2019 NFL Picks Week 8: End of the Road (Trend)
With another stellar performance last week, away teams are up to 64-38 against the spread this year. Nothing so simple should be able to get you a win over 60% of the time, but hats off to anyone who has followed the strategy to this point. Unfortunately, I think this is the week the trend ends, and we start to see things even out a bit. Let’s see which home teams can make statements in Week 8!
Minnesota Vikings -16 vs. Washington
I don’t know if Minnesota is as good as they’ve looked for the past two weeks, but I know Washington was extremely lucky to cover the 10-point spread they faced at home against the 49ers last week. Now they’ll be on the road and in a dome that precludes any weather-related intervention, and we should see their true talent level play out. In case you’ve been under a rock, their true talent level is not high. Even with Adam Thielen out, I expect Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense to make some big plays against Washington’s 24th-ranked defense, and Case Keenum won’t be bringing them back against his old team. Vikings -16
Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
It took the oddsmakers a while to post the line for this game, presumably because they were waiting for an update on Matt Ryan’s injury. Even with a healthy quarterback, the Falcons have lost half of their games by two scores. Russell Wilson will be looking to feast after struggling in the rain against Baltimore last week, and Atlanta’s 29th-ranked defense won’t make him work hard for it. As long as the Seahawks can hold Julio Jones under three touchdowns, winning by one shouldn’t be a problem. Seahawks -6.5
Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The only thing more predictable than a mediocre Titans season is my inability to pick which games they’ll cover the spread in. Need them to hang with Joe Flacco in Denver? Not a chance. Pick them to lose to the Chargers? Never bet on anyone to beat the Chargers at beating themselves. I’m picking Tampa Bay here, partly out of spite and partly because I think it’s hard for Jameis Winston to score fewer than 20 points. Add in an extra 2.5, and that’s enough to beat the Titans four times this season! Buccaneers +2.5
New Orleans Saints -10.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Look, my soon-to-be-wife is a Cardinals fan, and as an Arizona State graduate I have fond memories of competent Cardinals teams making it as far as the Super Bowl. Seeing Kliff Kingsbury remember that David Johnson is an incredibly good receiver is already encouraging, and Kyler Murray has been developing well during his rookie season. Unfortunately, the Cards’ three wins have come against teams with a combined record of 3-18. The Saints, in case you haven’t been paying attention, are 6-1. They’ll also be at home, possibly with a returning Drew Brees. I’m not going to overthink this one. Saints -10.5
Los Angeles Rams -12.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Rams bounced back in a big way last week, thumping the hopeless Falcons and sending Matt Ryan off the field. This week, they play one of four teams worse than the Falcons at home. Can you think of a reason we should expect a different result? I know the Rams’ defense has been struggling, but if you think Andy Dalton and the injured mash of receivers they’re running out each week are the offense to take advantage of it, I have some WeWork stock to sell you. Jared Goff should have plenty of time against a toothless Bengals’ pass rush, and the Rams will win comfortably. Rams -12.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 vs. New York Jets
I went back and forth on this line a couple of times. On one hand, the Jets have been easy to laugh at all season, and last Monday was no exception. On the other, the joy of watching Gardner Minshew II is at least partially offset by Jacksonville’s surprising 17th-place standing in defensive DVOA. The Patriots have been making everyone look bad this year, and the Jets should be able to put up a fight with Sam Darnold back under center against a non-Patriots defense. I think the Jaguars will win, but it will be close. Jets +5.5
Buffalo Bills -2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo is 5-1, with their one loss coming against the one team on their schedule ranked higher than 26th in DVOA. Their defense is legitimately good, but their offense still has a long way to go before it’s truly threatening. If the Eagles come out and lay an egg like they did against Dallas last week…they should still be able to hang in the game, because the Bills can’t take full advantage of their sloppiness. I think the Eagles will come out of this one with a win. Eagles +2
Chicago Bears -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Since I made this pick, the line has shifted down to Bears -4 which makes a lot more sense. On a scale of 1 to Chargers, losing by 6+ points doesn’t even register! Whether it’s my lack of belief in Mitchell Trubisky or my full confidence in the Chargers to lose only in excruciating ways, 5.5 points is just too high. Philip Rivers should be able to pull out a couple big plays against the stingy Bears defense, and unless we can somehow Freaky Friday someone with Mitchy Biscuits, it’s going to remain low-scoring. Chargers +5.5
Detroit Lions -7 vs. New York Giants
I would have loved to see this line at 6.5, but the hard luck there fits well with what Detroit has experienced this season. And last. And the decade before that, and before that…you get the idea. The biggest risk I can see here is the vocal displeasure we saw after the Lions traded away safety Quandre Diggs this week. If the future-focused move deflates their defense, Danny Dimes might be able to score enough points to keep the Giants in this game. I think the overall gap in quality is too large to explain a one-touchdown spread in Detroit. Lions -7
Houston Texans -6.5 vs. Oakland Raiders
I just keep repeating to myself that the Raiders can’t be good. They can’t be! Derek Carr refuses to throw the ball more than five yards down the field! They rush the passer like they traded away a likely Hall of Famer for draft picks they used on a running back! And yet, here we are in Week 8 and the Raiders are sitting at .500. Houston needs a win this week in a big way, and they’ll be able to carve up the lackluster Oakland defense. Throw in a couple big plays from J.J. Watt, and they should be able to cover a touchdown at home. Texans -6.5
San Francisco 49ers -5.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
San Francisco obviously gets a pass on their performance in a monsoon last week, but it’s surprising to see a Kyle Shanahan offense rated sitting in the middle of the rankings rather than near the top. I think both defenses will show up in a big way in this game, and the game will end in a field goal. With Luke Kuechly, Shaq Thompson, and Brian Burns wreaking havoc and facing a coach whose scheme Kuechly is very familiar with, the Panthers will make this game interesting. They’ll probably lose because Kyle Allen lacks pocket awareness and the 49ers have the top-rated pass rush in the league, but this is the game to watch this weekend. Panthers +5.5
New England Patriots -13.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Shouldn’t this line be a few points higher? Do we think the Browns have bounced back in some way from their early-season struggles, to the point we expect them to suddenly protect Baker Mayfield and help him avoid turning the ball over against a Patriots defense excelling across the board? The game isn’t in London, and I don’t think Bill Belichick is concerned about Freddie Kitchens coming off a bye week. Such is life, in case this is your first season watching the NFL. Patriots -13.5
Indianapolis Colts -6.5 vs. Denver Broncos
The Colts have played a lot of close games this year; none have been decided by more than a touchdown. Playing at home against Joe Flacco is a great time to notch your first big win! Denver comes into the game with a solid defense despite a lackluster pass rush, but it won’t be enough to slow down Jacoby Brissett and Frank Reich all night. With Darius Leonard back in the lineup for the Colts, we can all look forward to seeing a couple blindfolded interceptions over the middle. It seems like a reach based on their DVOA ratings, but the Colts should have what it takes. Colts -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
If Patrick Mahomes was healthy, this would have been such a great game to look forward to on Sunday night. Unfortunately for all of us, he is not. Instead, Matt Moore is Kansas City’s starting quarterback, and Aaron Rodgers is still the starting quarterback on the other side. One game against the Raiders isn’t enough to convince me he’s fully comfortable in Matt Lafleur’s system, but it looks like things are coming together in some big ways. You don’t need to be firing on all cylinders to take advantage of the Chiefs’ mediocre defense, and while I have confidence in Andy Reid to put points up with a backup QB, it won’t be enough here. Packers -4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -14.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Two weeks in a row picking the Dolphins! What has this world come to? I know it seems crazy, but the Steelers are on their third-string quarterback. They certainly shouldn’t have any trouble beating a team whose ownership clearly wants to go 0-16, but covering more than two touchdowns? That’s a tall order against a team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. If he throws more touchdowns to his own team than Pittsburgh, they’ll cover the spread. Dolphins +14.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
