2023 NFL Picks Week 9: There's No Place Like Home
Outside of academia, I like to think I don’t make many excuses. (In school? I'm John Belushi on my knees in front of Carrie Fisher in Blues Brothers). I complain about the occasional bad beat, but I won't blame them for a whole season's record because that luck tends to even out. Of course, this is my first season of picks as a dad…and I'm beginning to think a baby with a stomach bug makes things more difficult. We'll do our best to power through because our massive reader base relies on these picks, but don't be surprised if some of the below ramblings are even crazier than usual.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
Will Levis had some nice numbers in his debut, but I think it was more indicative of a great game plan than a Pro Bowl future for the rookie QB. The Titans were clearly determined to take advantage of Levis's cannon arm and the skills DeAndre Hopkins still has, and four big touchdowns later they came away with a win. Who knew matching your play-calling to your personnel could be so effective? Pittsburgh presents a much stiffer test on defense than Atlanta did, but they're dealing with a quarterback problem of their own: Mitchell Trubisky is their backup and Kenny Pickett left last week's game with a rib injury. Pickett is expected to start, but with two teams who like to play ugly and zero trustworthy quarterbacks, I like starting the game 3-0. Titans +3
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
A potential barnburner in Germany on Sunday morning! The Chiefs haven't looked great on offense, but Patrick Mahomes is still his incredible self when he isn't battling the flu or throwing to Skyy “Butterfingers” Moore; they'll be able to move the ball on Miami's middling defense. The Dolphins keep racking up points even when games seem close in the first half, but Kansas City has a very good defense this season and they might be able to pull some tricks from what Buffalo did in Week 4. When a game this fun is too close to call, I'll just pick Mahomes to win by a field goal regardless of the opponent. Chiefs -2.5
New Orleans Saints -7 vs. Chicago Bears
Is Tyson Bagent still starting for the Chicago Bears? If so, and his opponent isn't in the middle of a meltdown that will soon claim the jobs of their coach and GM, I like the opponent. A functional Saints squad on both sides of the ball playing at home just makes it that much easier. Saints -7
Cleveland Browns -7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I really wish this line had stayed at 7 after news broke about the Cardinals moving Josh Dobbs to Minnesota and clearing a path for Kyler Murray's re-...wait, what? The Cards are starting the Tunester? I guess teams don't get to choose when the trade deadline comes, but even I love a Jim Schwartz defense at home against Clayton Tune. The Cards haven't been the same since James Conner went down, and it's hard to see them regaining their footing here. A defensive TD and some easy runs from Cleveland against one of the league's worst run defenses should make this number doable. Browns -7.5
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta has won just one game by four points all year, but this is a special circumstance. The Vikings acquired Josh Dobbs at the trade deadline, but he won't be ready to fill in for Kirk Cousins right away, which means Jaren Hall is getting the start against Atlanta. Add in the news that Taylor Heinecke is starting in place of Desmond Ridder, and I think we might finally see the Falcons score 30 points again, for the first time since last year. Falcons -3.5
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Okay, Jordan Love has been bad, but you're telling me Green Bay is only favored by 3, at home, against Brett Rypien? The Packers have owned the Rams in recent years, winning their three matchups since 2021 by a combined score of 92-58. For some reason it just isn't a good matchup for Sean McVay and company, and I don't know if enough has changed to tilt the odds this far. Packers -3
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I like what we've seen from Baltimore, but Seattle is still a pretty strong team. This line seems a little high for a dinged up secondary facing D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. There's a world where Geno Smith turns the ball over multiple times and Lamar romps to another resounding victory, but I have a feeling the Ravens look a little more mortal this week. And yes, I'm still mad at them for putting Nelson Agholor on the hands team and blowing the cover last week. Seahawks +5.5
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Houston needs to bounce back in a big way this week after losing to a desperate Panthers team. Tampa Bay could provide a great opportunity to do so, as they can't run the ball and rely on absurd 4th down conversion luck and big plays from Mike Evans to keep up with top opponents. I think Houston will have the right game plan to limit Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud will do enough to win at home. Texans -2.5
New England Patriots -3 vs. Washington Commanders
Gross. Both teams are in dark places, but only one seems to realize it, with the Commanders trading away two of their best defensive lineman for draft capital at the deadline. Of course, standing pat like the Patriots is better than whatever the hell my Bears were thinking, but that isn't part of the line here. New England needs a win badly, Washington's now-depleted defense isn't good enough to bring out bad Mac Jones for a whole game, and the away team sent a clear message that they're starting a rebuild. I like New England at home. Patriots -3
Carolina Panthers +2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I'm pretty sure the Panthers aren't good even if they've looked competent at home, but what about the Colts? Indianapolis is 3-5, but they've scored at least 20 points in every game despite playing teams like the Browns, Saints, Ravens, and Jaguars. I'm not sure Carolina's home field advantage can slow Indy down THAT much, and Bryce Young struggled to get to 15 points last week coming off a bye. I think the Colts have a definite edge and don't mind asking for a three point win. Colts -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This should be a great game, and the line is pretty fair. Last year they split the series, but both teams won against the opponent's backup. I actually like how the Dallas defense matches up against Philadelphia, and Dak Prescott is doing enough right now to take advantage of a regressing Eagles' defense. Is it enough to win on the road? Not sure, but I'm okay taking the full three. Cowboys +3
Las Vegas Raiders -2 vs. New York Giants
Josh McDaniels is unemployed…again! I was planning to take the Giants with Daniel Jones back in action and a miserable (in every sense of the word) Raiders team at home. With McDaniels gone, though, I can’t resist the opportunity to pounce on the interim coach bump. Is Antonio Pierce qualified to be an NFL head coach? I have no idea! Jeff Saturday certainly wasn’t last year, but he burned me a couple of times before the world normalized. I do know that the new coach should produce a more motivated Las Vegas team and an offensive gameplan that includes feeding All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams. It doesn’t take much more to beat the Giants. Raiders -2
Cincinnati Bengals -2 vs. Buffalo Bills
I think Cincinnati was a bad matchup for Buffalo even before the Bills started losing their best defensive players. Joe Burrow looked way better after the Bengals' bye week, and we know Lou Anarumo can limit even the best offenses. Getting less than a field goal with Cincy at home feels like a lucky break. Bengals -2
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
They can't keep getting away with this! How did the Giants let the Jets force overtime and then commit defensive pass interference on a wildly underthrown deep ball in the extra period? Ugh, truly ridiculous. Of course, the Chargers are among the best ever at ridiculous losses, but I really like their situation here. They never play with a home field advantage anyway, their offense can score 30 against even the best teams, and they get to play against the aforementioned Zach Wilson! Give me the road favorites. Chargers -2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
