2022 NFL Picks Week 11: Existential Crisis
We tied our historical low for wins in a week with just two in Week 10, giving us a long way to go to break even this year. We’re not the only ones floundering, though; Josh McDaniels is 2-7 in his second stint as an NFL head coach and just lost to a man who had never coached above the high school level, the Rams looked lost on offense before Cooper Kupp’s injury, and the Packers can only win if they’re inspired by their former coach pulling a bizarre stunt on his return to Lambeau Field. It’s a tall order, but it’s not too late to turn our season around. 17 of the 32 teams have at least a 1-in-3 chance of making the playoffs according to FiveThirtyEight, and if the New York Jets can make the playoffs behind Zach Wilson we can make it back to .500. To the picks!
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
Alright, I’m pretty sure I hate Thursday Night Football even more than Al Michaels at this point. I thought Green Bay could pull out a second consecutive home win behind some competent offensive play against a Tennessee team with a banged-up offense. Instead, Ryan Tannehill averaged 12.3 yards per attempt in his first game back in action and Green Bay failed to get anything going on the ground. Pretty much picking up where we left off. Packers -3
Baltimore Ravens -12 vs. Carolina Panthers
Lamar Jackson makes Baltimore one of my favorite teams to pick to cover a big spread. Since Lamar took over the starting job in 2019, the Ravens have won by more than 12 points 22 times. Unfortunately, they’ve only done it twice this season as injuries in their secondary and the lack of viable receiving threats have made it difficult for them to get and extend big leads. Carolina is the kind of team to lose by two touchdowns, but big spreads have been a tough bet this year. We’ll hope they can keep it within 10. Panthers +12
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Chicago Bears
Atlanta’s the better team in this matchup, but I don’t think they’re designed to take advantage of Chicago’s biggest weaknesses. The Falcons can’t get after the quarterback at all, which makes Chicago’s offensive line woes a bit more tolerable, and while Chicago’s defense has been bad across the board they are slightly better against the run than the pass. Marcus Mariota has been less than inspiring, and it might just take a few explosive plays from Justin Fields to make this game a toss-up. Let’s take the points. Bears +3
Buffalo Bills -9.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
Another big line for Buffalo, who hasn’t been taking care of business the way we’ve come to expect in recent weeks. They’re still the top-ranked team by DVOA, but Josh Allen’s puzzling turnovers have been keeping opponents in the game long enough to lose to the Jets and Vikings in back-to-back weeks. Cleveland’s defense isn’t in the same league as either of those teams, but they do have a solid offense and a very strong run game. I think Buffalo designed a lot of their team to beat the Chiefs specifically, and the Browns’ offense poses a much different challenge. I doubt they can win, but we’ll take the underdog of the big spread again here. Browns +9.5
New York Giants -3 vs. Detroit Lions
Two very similar teams by advanced metrics with much different on-the-field records. Some of it can be chalked up to injuries and bad luck, but I think most of the win-loss gap can be attributed to coaching. Brian Daboll has been doing a terrific job leaning into the things his team is good at and taking smart risks. Dan Campbell has been emphasizing toughness and biting kneecaps. I’m a little nervous with Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift healthy, but the Lions don’t seem like the kind of team to force regression on the Giants. Giants -3
New England Patriots -3 vs. New York Jets
We went over this one in detail a couple of weeks ago, but the Jets have a long history of losing to the Patriots. They’re only getting the standard road field goal here, and I don’t think Zach Wilson has learned how to avoid crippling mistakes against Bill Belichick in the last 22 days. They could absolutely get a lead and force Mac Jones into a tough spot, but I’m happier counting on the long track record of the Pats here. Patriots -3
Indianapolis Colts +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Colts made me eat my words last week by beating the Raiders, but I think it says more about the Raiders (and Matt Ryan being reinstated) than my take on Jeff Saturday or Indianapolis. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of the season and will be looking to get right in a big way. I think we’ll be covering the spread by the end of the first quarter and only seeing it get uglier from there. Eagles -7
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Two teams who sold their futures for the present, both profoundly feeling the effects. I don’t know if the Rams will have Matthew Stafford or John Wolford under center, but with Cooper Kupp injured I’m not sure it matters. The Saints can still play some good defense, and no one on the Rams’ offense is set to win one-on-one. Even if Aaron Donald has a big game and makes things hard for Andy Dalton, the Saints should be able to cover three at home. Saints -3
Houston Texans +3 vs. Washington Commanders
I’m not enthusiastic about taking Washington on the road, but picking them against the worst team in the league feels a little better. Houston hasn’t won a game since Week 5 and they haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 4. Washington’s defense is starting to look a little scary behind a formidable defensive line, allowing 21 points or fewer to the Packers, Vikings, and Eagles over the last four weeks. Unless they blow a few assignments here, they should pick up an easy road win. Commanders -3
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
This game is gross in so many ways, but Derek Carr seems to have a knack for beating the Broncos. The Raiders have won five straight in this divisional matchup, and their 32 points in Week 4 is the most Denver has given up this season by a full 12 points. The only thing that feels worse than taking Josh McDaniels at this point is taking Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett as favorites. Raiders +2.5
Minnesota Vikings +1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has been a frustrating team most of the season, and whatever injury Micah Parsons has will play a huge part in the way their season will play out. Picking against Mike McCarthy is one of my favorite pastimes, but picking against Kirk Cousins feels almost as good. Minnesota needed a couple of miracles to pull out their win over Buffalo last week, and I think they’re due for a fall. Dallas needs a win after choking away their game against the Packers, and if they can do anything to slow down Justin Jefferson or rattle Cousins, they’ll pick up a road win over an inferior opponent. Cowboys -1
Los Angeles Chargers +7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
There’s a lot of history to suggest the Chargers will keep things close with Kansas City, but I can’t keep counting on a team with so many offensive limitations outside of their outrageously talented quarterback. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will be looking to kick off their stretch run and move closer to clinching home field advantage in the AFC, and Austin Ekeler isn’t enough to carry the Chargers’ offense on their own. Look for Kadarious Toney to make a few big plays and Kansas City to make a statement. Chiefs -7
Pittsburgh Steelers +5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati’s Super Bowl hangover started with a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, and T.J. Watt is back to make things difficult once again. Pittsburgh is figuring out some ways to create yards and points with Kenny Pickett, and without Ja’Marr Chase I don’t know if the Bengals can stretch the Steelers’ defense to its breaking point. Five is just a little too much for the home team here. Steelers +5
Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Cardinals have given Kyle Shanahan a lot of problems in the past couple of years, and for some reason they looked just as good with Colt McCoy last week as they have with Kyler Murray recently. The talent gap is just a little too much for me to look past in this matchup. If Colt McCoy has to go up against the aggressive 49ers defense and their scary defensive line, San Francisco should be able to generate some turnovers. I’m expecting a real fireworks display from the huge collection of skill position players Shanahan now has at his disposal, and Arizona can’t keep up. 49ers -8
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
