2021 NFL Picks Week 2: Chaos Reigns
Last Week: 7-9
This Week:
It was a confusing start to the 2021-22 season in more ways than one. First, confusion around our NFL Sunday Ticket service stuck us with Jags-Texans and Falcons-Eagles for the morning slate. Then, I assumed the Falcons knew the regular season was starting. I was clearly wrong based on their performance. Finally, with an 8-8 record on the line, the 4th quarter and overtime of Monday’s Ravens-Raiders tilt happened, and I’m still not sure I’ve mentally recovered. Look at this work of art:
Win Probability: Ravens @ Raiders https://t.co/m7SdAH3lT0 #NFLWinProb pic.twitter.com/bYRD8K5MbD
— Lee Sharpe (@LeeSharpeNFL) September 14, 2021
I can’t say I’m terribly confident heading into Week 2, but here’s hoping I can parse the false signals from the true.
Washington Football Team -4 vs. New York Giants
Bad start. I really expected Washington’s defense to keep Daniel Jones and the Giants under 20 points, and with Taylor Heinicke’s performance in the playoffs last year I thought their offense would be okay-to-good. I’ll be interested to see if this high-scoring outcome is a sign of things to come for either offense, or if their Week 1 opponents truly have top-tier defenses. Football Team -4
Miami Dolphins +3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has outright owned Miami for the past couple of years, winning their last four meetings by a combined 61 points. Most recently, the Bills dropped the hammer on the Dolphins’ playoff hopes in Week 17 last season despite having nothing at stake themselves. I’m sure Miami is feeling good about their Week 1 win over the Patriots, but they’re not going up against a rookie QB this week. Buffalo badly needs this game to get back on track for a top seed in the AFC, and I think they’ll make a big statement. Bills -3.5
Chicago Bears -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati picked up a nice win in Week 1 with timely help from their opponent. It was encouraging for Joe Burrow, but the Bengals still have a long way to go. I’m not optimistic about my Bears, but I saw enough against a scary Rams defense to make me believe Andy Dalton can get our offense out of the bottom tier. If he can do that and the defense can come out above average, they’ll be a class above the Bengals. I’m happy to take the standard home line here. Bears -3
Jacksonville Jaguars +6 vs. Denver Broncos
I was not optimistic about Urban Meyer as an NFL coach, and nothing about Week 1 changed my outlook. Jacksonville looked utterly lost. They were down 27-7 by halftime, they lost the turnover battle 3-0, and they committed 10 penalties. Things are going to get worse before they get better, as rookie Trevor Lawrence now has to face a stacked Broncos’ defense guided by Vic Fangio. With Teddy Bridgewater steadying the Denver offense, they should easily win by double digits. Broncos -6
Cleveland Browns -12.5 vs. Houston Texans
Here’s the other half of the AFC South battle we were blessed with on Sunday morning! The Texans looked more prepared than the Jaguars., but I’m not ready to dismiss the offseason concerns we all shared. Tyrod Taylor will provide a baseline of competence under center, but the rest of the Houston roster is still pretty rough. Cleveland boasts one of the deeper teams in the league, and they looked great for most of their opener against the Chiefs. They’ll have no trouble running the ball down the throat of a Houston defense that finished 29th against the run last year before losing J.J. Watt in free agency. If the Browns get to 30 points, they’ll need to hold the Texans to 17 in order to cover. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney should be up to the task. Browns -12.5
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Pittsburgh’s defense came through for me in a big way, but their offense looked even worse than I feared. Ben Roethlisberger finished with just 188 yards on 32 attempts (right between Jared Goff and Andy Dalton in YPA), and rookie Najee Harris managed 2.8 yards per carry. Lights out defense and big special teams plays can go a long way, but it’s hard to replicate week after week. For all of their flaws, the Las Vegas Raiders can score; they finished 2020 10th in points per game at 27.1 and only scored fewer than 20 points twice. I’m not sure Pittsburgh is reaching the high 20s without some defensive scores, so an extra six feels like a great head start. Raiders +6
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford looked good in his Rams’ debut, and I feel like he and Sean McVay are just getting started. Russell Wilson was wildly efficient against the Colts’ defense last week, and his new offensive coordinator is one of McVay’s understudies. Indianapolis is going to need some explosive plays from Carson Wentz if they want to keep pace, and we didn’t see enough from him last week to count on that. Rams -3.5
New York Jets +3.5 vs. New England Patriots
It’s possible, just possible that 20 preseason passes wasn’t enough to determine whether or not Zach Wilson was ready for the NFL. After what should have been a relatively soft opening against the Panthers, he gets to face Bill Belichick and the Patriots. New England has won their last ten games against the Jets, and only one of those came by less than 3.5 points. There’s just too big a gap between these teams to see the Jets coming out on top. Patriots -3.5
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. New Orleans Saints
I was a little stunned to see this line; after all, one team pounded the Packers while the other barely covered a touchdown against the Jets. Division rivals are tough, but New Orleans has won eight of their last nine games against Carolina and most recently beat them by 26 points. Did Sam Darnold show enough last week to make us think they’ll get off to a better start than Aaron Rodgers? I think not. Saints -3
Philadelphia Eagles +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I tried to escape the misery of Jaguars-Texans, but Eagles-Falcons was my only other choice. It’s possible that Philadelphia is really good, with Jalen Hurts developing alongside strong line play on both sides of the ball. Of course, Atlanta could also be really bad. They struggled to put away games last year, and Matt Ryan spent most of Sunday on the ground. Even if it’s a bit of both, San Francisco poses a much greater challenge on both sides of the ball. The Niners will definitely score more and more quickly than the Falcons, and the game script should force Hurts into more errors than we saw when he was coasting last week. 49ers -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I think we’ve covered enough about the Falcons, and now they travel to Tampa Bay. The spread is big, but Atlanta doesn’t have the offensive weaponry Dallas threw at the Bucs last week. Brady and Bruce Arians should easily eclipse 30 points again, and the Tampa defense will look much better against an opponent with more weaknesses to attack. This one will be over early. Buccaneers -13.5
Arizona Cardinals -4.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Does someone out there feel good about the Vikings after their loss to the Bengals? I understand the skepticism around the Cardinals long-term, with real injury concerns surrounding big stars like Kyler Murray, Chandler Jones, and J.J. Watt, but they’re all healthy right now and they just laid waste to what we think is a better version of Minnesota’s offense in Tennessee. Unless Mike Zimmer has some really wild wrinkles to throw at Kyler Murray, the Cards will win by at least a touchdown. Cardinals -4.5
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I’m really ready to support Justin Herbert and the Chargers all season, but something about this matchup just doesn’t feel right. Maybe it’s the significant home crowd disadvantage they’ll face with all the Cowboys fans in their own stadium, or maybe it’s just the shock I expect their defense will feel going from Washington to Dallas. Even with a great game from Herbert, there’s a lot of potential for a backdoor cover here. Cowboys +3
Seattle Seahawks -5 vs. Tennessee Titans
I’m sensing a lot of parallels between the Titans and Vikings this year, and that doesn’t bode well for either of them. Both teams are relying on running backs who have seen heavy usage in recent years, both have seen once-deep rosters diminished by age and salary cap casualties, and I think both are now on the downside of their competitive windows. There’s always a risk of Seattle playing one of their trademark bizarre games, but I think a home rout is in the cards. Seahawks -5
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sound the alarm! Patrick Mahomes is giving less than a field goal! Against a team he’s beaten three times in three years! I don’t think much more needs to be said, but Baltimore’s loss to Las Vegas raised a host of concerns as well. The Ravens’ offensive line isn’t as strong as it used to be, they still haven’t developed reliable receiving options, and their defense is dealing with injuries to key players like Marcus Peters. Don’t overthink it. Chiefs -2.5
Green Bay Packers -11 vs. Detroit Lions
Neither of these teams looked good in Week 1, but one has genuine championship hopes they need to revive. I really think the game just got away from Green Bay last week, where a stingy New Orleans defense was able to lean into pressure and start forcing mistakes after taking an early lead. Detroit doesn’t have the personnel to do the same, and Jared Goff probably can’t score 23 points in the last 20 minutes of every game. Packers -11
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
