2024 NFL Picks Divisional Weekend: The MVP Showdown
Okay, so we had an embarrassing oversight last week with the graphics for our picks post. After talking to Yax on the podcast I became convinced the Rams were going to beat the VIkings and I switched the pick to Rams +2.5. I even wrote 147 words to explain the pick! But I didn’t update the main picks graphic or the one in the post, so I’m going to count that one as a tie in our record for the season. We’ll make sure it doesn’t happen again this week on any of the four picks. Let’s get to it!
Kansas City Chiefs -8 vs. Houston Texans
The competing factors in this game are the Chiefs’ penchant for winning by less than one score and the Texans’ habit of being incompetent offensively. In Weeks 1-14, Kansas City went 12-1 with a bye week and won two games by more than seven points. Houston, meanwhile, finished the season 10-7 with the league’s 26th-ranked offense by DVOA, just one spot ahead of my beloved Chicago Bears. The tiebreaker for me is that Kansas City beat the Browns, Texans, and Steelers by an average of 13 points per game in Weeks 15-17. Hollywood Brown adds a much-needed element to their offense, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t make the type of mistakes Justin Herbert made last week, and Steve Spagnuolo is excited to launch the playoffs version of the Chiefs’ defense. Don’t overthink it, go with Patrick and Andy. Chiefs -8
Detroit Lions -9.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has had a tremendous rookie season, and he looked calm and collected down the stretch against Tampa Bay last week. That was enough to pick up a 23-20 road win over the Bucs, who finished the season ranked 11th in DVOA, 7th on offense and 16th on defense. Now they’re traveling to Detroit to take on the team ranked 2nd in DVOA, 3rd on offense and 5th on defense. It’s a big step up in competition, and while I like some of what Washington’s offense can do, this just isn’t going to be a good game for them. Detroit is banged up on defense, but they’re being talked about as though they’re now a bottom-five defense; that just hasn’t been the case. I fully expect them to come in with a gameplan focused on limiting Terry McLaurin, and I have full faith in the Detroit coaching staff to make it a good one. On the other side of the ball, everything the Lions do matches up well against Washington’s defense; their run game creates explosive plays, they shred man coverage, and they have David Montgomery back to spell Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit is going to score 35+ points in this game, and I don’t think the Commanders can keep up. Lions -9.5
Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I really want the Rams to win this game, but we saw these teams match up in Week 12 and it was ugly. The Eagles’ pass game has serious problems, but they shouldn’t have to rely on it much here because their offensive line can push the Rams around from the jump. Philly’s defense can only do so much if Matthew Stafford comes in on a heater, but their scheme is almost the opposite of what Brian Flores runs in Minnesota. I hope I’m wrong, and that Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua get the Rams out to an early lead and force Jalen Hurts to air it out, but I thought the Week 12 matchup felt like a dominant performance, and that was only eight weeks ago. Eagles -6
Buffalo Bills +1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Here’s the game everyone will be looking forward to this weekend. Two teams in the top four of DVOA with the two leading MVP candidates at quarterback. Playoff football in cold weather in Buffalo. A gambling line that suggests a real coin flip. What more could we ask for? Picking this game almost takes all the fun out of it, so I’m going to keep my analysis brief. Baltimore is a deeper team with Hall of Famers at quarterback and running back, and their defense is up to 6th in DVOA after a rough start because their mid-season adjustments seem to be working wonders. The Bills are very good, and Josh Allen is capable of amazing things, but if he makes mistakes it’s over for Buffalo. That isn’t the case for Baltimore, and I like the margin for error that gives us. Ravens -1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
