2019 NFL Picks Week 7: Are We There Yet?
The oddsmakers in Vegas aren’t necessarily trying to peg a line correctly, but rather trying to get an equal amount of money on both sides of the line so they win regardless of the outcome. This makes it dangerous to try jumping on a trend, because if everyone notices the trend and starts betting on it, the lines will be adjusted to account for it and the trend will quickly reverse. We’ve seen just such a pattern through the first six weeks of this season, with away teams going 56-34 (62.2%) against the spread. I’m hoping it’s a symptom of Vegas overvaluing home field advantage, because we’re loading up on road teams this week. Are we at the end of the road trend? Let’s hope not!
Denver Broncos +3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Did you know that Joe Flacco is pretty bad at football? Yes, he won a Super Bowl on the strength of an impeccably timed Hail Mary and subsequent hot streak, but it’s become clear the hot streak was an aberration. Wins over the Titans and Chargers aren’t inspiring me to think he’s starting a new one, and the Chiefs are coming to town with a proven track record of scoring points, Patrick Mahomes’s ankle be damned. Denver isn’t the team to take advantage of KC’s soft defense, and the Chiefs will put up enough points to cover this spread. Chiefs -3.5
Buffalo Bills -16.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins finally did it! No, of course they didn’t win. Their attempt at a go-ahead two-point conversion was hilarious, but enough things went their way to give them their first cover of the season. The Bills will certainly be presenting a bigger challenge than Washington did, but they’re also getting a much bigger spread at 16.5 points. This game will go one of two ways: either the Dolphins will turn the ball over to Buffalo’s tremendous defense and put them in an inescapable hole en route to a blowout loss, or they’ll be generally incompetent and throw a bunch of incompletions. I’m banking on the latter, and Buffalo’s anemic offense will let the Dolphins cover in a mostly unwatchable game. Dolphins +16.5
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Seeing the Jaguars only giving three points to the second-worst team in the league seems like a great opportunity. Gardner Minshew continues to look like a competent NFL quarterback, and it doesn’t take much more to bury this year’s version of the Bengals. This game should prove a nice respite from a tough slate of early games for the Jags, who have played the Panthers and the Saints in the past two weeks. Cincinnati’s DVOA rankings really speak for themselves, so let’s leave it at that. Jaguars -3
Detroit Lions +1 vs. Minnesota Vikings
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions come out a little demoralized after the officiating disaster that helped them lose to the Packers last week, but they’re too good of a team to lie down at home against a division rival. Minnesota looked good throwing all over Philadelphia’s third-string secondary last week, but so has every team Philly has played this year (no, the Jets and Luke Falk don’t count). They’ll find the sledding much tougher this week against a phenomenal Detroit secondary, and I’m expecting an output closer to the 16 points they scored in Green Bay in Week 2. The Lions can top that and keep themselves in the division race this week, if only because they need to be eliminated in a more painful way later. Lions +1
Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs. Oakland Raiders
Every season there’s a team I expect to be terrible who instead puts everything together and claws their way all the way up to mediocre. The Raiders might just be that team this year, somehow sitting at 3-2 and coming off a win over my Bears in London. I need a bit more evidence than beating Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, and Chase Daniel before I capitulate, though. Even this year’s version of Aaron Rodgers is a much taller task than any of those other names, and the Packers are coming into this home game with the league’s 7th-ranked defense by DVOA. There’s no way Oakland can get out to a lead and keep this one close…right? Packers -5.5
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I know the Rams have looked like an absolute disaster this year, and seeing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley line up against an extremely suspect secondary has to have Matt Ryan salivating. But the Falcons are so, so bad, and they may be uniquely positioned to take advantage of the Rams’ weaknesses less than any other team in the league. The Falcons have the worst adjusted sack rate in the league, and Jared Goff has still been able to produce this year when he’s had time in the pocket. Letting the Rams get out to a lead and unleash Aaron Donald will torpedo any hopes Atlanta has of getting their second win. Rams -3
Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Houston Texans
The Colts have been playing well this year without Andrew Luck, but they’ve run into too many injuries to keep things moving along smoothly. Meanwhile, the Texans seem to be attempting to get the ball out of Deshaun Watson’s hands quickly in order to minimize the impact of their miserable offensive line. What an idea! So far the results have been promising, with big offensive performances against the Chiefs and Falcons in the past two weeks. Indianapolis’s defense hasn’t been keeping pace with their offense this year, and it’s going to bite them against Houston this week. Texans +1
Washington +10 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I’m still blown away by the defensive turnaround in San Francisco, but watching Nick Bosa and the rest of their defensive line has been a ton of fun. They’re dominating the line on both sides of the ball, and I’m always happy to pick a team who can manage that. Even if Jimmy Garoppolo continues to make a couple head-scratching throws every game, Kyle Shanahan’s offensive designs will help them put plenty of points up on the board. Washington almost lost to the Dolphins. 49ers -10
New York Giants -2.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Are the Giants favored in this game because people are still really excited about Daniel Jones? The Cardinals also have a rookie quarterback, but theirs has shown much more reliable skills in recent weeks than New York’s. Neither team has much going for it in terms of defense or special teams, but Arizona seems to have some kind of mojo working after back-to-back wins over the Falcons and Bengals. The Giants aren’t much better than either of those teams, so I’m expecting a similar result. Cardinals +2.5
Tennessee Titans -2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I really want to figure out a way to pick both of these teams to lose. The only difference between the two is expectations; we thought the Chargers might do well this year after a run to the postseason last year, but injuries and general inconsistency have gotten them off to a 2-4 start. The Titans were expected to land somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7, because they still channel the spirit of Jeff Fisher after seventeen seasons under his command. They’re also 2-4, with wins over the Browns and Falcons. The Chargers can at least cobble together a competent offense for a couple drives a game, which is more than we can say for the Titans. Chargers +2
Chicago Bears -3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
This was a tough call, and not just because I’m a Bears fan. The Teddy Bridgewater experience has worked out better than any Saints’ fan could have asked, but the risk-averse style should run into some problems against an aggressive Bears defense, especially with Alvin Kamara sidelined. Of course, a poor offensive showing would be much more troubling if the other team could score points, and the Bears just lost to the Raiders in part because Chase Daniel is being stretched in his role as a starting quarterback. I think this is going to be a rock-fight, and I always like 3.5 points in a rock-fight. Saints +3.5
Seattle Seahawks -4 vs. Baltimore Ravens
This game is being dubbed an Earl Thomas revenge game by everyone who feels obligated to find a deeper storyline in a weekly NFL matchup. The Seahawks have a stupefyingly stupid offensive gameplan that simply isn’t enough to hold Russell Wilson back, while the Ravens have used Lamar Jackson’s running ability effectively to enhance the other aspects of their offense. Neither team has a defense worthy of their franchises’ reputations, but they consistently make the best of bad situations and take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes. Watching two teams this similar is always interesting, and I like the points when I can’t find a decided advantage anywhere else. Ravens +4
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
It’s hard to figure out who’s more injured coming into this game. The Eagles’ secondary has been suffering with many of their top names sitting out games, but if Amari Cooper is also out, I’m not sure who’s going to take advantage of it for the Cowboys. If we were in the early weeks of the season, I’d say Kellen Moore could dial up some big play action shots for Dak Prescott and gain a decided edge in this division battle. Unfortunately, the Dallas offense has been abysmal since the return of Ezekiel Elliott and injuries to their two starting offensive tackles. I’m not enthusiastic about picking either team in this game, but I’ll give the nod to the team that seems to be actively trying to take advantage of its players’ strengths instead of clapping incessantly and blackmailing Jerry Jones. Eagles +3
New York Jets +9.5 vs. New England Patriots
Sam Darnold is back! The Jets picked up a shocking win against the Cowboys last week, but this week’s opponent presents a far greater challenge. I expect the Patriots to be looking for revenge after giving up two non-offensive touchdowns in their meeting earlier this year, and the mediocre Jets’ defense won’t be able to hold down Tom Brady. Expect Sam Darnold to be pressured early and often and enjoy watching the Patriots rack up another win over their pitiful AFC East competition. Some things never change. Patriots -9.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
