2024 NFL Picks Wild Card Weekend: Happy to Be Here
Sometimes survival is good enough. It's hard to know what to expect in Week 18, and I'll take a 7-9 week and a second consecutive season over .500 in our picks. Unlike the NFC and AFC South, though, we're done messing around. It's time for the playoffs, and while I may never come as close to a perfect postseason run as I did last year, I'll never stop trying. Let's break down the six games of Wild Card Weekend!
Houston Texans +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I really want to take the home underdog here, but I can’t do it. The Chargers finished with a better record, a much better point differential, and a 2-5 record against playoff teams. The Texans were 1-5 against playoff teams, and both had some ugly blowouts in those games against top competition. I would be more inclined to go with Houston here if Tank Dell was healthy, but as is they'll need monster days from Nico Collins and Joe Mixon to get any points on the board. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can cause problems for Houston’s shoddy offensive line, and as good as the Texans’ defense has been, I think they'll give Justin Herbert just enough room to flash some of his superhuman traits. With J.K. Dobbins and Ladd McConkey healthy, I think the Chargers will get just enough Jekyll to win 26-20. Chargers -3
Baltimore Ravens -10 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
We've covered this twice already this season, and we've gone 1-1 just blindly following the team that's getting three or more points. Now Pittsburgh has George Pickens physically back in the line-up (mentally, TBD) and they're getting a full ten points! Even Baltimore's big win a few weeks back was a close game midway through the third quarter. If we can get an outcome between the two games these rivals already played this year, we can cover this line easily. Steelers +10
Buffalo Bills -9 vs. Denver Broncos
This one comes down to two big questions: is the Denver Broncos’ defense for real? And what do you think about Bo Nix? Denver’s defense finished the season 4th in DVOA, and they're solid at all three levels. They had some big failures against teams with aggressive, talented quarterbacks though. Denver held these quarterbacks under 20 points: Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Aidan O'Connell (twice) Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Anthony Richardson, and Carson Wentz. Not bad! But only the Buccaneers push the ball down the field consistently and successfully out of that group. They also gave up an average of 31 points per game in six games against Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, and Joe Burrow. I think Josh Allen and the Bills fall more into the second camp than the first. As for Bo Nix? I think he's fine, and that he's done a nice job operating Sean Payton’s scheme to stay ahead of the sticks and minimize turnovers. Their three wins after trailing in the fourth quarter this year came against the Jets, Browns, and Colts, who all rank 19th or worse in DVOA. I expect Josh Allen and the Bills to jump out to a big lead early, and I don't believe in Bo Nix to lead a comeback against Buffalo’s 11th-ranked defense. Bills -9
Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The line is probably too high. Philly has looked great against some of the league's best teams in the second half of the season, but the Packers have been good all year and four of their six losses came against the Lions and Vikings. If Jordan Love is fully healthy after his elbow injury scare last week, Matt LaFleur can do enough to keep this game close. Unfortunately, I don't think he's going to be back at 100%, and they also lost Christian Watson. Philadelphia can control the game on both sides of the ball, and unless your defense can force them to throw and expose the flaws in Jalen Hurts’ game, you're in for a long day. Green Bay’s defense is not the right unit to do it. Eagles -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Washington Commanders
I'm excited to watch this game just to see how quickly they can pass the posted over/under of 50 points. Both teams have explosive offenses and aggressive defenses, and both have mixed impressive highs with puzzling lows. I’m nervous about taking the Commanders because they don’t have any wins over playoff teams with their starting quarterbacks, but they’ve also been hard to blow out. If it’s a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair like I expect, I trust Jayden Daniels to take better care of the ball than Baker Mayfield. Commanders +3
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
You can take what I said about Denver’s defense above and apply it right here to the Vikings; their defense has been great, but when they’ve struggled it’s been against quarterbacks who play loose and sling the ball around in the face of their exotic blitz packages: Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams in the brief stretch before his interim offensive coordinator was promoted to interim head coach. Well, Matthew Stafford is back, and while the Vikings will have eight days off this time, they’re coming off a loss against the Lions just as they were when these teams met in Week 8. I don’t want to count on the Rams after watching them drop 44 on the Bills and then 44 combined points against the 49ers, Jets, and Cardinals, but I want to count on Sam Darnold even less. Let’s go STAFFORD! Rams +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
