2020 NFL Picks Week 4: Big Favorites and Road Teams
Back on top! Sure, we may only be one game over .500, but I’m willing to take any win I can get in 2020. This week is already short one game with a string of positive COVID tests delaying the Pittsburgh-Tennessee game, but let’s be like the NFL and pretend not to worry about the implications of that. Instead, let’s admire the remaining undefeated teams and their quarterbacks: the Packers and Aaron Rodgers; the Seahawks and Russell Wilson; the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger; the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes; the Bills with Josh Allen; the Titans with Ryan Tannehill; and of course the Bears, with Nick Foles. Just like we all expected. Cheers to Week 4!
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
This was a tough game to pick, even without understanding who would be playing quarterback for Denver. I really thought it would be Blake Bortles, but it seemed important to debate who should be favored in any case. The Jets have looked utterly useless in every game they’ve played this season, while Denver has hung tight in games despite a long list of injuries. I took the Broncos -2.5, and somehow came out with a win. With Adam Gase leading the Jets, anything is possible. Broncos -2.5
Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals lost a bit of steam with their loss to the Lions this week, but it’s still hard to think they’re on the same level as the Panthers. Carolina can barely stop anyone’s offense, and Kyler Murray should bounce back in a big way against their defense this week. Teddy Bridgewater might be able to move the ball on Arizona’s mediocre defense, but I expect them to fall behind like they did against Tampa Bay earlier this year. Once the game is out of reach, it will only go downhill quickly. Cardinals -3.5
Chicago Bears +3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I was a bit surprised to see the Bears getting points at home here. Sure, the Colts’ defense has been surprisingly strong and they’re coming in with a 2-1 record, but Philip Rivers is really making things interesting for their offense. I think Chicago’s defense is set to take advantage of every mistake Rivers makes, and with Foles under center for the whole game they should be able to make 20+ points happen on offense. This is a great opportunity to get some points with the home team. Bears +3
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ahh, the Bengals. They’ve certainly made things interesting each week, and Joe Burrow has looked very solid for a rookie. The Jaguars don’t have a whole lot of real strengths, so this should be a fun game to watch. I think both teams will end up with some big plays and quite a few points, but I’m not sure if Burrow is ready to pull out the game-winning drive just yet. These teams are close enough to just go with the free points. Jaguars +3
Dallas Cowboys -5 vs. Cleveland Browns
So the Browns finally “bounce back” with wins over the Bengals and Football Team, and they’re only getting two extra points on the road against Dallas this week. Can someone explain this line to me? Dallas’s defense has struggled, but they’ve also played against quite a few solid teams. They seem closer to the Baltimore than Cincinnati or Washington at this point. If they can jump out to a lead, their skill position players will turn this one into a blowout quickly. Cowboys -5
Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees looks old, and without Michael Thomas around his margin for error is even lower than ever. The Lions finally got a win over Arizona last week, but they have plenty of problems left to solve. I really expected this line to be higher, because Detroit shouldn’t be able to keep pace with a competent offense unless Matthew Stafford is recapturing some of his previous form and he gets at least two of his skill position players to step up. I like the Saints here in a real must-win after falling to 1-2. New Orleans Saints -3.5
Houston Texans -4 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Texans are giving four points at home after a brutal first three weeks of the season; no team should be doing great playing the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers to start things off. Minnesota still looks lost for the most part, but their offense showed some signs of life last week in their game against the Titans. Unless Houston can get some consistent pressure to disrupt Minnesota’s play-action attack, I think they’ll struggle to come away with a win here. Four points is just a bit too much. Vikings +4
Miami Dolphins +6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Ryan Fitzpatrick loves nothing more than facing a large spread, and the Seattle defense is very prone to big plays at the worst possible times. Of course, Russell Wilson is being unleashed every week at this point and I’m not sure how many NFL teams have a defense ready to deal with his deep-ball perfection. Miami might be able to mount a comeback here, but I think it’s more likely the Seahawks jump out to a huge lead early and keep their foot on the gas to cruise to 4-0. Seahawks -6.5
Tennessee Titans -1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
We were going to pick the Steelers +1 here, but the game is postponed for the time being. Womp womp. Steelers +1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I’ve gone back and forth on this one at least five times. The Chargers have looked surprisingly good, even with Tyrod Taylor out and rookie Justin Herbert taking over at quarterback. Their defense still has a lot of talent, and they have some skill position players capable of big plays. With Tom Brady not looking great through the first few weeks, I’m hoping their defense can really clamp down on the lesser Los Angeles team here and lead the way to a big victory. Buccaneers -7.5
Washington Football Team +13 vs. Baltimore Ravens
People seem disappointed in Baltimore’s performance last week, but I think it was really a case of Patrick Mahomes doing what he does and the Ravens pushing the panic button a bit too early. Their offense is still incredibly efficient, and their defense looks great against the majority of opponents. The Washington Football Team is considerably worse than the majority of opponents, and the Ravens will be getting back on track in a big way. Ravens -13
Los Angeles Rams -12 vs. New York Giants
Look, it doesn’t even matter what I said about the Giants last week, or the week before. Both New York teams are bad, but somehow the Giants appear to have the lesser offense of the two. They have scored 38 points in three games, and now Daniel Jones will be working against Aaron Donald. The Rams looked great in their comeback against Buffalo last week, and this is much less of a challenge. I expect this game to be over early. Rams -12
Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. New England Patriots
Patrick Mahomes may well be unstoppable, so it’s a good thing he’s endearing in his interviews. The Patriots are definitely not endearing, but I still love to see a rejuvenated Cam Newton producing yet again. I have a hard time figuring out how New England wins outright, but I have an even harder time passing up Bill Belichick and Co. getting a full touchdown. Patriots +7
UPDATE: With Cam Newton’s positive COVID test, Brian Hoyer was named the starter for this game and the new line was set at Chiefs -10.5. We took the Chiefs at that line, and they covered with the help of a late pick-six.
Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I might just underestimate the Raiders’ offense all season, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take. Buffalo should be able to put enough pressure on Derek Carr to force some mistakes going down the field, and if the Bills get the same version of Josh Allen they’ve had so far this season, scoring points isn’t a problem. It might turn into another shootout, but I like Buffalo to come out of this 4-0. Bills -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The absurd run of injuries suffered by San Francisco has to bit them at some point, and I think it will be this week. The Eagles have looked so-so all season long, but playing against a lot of backups will give them a chance to put together a solid game. It won’t be enough to win unless Carson Wentz can recapture some of his 2017-18 magic. It will be enough to keep things interesting against a team who got to play the Jets and Giants the past two weeks. Eagles +6
Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I’m not sure if the Falcons are allowed to just lose to a favorite like this line suggests. Don’t they have to get out to a significant lead first? Anyway, the resurgence of Aaron Rodgers has drawn a lot of attention away from a Green Bay defense giving up nearly 30 points per game, and it’s easy to see Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s stable of wide receivers taking advantage of their weaknesses. I don’t think they’ll win until they reverse whatever juju they picked up at halftime of Super Bowl 51, but they should keep it close. Falcons +6.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
