2022 NFL Picks Week 12: Thanksgiving Betrayals
The Thanksgiving slate of games started so well! The Lions nearly upset the Bills and never made me sweat the 9.5 points they were getting, and Dallas rebounded from a shoddy first half to take a nice 15-point lead into the last three minutes of the game. And then, like my relationship with my stomach after going back for seconds (and thirds) of turkey, sampling every dessert available, and having a third cup of coffee, it all fell apart. Dallas drove into New York territory only for Brett Maher to miss a 46-yard field goal, and a Micah Parsons personal foul helped Daniel Jones score a touchdown in 1:13 of game time to blow the cover. Not to be outdone, Bill Belichick’s Patriots used special teams miscues and questionable personal fouls to make primetime Kirk Cousins look competent and lose by a full touchdown after scoring 26 points in the first three quarters. Thursday nights just don’t agree with us this year.
Detroit Lions +9.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Lions’ offense has been solid all year when Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift have been healthy, and, despite some strong peripheral numbers, Buffalo hasn’t been shutting down the best offenses they’ve faced. Since their Week 7 bye, Buffalo’s opponents have averaged 23.6 points per game. Once again, a couple of Josh Allen mistakes kept them from covering such a large spread in the opener. Lions +9.5
Dallas Cowboys -9.5 vs. New York Giants
I covered most of what went wrong here above, but things are looking pretty bleak for the Giants going forward. It looks like they’ve just sustained too many injuries to keep up with the best teams, even when they win the turnover battle and commit half as many penalties as their opponent. On the other side of the field, no matter how good the Cowboys look, don’t put too much faith in Mike McCarthy. Cowboys -9.5
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs. New England Patriots
Kirk Cousins played much better than I thought he would in primetime against a Belichick defense, but was I really wrong with this pick? New England gave up a kick return touchdown, committed a weak running-into-the-kicker penalty on what became the game-deciding drive, and still only lost by one touchdown. The Vikings still need to prove a lot for me to take them seriously as a Super Bowl contender. Patriots +2.5
Washington Commanders -4 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Washington has been looking good since moving to Taylor Heinecke, but the 4-1 record masks some underlying issues. It took four Philadelphia turnovers, including a game-ending multiple-lateral-fumble-return touchdown for Washington reach 30 points, and they’ve maxed out at 23 otherwise. They’re getting some big plays from Terry McLaurin, but they don’t have the drive-to-drive consistency they’d need to score quarter after quarter. Atlanta’s defense will give them plenty of opportunities to change that this week, but the Falcons’ offense usually keeps them competitive. If they can get anything going on the ground, they can limit Washington’s possessions and keep this game within a field goal like they did against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Chargers. Falcons +4
New York Jets -6 vs. Chicago Bears
Justin Fields has been event television since Chicago’s big win over the Patriots in Week 7, but it looks like all of the carries might be taking a toll. I’m not sure if he’ll be playing this week or not, but I do know the Jets have announced the benching of Zach Wilson. Whether it’s enough to carry them across the finish line and into the playoffs remains to be seen, but any burst of offensive energy should let New York’s defense get them a big win here, especially if Bears’ backup…*gulp*…Trevor Siemian is forced into action. Jets -6
Tennessee Titans +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Vrabel kicked Green Bay’s and my ass last week, and Ryan Tannehill looked like his best self, dropping over 300 passing yards on the Packers. Now the Titans are home underdogs, on extended rest, facing a Bengals team who just edged the Steelers last week. Everything makes me want to pick Tennessee…but Cincinnati’s offense has just been hard to stop for a while now. Including an odd no-show against the Browns in Week 8, Cincy is averaging 31.4 points per game in their last five contests. They have the highest weekly variance of any team in the league by DVOA, and I think their offense is strong enough to pick up a road win here against a team getting by on (extremely high-level) sleight of hand. Bengals -2
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Sam Darnold is getting the start here, because Matt Rhule is both incompetent and indecisive. Denver is a disaster, but they still have a really good defense and delusions of grandeur thanks to their quarterback investment. I don’t want to watch the game, but they should win by a field goal much like they did against the Texans and Jaguars. Broncos -2.5
Miami Dolphins -13 vs. Houston Texans
Miami’s offense has been great most of the season, and they’ve scored 31, 35, and 39 points in their last three games. Now they’re coming off a bye and facing the worst team in the league, but I think there’s a little look-ahead potential this week. Head coach Mike McDaniels will be visiting his former employer in San Francisco in Week 13, and little distractions like that can mean the difference between rolling to a huge win and pulling out a late, one-score victory over a clearly inferior opponent. Throw in a questionable defense and a little regression in Tua’s luck avoiding interceptions, and the line just feels a little too big. Texans +13
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore’s defense has looked downright scary since adding Roquan Smith, but their offense looks like they could desperately use a wide receiver (maybe even two!) I’ll regret this pick if Trevor Lawrence struggles in the red zone again, but I think this line should be more like a field goal. We’ll take the extra point for the home team. Jaguars +4
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If Tom Brady is going to push the Bucs to another late-season playoff run, now is the time. Cleveland hasn’t been able to get Nick Chubb going as effectively as they did early in the season when they got out to a 2-1 start, and their defense has only played one good game on the way to a 3-7 record today. I think Brady is going to shred the Browns’ defense, and we just haven’t seen Jacoby Brissett do anything to make us think they can play catch-up. Buccaneers -3.5
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I mentioned Houston is the worst team in the league, but the Raiders can’t be far behind. So why is Seattle only favored by 3.5 at home? Do we think the Las Vegas defense is going to be the unit to force regression on Geno Smith? I think Kenneth Walker III will have a field day, and Seattle’s young defense won’t have too much trouble against the league’s 15th-ranked offense. Seahawks -3.5
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Here we have a case of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cardinals have a promising young quarterback, but their franchise stewards chose to publicly shame him in contract negotiations. Their head coach is basically a Kyler Murray fanboy, so his behavior has largely gone unchecked. The Cards actually looked a little better with Colt McCoy for a week, but they’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games and sit second-to-last in DVOA. The Chargers have lost two tough games in a row against the 49ers and Chiefs, and they need to pick up a win here to salvage their playoff hopes. I think the promising young quarterback who doesn’t have mid-game tantrums will come out on top here, in a big way. Chargers -4.5
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
This line feels a little too big, but I have an image of Nick Bosa chasing Andy Dalton running through my mind on a loop. It almost is an image rather than a movie; Dalton doesn’t make much progress before Bosa eats him alive. The 49ers defense is starting to get healthy, and much like the prior matchup they’re facing a team whose playoff aspirations have all but disappeared at this point. I like them to get out to an early lead and pour it on from there just like they did against the Cardinals and Rams. 49ers -9.5
Kansas City Chiefs -14.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The line is too big! Even bigger than the Miami line, and facing the defending Super Bowl champs. Kansas City has won two games this season by more than 15 points, and one was against the Cardinals in Week 1. Of course…the other was on the road against the resurgent 49ers. The Rams, meanwhile, have lost three games by 15+ points this season and another two by 10-15 points. They barely had enough to keep an offense going before Cooper Kupp got injured, and 150-200 yards from Matthew Stafford, John Wolford, or whoever the hell Bryce Perkins is won’t be enough to keep things within 20 points of Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs -14.5
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Can I please just not pick this one? These teams have been killing me all season long, and this line feels like a trap. There’s no way Aaron Rodgers should be getting so many points in do-or-die primetime game, but there’s also no way the Eagles should fare worse than the Vikings, Bills, Jets, or Titans have against the Packers this year. Philadelphia has really been missing Dallas Goedert, but Jalen Hurts should be able to leverage A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith into a functional offense this week. The Packers could burn me the way they did against the Cowboys, but it feels like their season average of 18.4 points won’t be enough here. Eagles -6.5
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jeff Saturday will lose in embarrassing fashion. It’s going to happen, and maybe Mike Tomlin is the one to do it. TJ Watt against Matt Ryan is an even bigger mismatch than Bosa-Dalton, and I love getting points against this Colts team. Steelers +2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
