2020 NFL Picks Week 19: Divisional Weekend
I didn’t think we’d be on fire throughout the playoffs after our Week 17 showing, but I certainly wasn’t expecting an 0-fer in the first round. Taylor Heinecke and injured Jared Goff both looked far better than I expected them to, and it looks like the Browns didn’t need practice or a head coach on the field. Here’s to better luck in the most enjoyable week of the season: Divisional Weekend!
All DVOA figures are pulled from Football Outsiders, a fantastic site for advanced statistics and football commentary.
Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I might be jumping at the opportunity to bet against this version of Green Bay too early. Last season, the Packers went 13-3 against a schedule built on a weak NFC North and NFC East. This year, they finished 13-3 against a weak NFC North and AFC South. Sure, the Titans and Colts were both good, but they went 1-1 in those games. So just one year removed from earning a bye against the league’s 17th-ranked schedule, they earned a bye against the league’s 23rd-ranked schedule. In case you don’t remember (and as a Bears fan, I very much do remember), last year’s Packers were destroyed by the San Francisco 49ers behind their strong run game (7th) and defense (2nd). Now they’re playing the Rams, whose success this season has been build on their strong run game (4th) and defense (4th). I’m a bit scared to be backing John Wolford or an injured Jared Goff here, but Green Bay’s defense finished a very mediocre 17th this year after a 15th-place finish last year. The similarities are a bit too strong for me to ignore entirely, and if anyone can keep Davante Adams out of the end zone, it’s Jalen Ramsey. Give me the free touchdown. Rams +7
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I think this line is a bit lower than it might have been before Wild Card weekend, which is a little hard to understand. Buffalo was out to a two-score lead over a Colts team ranked 10th in DVOA late in the game, while Baltimore never fully pulled away from a 14th-ranked Tennessee team with the league’s 29th-ranked defense. Buffalo presents an entirely different challenge to Baltimore’s defense, so Lamar Jackson is going to need to score a lot more than 20 points to come out ahead in this one. It’s definitely not out of the question, especially with Buffalo’s 17th-ranked run defense, but I like the Bills’ collection of weapons more than what the Ravens have put together. If it was a full three points, I’d probably take the Ravens – less than a field goal, and I like Buffalo. Bills -2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Cleveland Browns
I guess people weren’t very impressed with Cleveland’s win over the Steelers! Of course, the Chiefs won all three of their playoff games last season by at least 11 points, but I’m a little more hesitant to pick this year’s version as a huge favorite. For one thing, they haven’t won a game by double digits since Week 8; last year, they won four of their last five games by 10+ points. Their defense took a small, but notable step back year-over-year, dropping from 14th last season to 22nd this year. I don’t feel great about Baker Mayfield lighting things up, but he might not have to with Nick Chubb gashing the Chiefs’ 31st-ranked run defense. I don’t want to be betting against Patrick Mahomes when he has the ball on the last drive of the game, but I’m even more worried about counting on the Kansas City defense to prevent the league’s 9th-ranked offense from closing the gap late. Browns +10
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was actually pretty excited about the Bucs’ hopes in this year’s playoffs, partially because I thought Tom Brady leading a Florida-based team to Green Bay for a playoffs game might make some commentators’ heads explode. Then I picked them to cover 8.5 points against a guy named Taylor Heinecke, and they failed me. Somehow the team that finished 5th in defensive DVOA gave up 23 points to the Washington Football Team, and they haven’t shown any ability to slow down 41-year old Drew Brees, allowing 72 points in their two matchups this year. Even worse, the Saints’ defense finished 2nd in defensive DVOA and has only given up 26 points to the Bucs in their two meetings this year. Mitchell Trubisky may only be a tiny bit better than Taylor Heinecke, but the New Orleans defense responded as they should have and didn’t give up a touchdown until the very definition of garbage time. If Bill Belichick was Tampa Bay’s coach, I might count on him to come up with a scheme to limit the New Orleans offense and catapult Tom Brady to another playoff victory. Instead, I think this is the type of game where Tom realizes just how nice he had it in New England. Saints -3
Over/Under Parlay of the Week
In a new segment this season, I’ll pick a number of over/under bets I like and plan to put into a parlay. I wouldn’t necessarily recommend that approach, but if you like the individual elements I won’t stop you from following my lead:
Browns-Chiefs OVER 56
Rams-Packers OVER 46
Buccaneers-Saints OVER 51.5
Ravens-Bills OVER 50
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
