2024 NFL Picks Conference Championships: Party Crashers
Not exactly the Divisional weekend we were hoping for in terms of absolute results or our picks. I’m a little sad about losing a cover to a push because of a missed extra point in the Eagles game, but I’m far sadder about losing the Lions for the rest of the season. Jayden Daniels played a great game, and I hope he can do it again this week, but this Detroit team was a lot of fun to watch. Let’s get to the picks!
Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Washington Commanders
This line has actually gone up since I first spotted it, but I can’t figure out why. Saquon Barkley has had a great season and the Philadelphia defense has been really good, but their defense was healthy when they gave up 36 points to Washington in Week 16. Jayden Daniels is playing his best ball of the season since the team’s Week 14 bye, and I’m not sure the Eagles will have the answers they need to keep the Commanders down all game long. Philadelphia has been historically pass-averse in their playoff run so far, and as much fun as we’ve all had with the running back renaissance this season (quick note to check on how Josh Jacobs’ and Derrick Henry’s new teams did in the postseason), you can’t win without passing the ball. Jalen Hurts might be injured or he might have just developed a lot of bad habits, but either way he’s been straight up bad. Philly’s control of the line of scrimmage will give them a good chance to win, but they shouldn’t be favored by this much. Commanders +5
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Here we go again. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are meeting in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons, and the spread suggests we have another classic on our hands. The Chiefs are 3-0 in their postseason meetings, so what would make it different this time around? Well, the Bills come into this game with the most effective run game they’ve had in years which has really eased the burden placed on Josh Allen. We’ve seen them improve dramatically just over the course of this season based on their two games against the Ravens, and their defense has been good enough to shut the Broncos down entirely and hold Baltimore under 30 points. Which is all well and good, but Patrick Mahomes is waiting at Arrowhead with Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs are now 16-1 in games they’ve played their starters this season, and four of their six wins by more than one score have come in the last four games they’ve tried to win. Hollywood Brown’s return gives Kansas City their best set of offensive weapons since Rashee Rice went out for the year, and Buffalo’s defense isn’t nearly as good as Houston’s. It should be a great game, but I’m not picking against Mahomes at home with a spread this small. Chiefs -1.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
