2020 NFL Picks Week 5: Tuesday Night Football?
Two lines remain at large (New England-Denver and Tennessee-Buffalo) with COVID concerns, but we have our other thirteen picks locked in.
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers came into this game with a formidable defense and plenty of explosive weapons for Tom Brady to use on offense. Naturally, they lost outright to a Bears team who managed under 300 yards of offense. I really thought Tampa would be able to smother Nick Foles and the Chicago offense the way Indianapolis did last week, so I picked them to cover six points. Maybe next week the Bucs will consider going for it instead of kicking three field goals of less than 40 yards. Buccaneers -6
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Carolina has impressed recently with wins over the Chargers and Cardinals, but first-year head coach Matt Rhule will be running into some ugly history for his team in this one. The Panthers have lost eight of their last nine games against the Falcons, and only two of those losses were by one score. While I like what I’ve seen from Teddy Bridgewater in his first year in Carolina, I think the Panthers will struggle to keep up with the still-explosive Atlanta offense. Even if Mike Davis has another big day filling in for Christian McCaffrey, I like Matt Ryan to keep things out of reach. Falcons -3.5
Houston Texans -6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bill O’Brien is out as the Head Coach, Playcaller, and General Manager of the Houston Texans. I think I have a number of friends who wish the franchise had made this decision before he traded away Deandre Hopkins (never forget), but better late than never, right? Well, maybe not. Romeo Crennel will be filling in for O’Brien as the head coach, and he hasn’t exactly decorated himself in glory in that role before. Jacksonville has enough offensive talent to put up points on Houston’s lackluster defense, so I’m expecting a back-and-forth affair ending in some heroics from Deshaun Watson. It will be enough to win, but probably not to cover. Jaguars +6.5
Kansas City Chiefs -12 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Will the Chiefs have a letdown after taking down the Ravens and Patriots in consecutive weeks? The Raiders will need a real off-game from Patrick Mahomes to stay competitive in this one, and I think he’ll actually be relishing the opportunity to play the league’s 30th-ranked defense after two tough defenses in a row. The Raiders under Jon Gruden haven’t kept things competitive against Andy Reid’s Chiefs in their last three meetings, and this one will be no different. Chiefs -12
New England Patriots ??? vs. Denver Broncos
TBD
New York Jets +6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have been very bad since getting off to a surprising 2-0 start, but I have real faith in Kliff Kingsbury to get things going after seeing their offense pick up steam over the course of 2019. The same can’t be said for the Jets, who are 0-4 and have Adam Gase at head coach, a man who said “we’ve got to put everything in hyperdrive” between a 13-point outing against the 49ers and a 7-point showing in Indianapolis. They got things going to some extent with 28 points against the Broncos last week, but still managed to lose by 9 to a team starting their 3rd-string quarterback. This is a great opportunity for the Cards to get back on track, and they will. Cardinals -6.5
Tennessee Titans ??? vs. Buffalo Bills
TBD
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
We managed to make up for a middling week of picks last week by picking the Eagles’ moneyline against San Francisco, but that late decision was more a reflection of the injury-ravaged Niners’ squad than faith in Philly. Their offense just can’t get things going, due in large part to an equal-parts injured and ineffective offensive line. That’s a bad situation to be in heading to Pittsburgh, where T.J. Watt and co. continue to wreak havoc on a weekly basis. With Roethlisberger going over the top on Philadelphia’s weak secondary and no rhythm to be found for Carson Wentz, this should become a blowout fast. Steelers -7
Baltimore Ravens -14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow has been very impressive in his rookie year, and I like what I’ve seen from the Bengals as a whole. Unfortunately, they’re still at a talent deficit relative to most of the NFL, and especially to their division rivals in Baltimore. The Ravens have been stomping on lesser opponents regularly since Lamar Jackson’s breakout game against the Dolphins last year, and they’ll have no problem running up the score on Cincy. I think their aggressive defense will prevent Burrow from beating us on a backdoor cover, so I’m taking the big favorites. Ravens -14
Washington Football Team +9 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams really bummed me out by only allowing 9 points to the Giants last week but failing to cover nonetheless. Washington may be even more turnover-prone than the Giants, though, and they seem intent on starting Kyle Allen at quarterback in this game. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to bench Dwayne Haskins (he was forced into a starting role much earlier than planned with Alex Smith’s injury), but it’s definitely a bad idea to start Kyle Allen. Aaron Donald will be in his lap most of the afternoon, and when he does get the ball away, I expect Jalen Ramsey and whoever else the Rams have asked to play in their secondary to be pouncing routes left and right. I didn’t get the blowout last week, but this week I will! Rams -9
San Francisco 49ers -8.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
I feel a little bad for the Niners here, who have gotten off to a good start but been overshadowed by Russell Wilson’s heroics and ravaged by injuries. The line here seems a little excessive, though; the injuries they’ve suffered are very real, and the Dolphins pose a much stiffer challenge than the Jets or Giants. Nick Mullens or CJ Beathard are both good enough to win this game with the talent San Francisco has assembled, but nine points is a reach. Dolphins +8.5
Cleveland Browns +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
My biggest takeaway from the Bears’ victory over Tampa Bay on Thursday was that Indy’s defense is for real. I really thought the Bears would lose by at least six, because Tampa’s defense would be on par with the Colts’, and it took Chicago all game to get to 11 last week. If the Colts bring the same defensive performance to this week’s games, Cleveland won’t be able to score on the series of trick plays they used to go off against Dallas. The game will be in Baker Mayfield’s hands, and he hasn’t been particularly impressive this year. I expected this line to be closer to 3, so let’s take the extra point-and-a-half. Colts -1.5
Dallas Cowboys -9.5 vs. New York Giants
Another situation where a very porous defense is going against a hapless offense. Can Daniel Jones do what the Browns, Falcons, and Seahawks did? We know the Cowboys can score points in a hurry, so the only question with this line is how well the Giants will be able to keep up. With their season average of 11.8 points per game, I’m thinking no. Cowboys -9.5
Seattle Seahawks -7.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I went back and forth on this line a couple of times this week, but finally decided on the Vikings after seeing it at 7.5. Russell Wilson has been on fire since opening kickoff, but he’s been covering a lot of holes in the Seattle defense. The Seahawks have allowed no fewer than 23 points in a game this season, and the Vikings have looked better each week. Even their dismal performance against the Colts is starting to make more sense. Seattle should still win this game, but without Jamal Adams they’ll give up more points than I’d like with this line. Vikings +7.5
New Orleans Saints -7.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Apparently Justin Herbert is good. There aren’t many rookies who look as effective as he has so far this season, and the rest of the Chargers have looked good enough to keep them right on the competitive bubble like they seem to be every year. I don’t think they’re quite ready to compete with a team like the Saints, though, and the New Orleans’ defense will be a more serious test than anything Herbert and the Chargers’ offense has faced this year. I like the home team in a blowout here. Saints -7.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Carolina-Atlanta OVER 54.5
Philadelphia-Pittsburgh OVER 44.5
Miami-San Francisco OVER 49.5
Los Angeles-New Orleans OVER 51
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
