2020 NFL Picks Week 20: Conference Championships
Drew Brees looked a lot worse than I thought, and Aaron Donald looked a lot more injured than I thought; otherwise, the Divisional round went exactly as we expected, right? I certainly planned on two Justin Tucker misses and a running lariat knocking Patrick Mahomes out of the game when I made these picks last week! All we need is one win this week to guarantee a .500-or-better season, so let’s get to the picks!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Green Bay Packers -4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m having trouble getting the right read on Green Bay from last week’s performance. Sean McVay obviously lost some degree of confidence in Jared Goff before the Rams even entered the playoffs, or we wouldn’t have seen a John Wolford cameo in the Wild Card round. The Rams’ defense was great this season, but built largely on the contributions of two superstars in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey; Donald only played 53% of the snaps. The Packers ended up winning comfortably, but the Rams had the ball down 7 early in the fourth quarter. Green Bay is now 14-3 on the season, but just 3-2 against teams with a winning record. One of those losses was their worst showing of the season, a 38-10 loss in Tampa Bay all the way back in Week 6. Unfortunately for the Packers, I think the Buccaneers still pose as much of a threat to them as any team in the league. Tampa pairs a strong defense (5th overall) with a top-tier offense (3rd overall) capable of generating explosive plays. Usually I’d give Green Bay a big edge for playing at home in the playoffs, but something tells me Tom Brady won’t be worried about the weather. If the Packers are going to win this game comfortably, they’re going to need to generate a consistent pass rush to get the ball out of Brady’s hands before his receivers can get open, and they haven’t been able to do that most of this season. The Packers might win (I actually think they’ll lose outright), but they won’t be pulling away from this Tampa Bay offense. Buccaneers +4
Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs’ habit of playing with fire continued into the playoffs, where they managed just a 5-point win over Cleveland, the worst team remaining in the playoff field. Mahomes was gimpy at times and eventually left the game altogether, but the Chiefs were also fortunate enough to benefit from a Cleveland fumble through the end zone at the end of the first half. I was hoping for more than 19 points through three-and-a-half quarters against the Browns’ 25th-ranked defense. Buffalo didn’t exactly sprint out of the gates against Baltimore, seeming to need halftime adjustments to start scoring touchdowns and benefitting from two rare Justin Tucker misses. The Bills can take some comfort from their strong defensive showing and the knowledge that Kansas City’s defense (22nd) is considerably worse than Baltimore’s (9th). If Josh Allen can settle in early and hit some of the deep shots he missed early in last week’s game, we’ll have a shootout on our hands quickly. Neither team has a top-10 run game or top-10 pass defense, and both teams have shown the ability to consistently generate explosive plays. I don’t know if I’m ready to bet against Patrick Mahomes winning a game just yet, but I’m pretty confident they won’t be winning comfortably against the stiffest challenge they’ve faced since their 32-29 win over the Saints in Week 15. Bills +3
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Packers-Buccaneers OVER 51
Chiefs-Bills OVER 54
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
