2020 NFL Picks Week 3: Of Course the Bears are 2-0
“No streak for you!” said the NFL last weekend, with a 1-4 record in the last five games dropping us to 7-9 in Week 2. But as usual, the best we can do is learn and move on. Now we know not to expect explosive offensive performances from Ben Roethlisberger or Drew Brees, and we know not to trust the Bears to cover a spread of any significance because Trubisky is capable of at most one competent quarter per game. Seriously, they were up 17-0 when Saquon Barkley left the game, and they nearly lost outright. Enough of the Bears – on to Week 3!
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
A real Thursday Night Football special here with the two worst Florida teams represented. Jacksonville is 1-1 with a shocking(?) victory over the Colts in Week 1, while Miami is 0-2 with losses against the Patriots and Bills. I still have no idea what to make of the Colts, but I’m pretty confident New England and Buffalo are both better than anyone the Jags have played yet. I love me some Minshew Mania, but there’s no way he and Jacksonville are ready to win a game by more than one score. Dolphins +3
Atlanta Falcons - 3 vs. Chicago Bears
A classic “very stoppable force meets very movable object” situation here. If the Bears’ offense is going to look good against anyone this year, it’s probably the Lions. But if they’re going to look good against TWO teams this year, the Falcons are next up. Atlanta was most recently seen blowing a seemingly insurmountable lead to the Cowboys, capped off by the Hands Team version of the Colts’ Griff Whalen play from 2015. Chicago has a dissatisfied Allen Robinson leading their receiving corps and the most overpaid TE group in the league, but not much else. So how good will the Falcons’ offense look against Chicago’s better half? They averaged only 20.7 points per game against top-10 defenses last year, and the Bears still meet that criteria. If they only get to 21, Mitchy Biscuits can cover. Bears +3
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
If Josh Allen was going to throw four TD passes last week, the Buffalo defense could have had the decency to cover less than a touchdown against the Dolphins. Now the Bills will face their first real test of the year, against a Rams team with the right star playmakers on defense to take advantage of Josh Allen’s mistakes. Sean McVay and Jared Goff should be able to capture some of Fitzmagic’s energy and top 25 points, and Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey alone are a big upgrade over the Dolphins’ defense. Rams +2.5
Cleveland Browns -7 vs. Washington Football Team
We all spent a lot of time diagnosing Cleveland’s disappointing 2019 season, and much of the blame fell on Freddie Kitchens and shoddy offensive line play. This year, the Browns were obliterated by the Ravens and took care of business against the toothless Bengals. Washington should let us know if Cleveland’s offensive line woes are enough to do them in again this year. The Football Team’s offense has looked rough but not entirely incompetent, and we saw the Bengals put up 30 points on the Browns already. A full touchdown is too much here. Football Team +7
Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
What happened to the Vikings? This team knocked off the Saints last year, and they’ve been blown out two weeks in a row. Tennessee is 2-0, but they’ve beaten the Broncos and Jaguars by a combined five points. I THINK Minnesota is still better than either of those teams, so this looks like a great opportunity to pick a home underdog. Let’s see how I’m wrong on Sunday! Vikings +2.5
New England Patriots -6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Watching the Patriots-Seahawks game last Sunday was a blast, and it looks like a New England offense captained by a healthy Cam Newton will be able to go toe-to-toe with the best in the league. Their defense is lacking up front, but they were also facing Russell Wilson in Horseman of the Apocalypse mode. Derek Carr has never even flashed the quality of play Russ has put forth this season, and Jon Gruden’s offense won’t get the job done against New England. I love this line, and not just because I still expect the Patriots to win the AFC East. Patriots -6
New York Giants +4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I feel a little bad for the Niners being forced to play on the same field one week after watching two of their star defensive lineman leave with ACL injuries, but they should be able to take some comfort in knowing Daniel Jones is lining up across from them. If Nick Mullens is filling in for Jimmy Garoppolo, the Niners will still have a better quarterback than the Bears have had in years, and Kyle Shanahan will still be drawing up plays that end with a combine star running all by himself on one side of the field. The Giants are terrible, they’re without Saquon Barkley, and they will be losing this game early and by a lot. 49ers -4
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
We keep expecting to see the Eagles of old, but I can’t remember their last statement win. Beating up on Cincinnati would hardly count as noteworthy, but it would at least be enough to consider them a credible threat to win a division with another competent team in it. Cincinnati has lost two close games to start the Age of Joe Burrow, but look more exciting than they have since before Andy Dalton’s injury brought A.J. McCarron into the starting lineup. They should be able to piece enough together on offense to make Philly fans squirm. Bengals +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 vs. Houston Texans
About Pittsburgh’s allowing Jeff Driskel to make things interesting last week: it’s not what you want. They feel like a team that can never quite put everything together in one game, but have enough strong points to come out ahead against most teams. Of course, Houston has the worst point differential in the league, so maybe this is the week where they finally beat someone down. Choosing a team in this game depends on your opinion of Pittsburgh. Are they a top-5 team in the league with frustrating periods of listlessness? Or are they a top-15 team with some nice flashes of talent and some players past their primes? I think it’s the latter, and I can’t wait to watch Deshaun Watson take out his frustrations on a team other than the Chiefs and Ravens. Texans +5
Indianapolis Colts -10 vs. New York Jets
The Jets may be the worst team in the NFL, but they definitely have the least inspiring coach. Weird trolling of your players does not count as motivation, and I have to imagine most of his players have already lost interest. Luckily for Jets’ fans, Adam Gase is an offensive mastermind at the level of…oh right, he’s not great at that either. So the Colts have an advantage in talent and coaching, and they’re playing at home. But the power of Philip Rivers is real, and he can only drive fans insane if the game is close in the final quarter. It will be weird, but I think the Jets can make it an interesting kind of weird. Jets +10
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Chargers looked pretty good last week in a near-upset of the Chiefs, but why are they favored by nearly a touchdown here? They have a rookie quarterback making his first scheduled start, and the Panthers have lost to two decent teams in the Raiders and Buccaneers. I just can’t see them running away with anything. Panthers +6.5
Arizona Cardinals -5.5 vs. Detroit Lions
The Cardinals have been the feel-good story of the 2020 season, stealing Deandre Hopkins and starting off 2-0. Detroit, as usual, has disappointed, jumping out to leads over two division rivals before ultimately losing both games. I’m hoping Matthew Stafford can recapture some of his 2019 pre-injury form for the sake of my friends back home and my fantasy team, but I can’t help but think of Big 12 shootouts when I envision Kliff Kingsbury’s offense going against Matt Patricia’s defense. 20 catches for Hopkins? Cardinals -5.5
Denver Broncos +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have looked okay so far, with the Saints’ Monday Night Football loss making their Week 1 matchup look even worse. Denver is now missing Von Miller and their starting quarterback, but Jeff Driskel is here to save the day! But seriously, the Broncos are going to be hard to watch for a while. If Tompa Bay can attain its final form and showcase both Evans and Godwin, they should win in a blowout. I’m just not sure they’re there yet. Broncos +6
Seattle Seahawks -5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
There’s no reason the Seahawks should struggle to win this game, with Jamal Adams making plays all over the field and Russell continuing to cook. Dallas has the right kind of offense to frustrate Seattle, though, with a strong running game and Dak Prescott going shot-for-shot with the best in the league. The only thing to fear is a return to a conservative game plan, and if it strikes at the right time this game will come down to one possession. Cowboys +5
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Saints outplayed the Raiders last week but still came away with a loss, and questions about Drew Brees’s ability to throw downfield are entirely justified. They still have enough talent to make things work, especially when Michael Thomas is active, but I’m a little worried about last year’s 8th-ranked defense being unable to get off the field against Derek Carr. If they show up with a similar effort against Aaron Rodgers, the New Orleans offense lacks the explosiveness they need to bounce back. Packers +3
Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This line feels exactly right. Baltimore is dominant, but Kansas City is still the defending Super Bowl Champion. Statistically, the Ravens should probably be favored by more than the customary three points, but Patrick Mahomes is on the other side. He can’t reach the level of Brady-Belichick in only his third year, where every underdog line feels like an earthquake, but he’s on that track. I’ll take Mahomes and the points. Chiefs +3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
