2021 NFL Picks Week 1: What Year Is It, Anyway?
Last Season: 131-131-4
This Week:
We made a bold promise this time last year to have our first-ever over-.500 season, and we almost pulled it off. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay finished the deconstruction of Kansas City’s offensive line in the Super Bowl, and missing our final pick landed us squarely at 131-131-4. It stung, even worse than the usual Tom-Brady-just-won-another-Super-Bowl-ring feeling we get in February. But this is a NEW year! There’s a pandemic encouraging us all to stay in our homes on Sundays, the Bears are starting a journeyman in Week 1 instead of a younger quarterback who could theoretically develop, and…wait…it is a new year, right?
I’m told it is in fact 2021, but the Tampa Bay starting lineups wouldn’t give things away. They’re returning all 22 starters from the dangerous stretch-run team they were in the back half of last season, and we’ll be starting our Week 1 picks with them:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
We’re starting 0-1 this year, but Thursday night’s game didn’t change my opinion of these two teams drastically. The Cowboys have a terrible head coach and a bad defense holding back an exceptionally dangerous defense, and the Buccaneers are strong across the board but prone to sloppy play. The Bucs ended up winning by 2, but they had three very sloppy turnovers to bail out the Dallas defense. Dak looked as healthy as any Cowboys fan could have hoped for, but they’re going to struggle to put games away. Buccaneers -7.5
Tennessee Titans -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
These two teams are in similar situations, with talent and playoff aspirations but no clear path to true contention. Tennessee is asking Derrick Henry to carry an old-school workload for the third straight season, and Arizona needs to consider Kyler Murray’s workload and play style in light of last year’s second half swoon. The Titans might have the better offense as long as Henry doesn’t lose a step, but the Cardinals are a better all-around team and should keep the game close against last year’s 29th-ranked defense. Cardinals +3
Houston Texans +3.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I haven’t heard any reports of medical malpractice sidelining Tyrod Taylor before the Texans’ home opener, and that’s the best piece of news I can find about their team. Houston finished 24th in DVOA last year, and they generally lost talent before taking Deshaun Watson’s sexual misconduct cases into account. Still, I can’t quite figure out how the Jaguars ended up road favorites. They’re coming into the season with a rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a first-time NFL head coach in Urban Meyer, and they finished last season 31st in DVOA. I’m a much bigger believer in Lawrence than Meyer, but either way I can’t make sense of this line. Texans +3.5
Washington Football Team -1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
FitzMagic has found a new home! He’s on his ninth NFL team, but possibly the first one where his worst form still represents a clear upgrade over their alternatives from the season before. Washington finished dead last in offensive DVOA last year, and their brightest moments were tempered by concern for Alex Smith’s survival. Bringing in a veteran quarterback, even one as mercurial as Ryan Fitzpatrick, is a step in the right direction for a team whose defense should finish in the top 10. The 35 or 40 Chargers fans in Los Angeles are looking for Justin Herbert to continue his ascent to stardom while the defense improves with new head coach Brandon Staley and the healthy returns of Joey Bosa and Derwin James. I’m optimistic about Football Team’s chances in the NFC East, but the Chargers should pick up an early win here. Chargers +1
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are giving me some seriously negative vibes this year. They need a turnaround from a defense that fell from 4th in 2019 to 18th last year and an outstanding season from Dalvin Cook to minimize the pressure on Kirk Cousins. Cincinnati is only hoping to see healthy development from Joe Burrow in his second season, but they still have holes across their roster. They shouldn’t be able to hang with Minnesota, but I just don’t trust this version of the Vikings. If they don’t force a slew of mistakes from Joe Burrow or run the ball well enough to dominate the game start to finish, I think Cincinnati will make it close in the end. Bengals +3
Carolina Panthers -4.5 vs. New York Jets
The Panthers went from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Darnold, and the Jets went from Sam Darnold and Adam Gase to someone named Zach Wilson and Robert Saleh. Neither team was particularly good last year, but I like the personnel improvements in New York a lot more than the ones I’ve seen in Carolina. Going from Adam Gase to anyone is a huge improvement, and whatever Wilson gives them this year shouldn’t be considerably worse than Darnold was in 2020. I’m surprised to see the line this high, so we’ll take the points. New York Jets +4.5
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams finished last season with 4 wins, but the Falcons have more reason for optimism. Their point differential of -18 suggests they were extremely unlucky in close games, which feels right after watching them truly throw away games against the Cowboys, Bears, and Lions. The Eagles were -84 on the season, and they’re now starting Jalen Hurts full time. He could be a lot better than I expect, but for the time being I’m comfortable counting on new coaching and established talent in Atlanta to cover a normal home line against one of last year’s worst teams. Falcons -3.5
Buffalo Bills -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills were my favorite team to watch last season, even if it meant repenting for all the times I said you couldn’t teach Josh Allen accuracy. The Steelers were one of my least-favorite teams to watch, as their improbable 11-0 start fell apart against the Football Team and these Bills in Weeks 13 and 14. Pittsburgh is definitely due for some regression on defense, where it’s hard to replicate #1 finishes, and hoping Najee Harris fixes their offensive woes is irresponsibly optimistic. I also think it’s a stretch to expect Buffalo to pick up right where they left off last season offensively, and I think they’ll stumble a bit against Pittsburgh’s formidable defense in Week 1. I still think they’ll win, but this is a big line against a good team. Steelers +6.5
Detroit Lions +9 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I usually drool at the prospect of picking against Jimmy Garoppolo and a big line, but Detroit is not the team to capitalize on his tendency to forget about linebackers sitting in coverage on crossing routes. Kyle Shanahan is going to have a field day calling plays against last year’s last-place defense, and a healthier version of the San Francisco defense won’t have any trouble against Jared Goff in his new digs. 49ers -9
Indianapolis Colts +3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
It looks like Carson Wentz will be playing on Sunday, which is definitely better than seeing Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger, but almost certainly not as good as seeing Philip Rivers. He should be facing a mediocre Seattle defense, and I have enough faith in Frank Reich to think they’ll be competitive on that side of the ball. I don’t know what to expect from the Seattle offense, which fell off sharply in the second half of last season. They finally have a new offensive coordinator, but they’ll need more than last-minute Russell Wilson magic to cover as road favorites. I think it’s going to be close, as it usually is for Seattle, and if it’s close I want the points. Colts +3
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Back and forth and back and forth on this one. It wasn’t fun to pick the Chiefs as big favorites in the second half of last season, as they won 7 of their last 8 regular season games by a combined 26 points. The Browns have high expectations after hanging with Kansas City for most of their playoff meeting in January, but they’ll need to take another step forward this year to truly be contenders. Cleveland has the personnel to keep the ball away from the Chiefs and make things just hard enough on Mahomes to get a win, but Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have been particularly scary in the early weeks of their seasons together. Since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, Kansas City is 10-0 in September with a +98 point differential. If we see one slip from Cleveland, I think the Chiefs will be running away with this one. Chiefs -5.5
New York Giants +3 vs. Denver Broncos
Saquon Barkley may be back, but Daniel Jones is still the quarterback for the Giants. Denver addressed their weakest link by signing Teddy Bridgewater, who was considerably better than Drew Lock last season. He has plenty of weapons on the Denver offense, and the Denver defense is looking scarier than ever. None of this bodes well for a Giants team that finished 26th in offensive DVOA last year, and I don’t see things turning around dramatically with the same quarterback and offensive coordinator in place. I don’t see where New York has advantages here, so 3 points seems manageable. Broncos -3
New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
The Drew Brees era is officially over, and Jameis Winston is once again a starting quarterback in the NFL. I don’t have any concerns about Sean Payton adjusting to his new QB, as he has consistently adjusted his offense to fit his roster over the past fifteen years. I do have some concerns about Winston going against what looks to be a strong Packers defense in his first start in over a year. Jameis’s last NFL start ended in the most Jameis way possible, as an overtime pick-six gave the Falcons a win and Winston a stunning 33 TD/30 INT season. This game is being played in Florida, and New Orleans won’t have an easy time slowing down Aaron Rodgers with some of the talent they’ve lost on defense. Do you trust Winston to protect the ball when the Saints need him to make a play late in the game? Me neither. Packers -3.5
New England Patriots -3 vs. Miami Dolphins
I don’t have a lot of faith in Mac Jones in his first NFL start, but oddly enough he isn’t far behind his opponent in this one. Tua Tagovailoa started just nine games last year, and only threw 30+ passes in three of them. I would expect him to take a big step forward this season, but it’s going to be tough sledding in Week 1 against a Patriots defense returning a lot of players who opted out of last season. New England looks primed to return to the form they flashed in 2019, and if they do this will be a defensive battle. If that’s the case, I like New England’s superior offensive line and defense. Patriots -3
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Matt Stafford is better than Jared Goff. There isn’t much doubt about this, but I don’t know if everyone grasps the impact his presence could have in Sean McVay’s offense. Remember the Rams team that edged out the Chiefs 54-51 in 2018? They slowed down in large part because of Goff’s limitations, and I really think Stafford will open things back up in a scary way for the rest of the NFC. My Bears on the other side are starting Andy Dalton at quarterback and no longer have the defensive talent or coaching responsible for shutting down the Rams just three weeks after that shootout. It will not be pretty. Rams -7.5
Las Vegas Raiders +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens
We’ve seen a lot of bad headlines for the Ravens, with major injuries to their top two running backs and Marcus Peters just in the past couple of weeks. The Raiders have a healthy running back, but what else are we supposed to be excited for on their side? They finished 28th in defensive DVOA last season and 28th against the run. Losing two running backs is tough, but Baltimore still has Lamar Jackson and a scary defense going into Week 1. They’ve also won their last three season openers by a combined score of 144-19. Ravens -4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
