2024 NFL Picks Super Bowl LIX: The Rematch No One Asked For
Such a dramatic season with so many compelling storylines, and we find ourselves in a rematch of a game just two years ago. The Chiefs won that one in a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle that featured a defensive holding call in a critical moment that some lunatics might see as early evidence of a pro-Kansas City conspiracy; can Philly get the best of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes this time around?
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 “vs.” Philadelphia Eagles
Let’s start with DVOA. The Eagles are now 3rd in Total DVOA and the Chiefs are 6th, with Philadelphia’s league-leading defense as the standout unit. The Eagles shut down the Packers before looking a little more vulnerable against the Rams and Commanders, at least when their receivers and running backs weren’t fumbling away opportunities for Jayden Daniels to keep the game close. Kansas City’s offense was similarly impressive against the Bills, where they routinely converted third downs whenever they needed them most. The matchup of the Chiefs’ offense against the Eagles’ defense is the most interesting one to look at, both because of their relative strengths and Philly’s need to keep Kansas City under 30 points in this one. Yes, the Eagles scored a lot of points against the Commanders last week; Washington finished the season 16th in DVOA and 26th against the run. The Chiefs are a very sound tackling team and won’t give up more than one 40+ yarder to Saquon Barkley unless Jalen Hurts can threaten them through the air. While Saquon registered a carry of 50+ yards in a ridiculous seven of 19 games this season, the Chiefs allowed a running back carry of 50+ yards once and 20+ yards in just five of 19 games.
Let’s dig into the Saquon Barkley piece a bit, because this is where my perspective on the game seems to differ most from the public’s. The former Giants running back has had an amazing season and he’s incredibly fun to watch. The way he accelerates in the second level is crazy, and he routinely leaves defenders turned around in his dust. Unfortunately, there’s a reason the value of running backs was debated in the first place and ultimately downgraded; they can’t carry a team against top-tier competition on their own. Barkley gets to run behind what is probably the best offensive line in the league, but they’re a little banged up coming into this game. Steve Spagnuolo will not let the Eagles win the game by just handing off to Saquon, and he’s one of the best single-game defensive planners we’ve ever seen. The last time you could make the case that an RB-led team won the Super Bowl was the 1998 Denver Broncos with Terrell Davis, and they had John Elway and were utterly dominant all season long. You need to be able to pass to win a Super Bowl, and Jalen Hurts hasn’t been doing it at a high level this season, even compared to how he and this offense looked two years ago when they played against a worse version of this Chiefs’ defense. Through three playoff games the Eagles have 683 rushing yards and 416 net passing yards; the last team to win the Super Bowl with more rushing yards than net passing yards in the game was the 2005-06 Pittsburgh Steelers over the Seahawks. It was a considerably different league then, and the Chiefs’ defense is 9th in DVOA against the run this year.
When the Chiefs have the ball, we’ll get to see Andy Reid go to work against the top-tier unit Vic Fangio has produced this season. The Eagles had the best defense in the league by DVOA this year, but they’re not a historically dominant team. Patrick Mahomes has plenty of experience going against defenses that are more dangerous, and the Eagles’ best players are in the back seven or the interior of the defensive line. Consistent edge pressure has been the key to really wrecking Kansas City’s gameplan in the past (see: Super Bowl LV against Tampa Bay), and that isn’t Philadelphia’s strength. It doesn’t mean they can’t find success, but it won’t be in the same way teams have found it in the past. Schematically, while I like a lot of what Fangio does, we have a decent sample size of Reid and Mahomes facing his defenses; Fangio was the head coach of the Broncos from 2019-22 and the Defensive Coordinator of the Dolphins in 2023. He went up against the Chiefs eight times in that stretch, and Kansas City went 8-0 in those games while averaging 26.9 points per game. Now Reid has two weeks to prepare and the Chiefs’ offense seems to be peaking at the right time; in the last four games when they’ve played starters, Kansas City has averaged 27.8 points per game against defenses ranked in the top 11 by DVOA.
Finally, let’s look at the bigger picture. Usually teams don’t have a large enough sample size in the postseason to look at historical “big game” trends, but Kansas City is an exception in the same way New England was for so long. Since Patrick Mahomes came in as the starter, the Chiefs have played 20 playoff games. They’re 17-3 straight up and 15-5 against the spread in those games (14-6 if you count the final line for Houston this year at 9.5). They’ve won nine straight playoff games and covered all seven where they were favored by less than a touchdown. Could they lose this game? Of course they could! It’s the NFL and the Eagles might have the deepest roster in the league. Would I bet on it? Absolutely not. Chiefs -1.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
