2020 NFL Picks Week 6: Bouncing Back
Last week was a tough one, with the late addition of Buffalo -3.5 dropping us back to .500 on the season. I mean, it’s obviously very important to take coronavirus seriously, but there shouldn’t have been a line available if the Bills were just not going to show up for their Tuesday Night Football game against the Titans. The Week 6 slate felt a little easier as I was making picks, so let’s see if we can get back out ahead!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have parted ways with Dan Quinn, leaving Raheem Morris in charge of a very disappointing 0-5 team. Morris was last seen leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 17-31 record over three seasons, so even if he’s learned some valuable lessons in the years since, I’m not sure we should expect a stunning reversal in Atlanta. Minnesota is sitting at 1-4 but has looked good in recent weeks, with two one-point losses to the Titans and Seahawks sandwiching a win over Houston. They should have no trouble keeping the offense rolling against whatever Atlanta is calling a defense these days. Unfortunately for the Falcons, I think Matt Ryan is starting to show his age, and Minnesota’s pressure defense will force a lot of mistakes. This one should be over early. Vikings -3.5
Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Chicago Bears
The Panthers are starting to look legitimately good, with a win over the Chargers and a close loss to the Raiders looking better in recent weeks. It’s impossible to know what to make of the Bears, who now sit at 4-1 despite scoring just 21.0 points per game. I would like to credit a dominant defense, but they’re just 5th in DVOA and almost blew a 17-point lead to Daniel Jones. I didn’t expect either of these teams to have a winning record at this point, but I’m a little more suspicious of the Panthers’ defense than the Bears’ offense. A few big plays from Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson should be enough for a road win here. Bears +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Colts have Browns fans feeling pretty good, but this week they’re running into something they haven’t faced since Week 1: a competent quarterback and a stingy defense on the same team. Their game against the Ravens ended in a 38-6 loss, and while I don’t expect Pittsburgh to quite reach that level of play, 4 points isn’t enough against a Cleveland offense yet to produce a 300-yard passer. Steelers -4
Indianapolis Colts -8 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I like almost nothing I’ve seen from Philip Rivers this season. He’s playing like the 38-year old he is, and it seems like he needs his team to have a lead in order to do anything successfully. The Bengals aren’t really scaring anyone, but Joe Burrow has looked good enough to get some points up against most teams. That and an extra 8 points should be enough against a team averaging just 20.2 offensive points per game. Bengals +8
New England Patriots -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Cam Newton is back in the lineup, and even if it’s hard to imagine him being near 100%, his return should be enough to lift New England’s offense back above average. Denver continues to have injuries stacking up, and traveling to face a Belichick defense is not going to make anything easier. Patriots -9.5
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have no trouble crushing teams without explosive offenses. All four of their wins this season have come by at least 14 points, and the Eagles haven’t looked markedly better than the Browns or Texans. With Philadelphia’s defense letting teams go off for 29.0 points per game, Lamar Jackson should have no trouble getting into the 30s. Ravens -7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Detroit Lions
The 1-3 Lions are favored by 3 points on the road against a team with an offense. Hard pass. Jaguars +3
New York Giants -3 vs. Washington Football Team
The line here isn’t necessarily weird, because the Football Team has looked utterly lost regardless of who is in at quarterback. Washington’s defensive line has a much better chance of doing damage than any unit for the Giants, though. Football Team +3
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. Houston Texans
I’m not sure there’s much for Houston fans to be excited about beyond a future with someone other than Bill O’Brien making decisions. Unfortunately, we’re a long way from the offseason. Unless this is the week the Ryan Tannehill carriage turns back into a pumpkin, the Texans won’t be able to keep up. Titans -3.5
Miami Dolphins -8 vs. New York Jets
The Jets are really bad, and Adam Gase is still employed. You might be able to create a team to beat the Jets out of players Gase failed to get production from; Robbie Anderson, Ryan Tannehill, and Le’Veon Bell are playing better than Jamison Crowder, Sam Darnold, and Frank Gore. Until Gase leaves the building, no line is too big, as evidenced by New York’s -86 point differential. Dolphins -8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
I think this line is giving a lot of credit to 43-year old Tom Brady, because Tampa Bay just can’t stay out of their own way from a penalties standpoint. The Bucs will need their defense to justify their 2nd-place ranking by DVOA (I’m a little concerned they let the Bears get to 20) and keep Aaron Rodgers grounded if they’re going to come away with a win here. I like the seven years of youth I’m getting with Rodgers. Packers -1.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Niners definitely need this game more than the Rams do, but they need a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo or a dominant defensive performance to get it. Sean McVay has the Rams’ offense moving along too well to undo the damage Aaron Donald will be doing in San Francisco’s backfield. Rams -3
Buffalo Bills +4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I went back and forth on this one a couple of times, because 4.5 points seems like a lot for the home team to be getting based on one bad performance against Tennessee last week. The problem here has more to do with play styles, though. Kansas City has struggled against teams who control the ball and stay on schedule offensively. For all of Josh Allen’s growth, I’m not sure the Buffalo offense has reached that level of consistency yet. He might still pull off a couple of huge gains on chunk throws, but Patrick Mahomes can match each of those and throw in a few extra for fun. The Chiefs should be able to get a lead and play opportunistic defense to extend it. Chiefs -4.5
Dallas Cowboys +2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
We know the Cowboys won’t be slowing down the Cardinals, because the Cowboys gave up 34 points to the Giants, whose previous season high was 16. Will Arizona be able to do anything about Andy Dalton with all of the weapons Dallas has surrounded him with? Yes, because he’s Andy Dalton. Cardinals -2.5
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Cleveland-Pittsburgh OVER 51.5
Houston-Tennessee OVER 53.5
Baltimore-Philadelphia OVER 46.5
Kansas City-Buffalo OVER 57.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
