2022 NFL Picks Week 7: Way Down in the Hole
Maybe I don’t want to pick Thursday Night Football games correctly after all. A promising start took a real dive last week when we lost four of the last five picks. We’re off to another bad start this week, but maybe they key is starting with nowhere to go but up!
Arizona Cardinals -1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
Here we have a 2-4 team favored by 1.5 at home against another 2-4 team. DVOA doesn’t paint a considerably different picture, with the Saints’ advantages on offense and defense partially offset by Arizona’s edge in special teams. Deandre Hopkins is back this week for the Cardinals, which should boost a moribund offense far too reliant on Kyler Murray scrambles. I’m not sure it’s enough against a New Orleans team with a solid defense and healthy weapons in Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. Despite working with Jameis Winston and now Andy Dalton, the Saints have been held under 20 points only twice this season, against the Buccaneers and Panthers; the Cardinals are only averaging 19 points per game, and that includes two D/ST touchdowns. I think the wheels might be falling off in Arizona. Saints +1.5
Cincinnati Bengals -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Cincy pulled off a big win last week, coming back from a 9-point second half deficit to beat New Orleans in the Superdome and get to 3-3. I think their season is headed in the right direction, with a solid defense and an offense starting to find its rhythm again. Atlanta, meanwhile…has some problems for a 3-3 team. Their defense ranks 29th in DVOA and their quarterback has only thrown for 200+ yards twice this year. That said, Arthur Smith has them competitive every single week; their biggest loss came to the Buccaneers two weeks ago when a highly questionable roughing the passer penalty allowed Tampa Bay to run the clock out. When a team hangs around as consistently as the Falcons and gets to throw the league’s best rushing offense against Cincy’s mediocre rush defense, six points feels generous. Falcons +6
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Ravens beat up the Jets and Patriots this year, but have otherwise struggled to cash in on some of the highlight-reel plays Lamar Jackson provides. While Cleveland hasn’t looked great in recent weeks (three straight losses after starting 2-1), they have been tough for Baltimore in recent matchups. I don’t know if they’ll keep Lamar under 30, but Nick Chubb and their running game shouldn’t struggle to match what the Giants pulled off last week. Unless the Ravens magically get healthier, a 24th-ranked run defense against this Browns team means the spread should be lower. Browns +6.5
Tennessee Titans -2 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans have won five of their last six games against the Colts and only one of those wins came by less than 7 points. I can’t comprehend how the Colts are sitting at 3-2-1, but luck is responsible for a big chunk of it. They would have lost to the Chiefs if not for some rare, injury-related special teams woes, and they somehow beat the Jaguars last week despite allowing Trevor Lawrence to complete 90+ percent of his passes without turning the ball over. Tennessee just isn’t the kind of team to let you pull out a win without a schematic advantage. Titans -2
Dallas Cowboys -7 vs. Detroit Lions
I don’t know if the Cowboys will make Jared Goff look as bad as he did against the Patriots when we last saw him in action, but we can expect Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence to cause a lot of problems if Detroit falls behind in this one. They’ll have a hard time avoiding that with Dak Prescott returning to face the 32nd-ranked defense by DVOA. There’s a path for the Lions to stay ahead in this game, run the ball effectively, and limit the Cowboys’ ability to focus on rushing the passer, but I don’t think it’s a likely outcome with the way their defense has been playing. Cowboys -7
Washington Commanders +5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Nothing good has come from picking the Packers this year, but this isn’t the matchup to make me change my mind. Washington’s biggest strength, their pass rush, should be largely neutralized by Green Bay’s solid offensive line and Aaron Rodgers’ pocket management. Green Bay’s defense has been bad, but Carson Wentz and the league’s 29th-ranked rushing offense presents a different problem than the Giants (11th), Jets (13th), and Vikings (9th). It’s a challenge this Packers defense is much better suited to face. Packers -5
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New York Giants
The Jags felt like the hot new team when they moved to 2-1 with a big win over the Chargers in Week 3, but three straight losses to the Eagles, Texans, and Colts have taken the wind out of those sails. The Giants have assumed the mantle with a 5-1 start including wins over the Packers and Ravens. Statistically, Jacksonville looks like the superior team with a better offense and defense through six games, while the Giants have been getting by with superior coaching and a strong run game. I’m impressed by what Brian Daboll has done, but talent will shine through at some point, and I like Trevor Lawrence at home against Daniel Jones. Jaguars -3
Carolina Panthers +10.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’ve seen a terrible version of the Buccaneers over the past few weeks, with a once-formidable defense flailing about much like their offense in games against the Chiefs, Falcons, and Steelers. Carolina has been terrible all year long; they somehow picked up a win over the Saints in Week 3, but have since been outscored by 46 points in three games. Add in Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay career against the Panthers (four straight wins by at least 14 points) and I’m not too scared of this big line. Buccaneers -10.5
Las Vegas Raiders -7 vs. Houston Texans
Neither of these teams have been playing well, but only one should be disappointed by it. Any sane NFL fan expected a rebuilding year in Houston, but the Raiders added Davante Adams after making it to the playoffs last season. Las Vegas has been a little unlucky to start 1-4, but they’ve failed to generate any pass rush or establish an offensive rhythm with Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow. The Texans somehow carry a better record into this game by virtue of their Week 1 tie against the Colts, and they’ll be coming into this game from a bye week. I wouldn’t say I’m optimistic about anything Texans-related, but they can definitely lose by a touchdown or less to this mediocre Raiders team. Texans +7
Denver Broncos -3 vs. New York Jets
Alright, the Jets have really been sticking it to me since I correctly picked the Bengals against them back in Week 3. Denver has been sticking it to anyone who enjoys football all season long, riding (see what I did there?) offseason acquisition Russell Wilson to the 27th-ranked offense by DVOA. We’ve seen Zach Wilson play this Broncos defense, though, and it wasn’t pretty; 160 yards passing and two interceptions on 35 attempts in a 26-0 loss in Week 3 last year. Russ may not cook, but Denver should smother the Jets at home and win comfortably. Broncos -3
San Francisco 49ers +2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City lost a tough one to the Bills last week, but it’s starting to feel like every KC-Buffalo matchup for the next five years will be a wildly exciting coin flip. The Niners would provide a fascinating challenge to the Chiefs in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV if their loaded defense was coming into this game healthy, but they’ve endured enough injuries to give up 28 points to the Falcons. They might have enough offensive playmakers to keep up for two or three quarters, but Kansas City by a field goal feels very reasonable. Chiefs -2
Los Angeles Chargers -7 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I was going back and forth on this one until I remembered the Chargers haven’t enjoyed a home field advantage since leaving San Diego. The Geno Smith experience continues to be a strange one, and strange should be good enough against Justin Herbert and the least-exciting-offense-to-feature-a-wildly-talented-quarterback I’ve ever seen. The Chargers have one win by more than a touchdown this season, a 10-point win over the Texans in Week 4. Last season they managed only four; they just aren’t a team who steps on opponents’ throats. I like Seattle’s odds of keeping things close. Seahawks +7
Miami Dolphins -7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ve just seen too much to let myself believe in Mitchell Trubisky. I don’t have a good explanation for how he came off the bench to lead the Steelers to a win over the Buccaneers last week, but even the return of Kenny Pickett shouldn’t be enough to offset a healthy Tua back in the huddle for Miami. Before he left Miami’s Week 4 loss to the Bengals, the Dolphins were 3-0 against the Patriots, Ravens, and Bills. There’s some luck involved there, but throwing to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill against this porous Steelers defense should be easier than any of those three games. I don’t like the way Miami has handled any off-field business, but I like them by a touchdown at home. Dolphins -7
New England Patriots -7.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones might just be managing games, but you don’t need much more than that to beat the Bears this season. Chicago is 2-4, and they haven’t looked genuinely good in any of those six games. Bill Belichick and the New England defense are coming off fantastic showings against the Lions and Browns, and both of those teams have more weapons and better offensive schemes than Chicago. I’ll be a little shocked if the Bears can keep it within 10. Patriots -7.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
