2024 NFL Picks Week 1: Back in Business
Last Season: 151-123-11
This Week:
In the famous words of Ed Helms’ character in The Hangover, “we are baaaaaaaaaaaaack!” Last year was indubitably our most successful season picking games against the spread, and while I’d like to say it’s the new normal based on scores of painful lessons learned, one year is not a sufficient sample size. We’ll have to see if we can match or improve upon last year’s results before getting that cocky, or we might turn into Nick Sirianni and hire Matt Patricia for guidance. Let’s take a look at the opening slate full of unfamiliar faces debuting in the NFL, familiar coaches in new places, and old players on new teams. What could go wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Jumping right into the new season with a rematch of last year’s AFC Title game! Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were 3.5-point underdogs in that one, and assuming a 2.5-point standard for the home line, this suggests Vegas considers the gap between the two teams to have flipped from Baltimore -1 to Kansas City -0.5. I actually think a 1.5-point shift is reasonable considering the offseason weakening of Baltimore’s offensive line and their loss of Defensive Coordinator Mike Macdonald. I love picking Patrick Mahomes, but I’m going with the Ravens and the field goal here for three reasons: first, the Chiefs are likely to slow-play Travis Kelce this season to keep him healthy for the playoffs; second, Kansas City’s regular season home-field advantage evaporated last year (5-4); and third, the Ravens should still be a very good team this season. Maybe the Chiefs come into this season hot, but I like Baltimore’s chances to cover. Ravens +3
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Gross. It’s impossible to overstate the bump the Eagles should get for no longer employing Matt Patricia, but now I’m stuck picking between a team with some obvious holes and a quarterback in Jordan Love I’m not fully sold on. I like what Philly did in adding Saquon Barkley, and while I expect them to struggle replacing Jason Kelce, their offense should remain strong as long as everyone is healthy. The Packers were hot at the end of last season, but I want to see new Defensive Coordinator Jeff Hafley succeed at the NFL level before I consider Green Bay’s defense a strength. I’ll take the Eagles to win by a field goal. Eagles -2.5
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I know Kirk Cousins is an upgrade over what the Falcons rolled out last season, but this line seems a little crazy. Atlanta is moving in the right direction with a new head coach, but I don’t feel great about aging quarterbacks coming off achilles’ tears (more on this later), Kyle Pitts, or anyone on the Falcons rushing the passer. Pittsburgh is going to be annoying as usual with the QB battle no one wanted between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, but they were 10-7 last year and have a good offensive line to go with a good defense. I’m happy to take T.J. Watt and Mike Tomlin getting three points against a team that finished 7-10 and fired their coach last season. Steelers +3
Buffalo Bills -6 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Bills should absolutely win this game because they have Josh Allen and a strong defensive head coach in Sean McDermott. I feel icky about the big spread because they had a ton of offseason turnover on their defense and they’ll be facing a healthy Kyler Murray with Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride to throw to. Buffalo shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball on Arizona’s last-ranked defense from last year, but I think Arizona can do enough to cover against a team that still needs reps together. Cardinals +6
Chicago Bears -4.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
These teams weren’t too different last season, and this line is big for Caleb Williams’ professional debut. It’s also a good opportunity for an emotional hedge, where if Caleb makes a couple silly mistakes and the Bears win or lose a close game I can take comfort in getting the pick right. Taking the Titans and the points is probably the right move, but it feels like a meek way to start the Caleb Williams era, and Chicago legend Ferris Bueller once said, “only the meek get pinched. The bold survive”. Bear down, Chicago Bears! Bears -4.5
Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 vs. New England Patriots
Yipes! If Joe Burrow isn’t fully healthy, we’ll know it immediately. If he is, this spread shouldn’t be too much of a problem for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. This will be New England’s first game without the best coach in the history of the sport since 1999. Their offensive line seems to be an ungodly mess, their defense is down two of their best players and the aforementioned Belichick to start the season, and Jacoby Brissett is likely starting just to keep Drake Maye from being devoured too early in his career. I’ll take the team that can definitely score points. Bengals -8.5
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 vs. Houston Texans
I assume this line reflects the general optimism around Colts’ quarterback Anthony Richardson. The Colts are a pretty good team without a lot of impact players, and Richardson is the piece that could turn them into something exciting. Unfortunately, he barely played before getting injured last season and he was considered extremely raw coming into the league. I’ll take the wildly impressive C.J. Stroud in his second year to win by at least a field goal and live with the possibility of a revelatory performance from Richardson. Texans -2.5
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I think the Jags should be better this year, but no defense seems entirely ready for what the Mike McDaniel offense throws out at the start of each season, and Jacksonville has some question marks over there already. The Dolphins have started 3-0 both seasons with McDaniel, and I think they’ll drop 30 to start off the season. I need better ball security from Trevor Lawrence and all of his offensive weapons before I can say the same for Jacksonville. Dolphins -3
New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Oof, the Panthers and their embarrassing owner are back. Maybe they got some things figured out in the offseason, but Carolina was comfortably the worst team in football last year and they didn’t have their first-round pick in this year’s draft. The Saints are the NFL embodiment of the treadmill of mediocrity, but mediocre should beat utterly inept by at least a touchdown. Saints -4.5
New York Giants +1 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold is a road favorite. I repeat: SAM DARNOLD IS A ROAD FAVORITE. What is going on in the world that people have started to believe in the Sam Darnold reclamation project? I don’t like the Giants or Daniel Jones very much, but Brian Daboll is a solid coach and they won at least one game last season with Tommy DeVito under center. I’m not even breaking the numbers down more, I’m just taking the points against Mr. Mononucleosis himself. Giants +1
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Okay so…both teams here are in rebuilding phases, but one employs Justin Herbert and the other employs Gardner Minshew. I like Minshew a lot because his mustache is great and he’s fun to watch, but he has real limitations as an NFL passer; this is his fourth team in six seasons for a reason. Add in that the Chargers are probably a little pissed about being embarrassed 63-21 when these teams met in Week 15 last year, and it’s enough for me to give them the edge even if I don’t expect an immediate turnaround. Chargers -3
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are officially resetting from the Russell Wilson deal, and their new quarterback is…Bo Nix! He’s not quite my age, but he’s very seasoned for an NFL rookie, and the environment he’s walking into is adequate. Sean Payton is still a good offensive coach (the Broncos finished 19th in Offensive DVOA somehow), and his receivers are fine. Unfortunately, he’ll be going against an explosive Seattle offense and maybe the best defensive coach in the NFL in his debut. The aforementioned Mike Macdonald is in Seattle now, and I’m sure he can’t wait to see what Nix is actually ready for. Don’t overthink it, take the veteran team at home. Seahawks -5.5
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Deshaun Watson is the quarterback for the Browns, right? I know the Cowboys had a rough offseason and somehow plan to start Ezekiel Elliott at running back, but the Browns’ defense was exposed late last season. Dak Prescott and even Mike McCarthy should be able to find some holes like C.J. Stroud did with a full offseason to prepare, and Mike Zimmer might be a better defensive coach than the departed Dan Quinn. Both teams had embarrassing playoff defeats, but the Browns needed an immaculate stretch from Joe Flacco to even get there. I think this year goes down the tubes fast for Cleveland. Cowboys +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders
I’m pretty sure Baker Mayfield is going to regress this season, and I have no idea what to expect from rookie Jayden Daniels in Washington. He has Terry McLaurin to throw to, and he’s capable of ripping off big plays in the air or on the ground, but…Week 1 against Todd Bowles? With a defense lacking impact players to freak Mayfield out or a strong secondary to cover Mike Evans and Chris Godwin? I don’t like it, but betting against rookie QBs in their first game is usually a good move. Buccaneers -3.5
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Another tasty rematch from last year’s postseason, with the Lions welcoming Matthew Stafford back to Detroit once again. Their playoff matchup came down to the wire, but I have a few reasons to believe this one won’t be as close. The Los Angeles Rams no longer employ Aaron Donald, whom you may have heard of. Their offense will still be operating at a high level, but the Lions made some big upgrades to their defense in the offseason and the Rams only got to 23 points last time. I also just think the Lions are going to be on a warpath this season. They somehow retained their full coaching staff and added solid players across the roster, and they were painfully close to a Super Bowl appearance. This will be the start of a lot of big wins for them this year. Lions -3.5
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 vs. New York Jets
Remember what I said above about aging quarterbacks coming off achilles’ injuries? Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn achilles, and the majority of the football-covering world seems to think he’s ready to rock and roll like the year is…wait, when was Rodgers’ last good year without the help of Matt LaFleur? 2016? It seems relevant because the current Offensive Coordinator for the Jets is Nathaniel Hackett, who flamed out awesomely in Denver before being hired by the Jets because he was buddies with Rodgers. Everyone is expecting a big year from Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall, but I still see a lot of big questions along the offensive line and another year of aging and free agency eating away at a solid defense. The 49ers are dealing with some issues of their own, of course, but I’m going to need a lot of evidence before I start thinking Aaron Rodgers is ready to hop back into the discussion of top 5 quarterbacks in the league. 49ers -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
