coordinator in Minnesota last year, but almost anyone is an upgrade over Kitchens. With some better injury and suspension luck for their stars (Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett, in particular), Cleveland is poised to justify a small amount of the hype they received leading up to last season. Baltimore looked like a juggernaut last season before running into Nega-Ninja-as-Ryan-Tannehill in the playoffs and returns most of their talent on both sides of the ball. It felt like everything broke right over the course of the year for the Ravens, though, and I’d expect Lamar Jackson to have to demonstrate some more come-from-behind chops this year. Despite all that, the Ravens are a deeper, more talented team even with the release of Earl Thomas and the retirement of Marshal Yanda. Stefanski and Baker Mayfield are going to have a rough introduction to the 2020 season. Ravens -8
Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs. New York Jets
The front office and coaching staff in Buffalo deserves a lot of credit. They’ve made generally smart moves in the draft and free agency, engineering a quick turnaround by NFL standards. Unfortunately, a key component of their rebuilding strategy involves Josh Allen as an NFL quarterback. This will be his third season in the league, and the Bills have set him up for success by adding Stefon Diggs to the receiving corps and retaining a solid offensive line. Allen just isn’t good enough to take advantage of it. He misses too many throws, he makes poor decisions in important moments, and eventually his teammates are going to lose faith in him. The Jets are much sloppier and employ a coach who seems to enjoy antagonizing his players publicly, but they were surprisingly good on defense last year and might have the best quarterback in this game. They split their meetings last year, and I’m expecting a low-scoring affair here. Jets +6.5
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Jon Gruden and the now-Las Vegas Raiders went 7-9 last season and are now opening 2020 as road favorites. It wouldn’t seem as crazy if Carolina was running Kyle Allen back out there, but Teddy Bridgewater should represent a significant upgrade at QB. It’s not impossible for the Raiders to be good this year, but they still have a lot of holes and a quarterback who doesn’t like to throw the ball downfield. I would be tempted to take the Panthers if they were giving points, so this one feels like a layup. Panthers +2.5
Atlanta Falcons +1 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Another year, another chance for the Seattle coaching staff to unleash Russell Wilson and experiment with the idea of throwing the ball on second, or even first down. I don’t think we’re going to be that lucky, but Atlanta is getting more credit than they deserve here. Seattle went 11-5 last year with losses to the 49ers, Saints, Ravens, Rams, and Cardinals. Four of those teams had winning records, with the first three combining for 40 wins. Atlanta went 6-2 in their last eight games to finish 7-9 but might have cursed themselves with another year of mediocre coaching and minimal roster change in the process. Atlanta seems capable of shocking good teams every year, but they aren’t reliable enough to count on against real playoff contenders. Seahawks -1
Detroit Lions -3 vs. Chicago Bears
This one was a bit tough, because the Bears have been better over the past couple of years and it never feels good to count on Matt Patricia. Chicago has won the last four meetings between these teams, but the 2018 Bears were an Actually Good Team and the 2019 Bears faced Jeff Driskel and David Blough under center for the Lions; they won those games by a combined 11 points. Matthew Stafford is back in the starting lineup, which gives the Lions a huge edge at QB this time around, and I have no reason to believe Chicago’s offense improved in the offseason. Detroit has a scary set of offensive weapons with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, and they should be able to get ahead and stay ahead for a Week 1 win. Lions -3
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Cutting Leonard Fournette is more of an embarrassing move for the Jaguars’ front office than a painful one on the field, but the Jaguars jettisoned a LOT of talent in the offseason. Calais Campbell is now in Baltimore, Yannick Ngakoue is in Minnesota, and Nick Foles is in Chicago. That last one might not be damaging, but it’s one less option under center than they had last year. The Colts added Philip Rivers to a strong core, and still have what I think is the best coaching staff in the division. With Rivers behind a solid offensive line for a change, I think he’ll manage one more effective season. For those keeping score, that gives Indianapolis the edge at quarterback, head coach, and roster talent. Colts -7.5
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I’m not convinced the Vikings will desperately miss Stefon Diggs or Kevin Stefanski this year, but their departures probably won’t help their offense. Minnesota averaged 27.2 points per non-Packers game last season but combined for just 26 points in their two games against Green Bay. The Packers’ defense struggles against the best offenses (see: two matchups with San Francisco last year) but Minnesota isn’t on that list. Throw in a grumpy Aaron Rodgers and some free points, and I’m sadly picking Green Bay to start the season 1-0. Packers +2.5
Washington Football Team +6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia (and the rest of the NFL) hasn’t had any trouble with Washington since Carson Wentz came into the league, and I can’t find a reason to expect better from them in Week 1. Hiring Ron Rivera was a smart move, though I’m sure the Washington front office won’t have the patience to see a real rebuild through; even if they do, expecting any real offense from Dwayne Haskins in his first game under a new coach is pretty optimistic. The Eagles are healthy coming into the season, which they couldn’t say for most of 2019. With Desean Jackson available to take the top off opposing defenses, their offense might flash some explosiveness we haven’t seen in some time. Eagles -6
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The history of rookie quarterbacks in their first starts is not inspiring, and most of them had the benefit of a normal offseason to get up to speed. Joe Burrow has neither, and even without Derwin James, the Chargers have a talented roster. Losing Philip Rivers could be painful, but moving to Tyrod Taylor might be an improvement over Rivers’ performance last season. Even if Burrow plays well, the Bengals had a lot of issues last season beyond their quarterback; you don’t wind up with the number one overall pick just because your QB play is disappointing. Chargers -3
San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I don’t know if I’ll ever be truly confident in Jimmy G, but the Niners have done everything they can to minimize his possible negative impact in terms of roster depth and game planning. They were worthy Super Bowl contenders last year and should be formidable again in 2020. The Cardinals appear to be much more high-variance, with expected improvement from Kyler Murray and the offseason additions of Deandre Hopkins and Isaiah Simmons. They played San Francisco tough last year, losing two games by just 13 points combined. I don’t think they’re good enough to topple San Francisco just yet, but they’re good enough to make them sweat. Cardinals +7
New Orleans Saints -3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans continues to be all in as long as Drew Brees staves off Father Time, but they might be going into this game without Alvin Kamara. I like a lot of the moves the Saints made this offseason, but they’ve disappointed me in season openers before. Last season it was a 2-point victory over Houston despite three interceptions from Deshaun Watson; in 2018 they lost 48-40 to Tampa Bay; 2017 started with a 10-point loss to the Vikings; 2016 saw them lose a nailbiter to the Oakland Raiders. With Tampa Bay’s weapons and even competent play from Tom Brady, the Bucs will be hanging close in this one. Buccaneers +3.5
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Rams really went all in to win a Super Bowl during Jared Goff’s rookie contract, and it very nearly worked. The bills are now coming due, and their defensive departures resemble those we’re seeing in Jacksonville. Sean McVay can still manufacture points, but Wade Phillips is no longer the defensive coordinator; Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are both superstars, but I think you’ll need more than that to slow down teams like Dallas. I’m lukewarm about Mike McCarthy, but he’s definitely an improvement over Jason Garrett, and the Cowboys added CeeDee Lamb in the draft. This game will be a great opportunity to make a statement. Cowboys -2.5
New York Giants +4.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Last year, Pittsburgh went 8-8 behind the 3rd-ranked defense in the NFL. They’ll be replacing 14 starts from Devlin Hodges and Mason Rudolph with a presumably healthy Ben Roethlisberger this year, and the Giants are pretty much still the Giants. If Daniel Jones ascends from intriguing rookie to Pro Bowl talent this year, they might be able to hang with a team like Pittsburgh. He won’t be making such a big leap, and the Giants are going to be bad again. Steelers -4.5
Denver Broncos +1.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
There’s a lot of regression coming for the Titans we saw over the back half of last season, starting with Ryan Tannehill’s play. Escaping the oversight of Adam Gase will do wonders for a lot of people, but Tannehill is not the top-5 quarterback he played like down the stretch. Derrick Henry is fun to watch in the same way it’s cool to see construction equipment tear down buildings, but this isn’t the 1970s. Tennessee is going to need to show some real development from players and coaches if they want to approach last year’s success, but at least they had success last year. The Broncos went 7-9 with one impressive win, a 38-24 beating of AFC South champion Houston. Much like the Giants above, they’ll need a big step from Drew Lock to compete in the AFC West, and I’m not confident they’re going to get it. Titans -1.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
