2023 NFL Picks Week 8: To Overreact, or Not React?
Wowza, that was a beating. Even accounting for some bad luck (Cleveland correctly going for two after taking the lead and not converting, Green Bay scoring just 17 against the Broncos, whatever Tampa Bay-Atlanta was) doesn’t wash away the stink of being on the very, very wrong sides of Lions-Ravens, Bills-Patriots, and 49ers-Vikings. So what should we do? Do we double down on how we view these teams for the season to-date, or react to troubling trends in places like San Francisco and Arizona? The answer, of course, is obsess over stats and storylines even more than usual and really become insufferable to anyone attempting non-NFL conversation. Perfect!
Buffalo Bills -8.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here was my thinking: the Bills were playing their first normal home game (vs. Jacksonville was in London, vs. the Giants was right after returning) since their Week 4 drubbing of Miami, Tampa Bay’s offense looks inept, and the Bucs can’t take advantage of Buffalo’s biggest weakness, defending the run. It looked great! The Bills were up 24-10 and had Baker Mayfield facing 4th and 10…and got called for Illegal Contact. Then they sacked him on 4th and 8…but committed an inadvertent Facemask during the tackle. Then they managed to get hit on the helmet with his 4th and 10 pass from the 24-yard line…and it was caught by Mike Evans in the end zone. What a way to start the week. Bills -8.5
Tennessee Titans +1 vs. Atlanta Falcons
This line has moved to Titans +2.5, with Tennessee suggesting they’ll alternate between Malik Willis and Will Levis if Ryan Tannehill can’t go on Sunday. That’s a bad start for any team, and the Titans didn’t look great with their regular QB available. But they’re at home, coming off a bye, and facing their former Offensive Coordinator whose Falcons have only scored 20 points twice all year. I’m going to trust Vrabel to ugly things up and come away with a win. Titans +1
Carolina Panthers +3 vs. Houston Texans
Carolina is coming off a bye and they’ve shifted playcalling duties to their Offensive Coordinator after an 0-6 start. Houston is ALSO coming off a bye, and C.J. Stroud has put up good numbers against quality defenses in New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. The Panthers’ defense ranks 30th overall and 32nd against the run, so they’ll need a big day from Bryce Young to keep things close. I don’t think he’s that guy yet. Texans -3
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
If this game is 15-7 Jaguars to start the fourth quarter, watch out! The Steelers lulled another victim to sleep last week, trailing the Rams 17-10 and looking pretty miserable in the process. Then the fourth quarter arrived and Kenny Pickett led consecutive touchdown drives averaging 10.5 yards per play and Pittsburgh came away with a 24-17 road win. As for Jacksonville, I think their offense is starting to click a little more and their defense is shockingly 4th in DVOA, 6th against both the run and the pass. I won’t be shocked if the Steelers make me feel silly in another nailbiter, but I also feel like they can’t keep getting away with this. Jaguars -2.5
Green Bay Packers -2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
We talked about it on the podcast this week, but in case you missed it, we think the Packers just aren’t good. Which is fun, for a change! Their defense ranks 27th, which is very predictable for a Joe Barry unit, and after scoring 38 against the Bears in Week 1 they’ve managed 24, 17, 20, 13, and 17 points. Minnesota’s defense isn’t terrifying, but they rank a respectable 15th and I have to imagine Brian Flores is licking his chops to send some blitzes at Jordan Love and a depleted Green Bay offensive line. As for Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense, it feels like a tightrope walk, but I don’t think the Packers can knock them off. Vikings +2
Indianapolis Colts +1 vs. New Orleans Saints
Both teams are 3-4, but the difference in aesthetics is considerable. Indianapolis has looked lively in close losses to the Browns and Rams, while the Saints have mostly looked like every team led by Derek Carr in recent memory. Aside from a 34-0 throttling of New England in Week 5 where the New Orleans offense managed just 304 yards, the Saints are 2-4 with a -28 point differential. The numbers are similar for the Colts, but I give them a lot more credit for beating the Ravens and losing to quality teams like the Jaguars and Rams despite uncertainty at QB in most of their games. That edge in degree of difficulty has me taking Indy and the extra point at home. Colts +1
Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have been occasionally abysmal, but their two huge losses came against teams with top-7 defenses in the Cowboys and Saints. Miami at 24th doesn’t fit that bill, and it sounds like Tyreek Hill is dealing with an injury. The Dolphins have enough talent to make things work on offense anyway, but all of those little injuries stack up and make me nervous for a team who only beat the Pats by 7 back in Week 2. If New England can do anything on the ground and get some pressure on Tua, I think we’ll have a one-score game. Patriots +9.5
New York Giants +3 vs. New York Jets
In the words of Jay Cutler, “DON’T CAAAAARE.” Ugh, what a terrible matchup. Should we feel good about the Giants, who look somewhat functional on offense with Saquon Barkley back and Tyrod Taylor in for Daniel Jones? They’ve still scored just 14 points in back-to-back weeks against the Bills (sure, okay) and Commanders (oof.). Of course, the Jets are coming off wins against the Broncos (sure, okay) and Eagles (damnit) and a bye week to boot, so they’re primed to go on a run and put themselves in playoff position, right? Hahaha…no. Give me the points against Zach Wilson. Giants +3
Washington Commanders +6.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Lot of room for divisional nonsense in this one, with the Commanders covering this size spread in five of their last seven against the Eagles. Something about the way Philly played against Miami last weekend makes me think they’re turning a corner, though. Their defense looked locked in, and their pass rush should have a lot of fun against Sam Howell, who is now on pace to take the most sacks in a single season in NFL history…by a lot. If Jalen Hurts can just take a page from Howell’s book and take a sack instead of throwing passes right at defenders, the Eagles will cover two touchdowns without much trouble. Eagles -6.5
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
I went back and forth a couple times here, but I’m starting to think the early-season magic is running out for the Rams. Since scoring 30 against the Seahawks in Week 1 and 23 against the 49ers in Week 2, they’re averaging just 19.2 points per game. The Dallas defense is better than any unit they’ve faced so far, and the Cowboys can hopefully score some points after a bye week to recover. One touchdown isn’t asking too much, is it Mr. McCarthy? Cowboys -6.5
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
The QB situation in Cleveland gets stranger each week, which is impressive given the origins of the problem. Whoever ends up taking snaps will have to keep up with the league’s 10th-ranked offense in a very good home environment. Maybe Jim Schwartz gets things turned around for the trip out west and the Browns look dominant on that side of the ball again, but I prefer the odds of an opportunistic Seahawks’ defense taking advantage of the mistakes P.J. Walker makes. Seahawks -3.5
San Francisco 49ers -5.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This line has dropped with news that Brock Purdy will likely be unavailable, but I still like the Bengals at +3.5. Cincy is coming off a bye at 3-3 and needs to go on a run now if they’re going to be a serious playoff contender. Burrow’s calf should look as good as we’ve seen it since his injury, and I have high hopes for Ja’Marr Chase in this game after watching Kirk Cousins and Jordan Addison dice up the San Francisco defense on Monday night. Give me the points! Bengals +5.5
Denver Broncos +8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If the Broncos want to look better than the Chargers against the kings of the AFC West, they can start by covering Travis Kelce. Of course, that likely won’t be enough, because the Chiefs’ 5th-ranked defense held Denver to just 8 points two weeks ago and the Broncos still have a historically bad defense. Kansas City got me in Week 6, winning by 11 against a 10.5 spread. I don’t see why Denver should be better this time around. Chiefs -8
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Cardinals have looked rough since their surprisingly plucky 1-2 start, losing four straight games by double digits, and the Ravens are coming to town as the new leader in DVOA after a convincing win over the Lions. The bigger problem for Arizona might be the absence of James Conner; since he went out, their offense hasn’t been able to steadily run the ball, and the rest of the unit has fallen apart from there. Baltimore will disappoint us and look disjointed again soon, but it won’t be this week. Ravens -9.5
Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 vs. Chicago Bears
On the one hand, a 2-5 Chargers team with no real home team advantage, favored by more than a touchdown. On the other, Tyson Bagent. The former Harlon Hill award winner “led” the Bears to a big win over the Raiders last week, but the real takeaway from that game is that Josh McDaniels should be fired. Starting a 38-year old Brian Hoyer was a wackadoo decision on its own, but the Raiders’ defense seemed unprepared for what Chicago threw at it. You might have thought the Bears, forced to start their undrafted, D-2 quarterback just 7 weeks into his first season would concentrate on the ground game and limit what they asked of Bagent…and you would be 100% correct. Chicago ran the ball 36 times for 169 yards (4.7 YPC) and Bagent averaged 2.1 air yards per attempt. Somehow they scored 30 points with that approach, and while the Chargers’ defense is bad, I have to imagine they’ll be ready to make the Bears attempt a deep pass. On the other side of the ball? Justin Herbert should be ready to let loose after facing the Cowboys and Chiefs in consecutive weeks. Chargers -8.5
Detroit Lions -7.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Consider everything I said about the Raiders above, sprinkle in some indifference to whether it’s Jimmy G or Aidan O’Connell is starting for Las Vegas this week, and take the better team at home. Detroit had a bad game against Baltimore that snowballed into a blowout, but they’re still one of the better teams in the league. The Raiders decidedly are not, and they’ll be a juicy target for a highly motivated Lions team. Lions -7.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
