2024 NFL Picks Week 12: Put Some Respect on the Lions!
What a week! Not only did the biggest games deliver with some exciting action, but we managed to go 10-4 despite eating a truly crushing loss in Bears-Packers, where we tried to distance ourselves emotionally and financially. It was a nearly flawless weekend of football-watching, but just as the Chiefs learned, all good things come to an end. This week's slate has just four games with a spread of a field goal or less, and we don't even get the first of those games until the Sunday afternoon slate. Let's see what we can do with some more lopsided matchups!
Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
It's no secret that I don't believe in the Browns, whether Deshaun Watson or James Winston is under center. But this line just doesn't feel right. The Steelers picked up a huge win over the Ravens last week on the strength of six field goals, but that isn't enough to get the job done week in and week out. I think they're primed for a letdown here, so I love getting the half point on top of the field goal in a short week divisional matchup. Browns +3.5
Washington Commanders -10 vs. Dallas Cowboys
My first instinct was to take the Cowboys here in a divisional matchup against a rookie quarterback, but I changed my mind after a little digging. The Cowboys looked utterly lifeless in the second half of their loss to the Texans, and that was a Monday night game; they'll be on a short week while Washington is coming off a tough loss on Thursday Night Football. That means the Commanders have advantages at venue, rest, and quarterback, and I would throw coach and motivation in there as well. The Cowboys really rubbed it in against Washington last year, winning their two matchups by a combined 63 points. Washington will be out for revenge along with an important win in the playoffs chase. Commanders -10
Indianapolis Colts +7.5 vs Detroit Lions
Did we decide the Colts are good because they beat the Jets? Detroit just thrashed the Jaguars for their fifth double-digit win of the season, and now they’re taking a short trip within the midwest to another dome to take on the Colts, who are ranked 21st in DVOA. So why is this number so reasonable? The Lions are the best team in the NFL right now and the public is having a hard time coming to grips with it. I’m not jumping off this train until someone gets hurt or exposes a major weakness in their team, and I definitely don’t think Anthony Richardson is the one to do it. Lions -7.5
Carolina Panthers +11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I can’t believe I’m doing this. I don’t think the Panthers have truly solved any of their long-term issues as a franchise, but they’ve been playing with a bit more energy and purpose in their last couple of games. If they’ve graduated from dumpster fire to trash heap, they need to be evaluated a bit differently than they were earlier this year. They’re at home, coming off a bye, and this line just feels too big against a Chiefs’ team that is probably hoping to just grab a win and move on with their season. It won’t be fun to watch, but I think they can keep the loss to single digits. Panthers +11
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs Minnesota Vikings
This is the one I’ve been waiting for. Look, I know the Bears have been rough, and I know one week of mildly competent play and nearly cracking 20 points against the Packers isn’t the strongest evidence of a turnaround. Taking this Chicago offense against Minnesota’s top-ranked defense feels gross. But on the other side of the ball we have a clearly rattled Sam Darnold and a weak Vikings’ run game facing a good Bears’ defense. With Chicago at home and getting more than a field goal, I’m putting my faith in Caleb Williams once again. What could go wrong? Bears +3.5
Miami Dolphins -7.5 vs. New England Patriots
Miami’s offense has looked good since Tua returned, but their defense is a different story. Drake Maye has been solid in his first few starts, and he makes the New England offense just unpredictable enough to keep games exciting. I think the Rams and Dolphins are pretty similar teams, and the Rams barely covered a smaller line than this against the Pats last week. Miami should win, but not by more than a touchdown. Patriots +7.5
Houston Texans -8.5 vs Tennessee Titans
I was happy to take the Texans against Cooper Rush and the shell of the Cowboys last week, but Dallas somehow kept things close until a very strange double-fumble play in the second half. Now Houston is favored by more than a touchdown against a Tennessee team with a pretty good defense. There’s no doubt the Texans should win, but a blowout against a division rival seems like a reach until their offense starts clicking again. Titans +8.5
New York Giants +5.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is this line lower or higher because Tommy DeVito is starting in place of Daniel Jones? I’m not going to argue that he’s considerably worse, but he’s definitely not any better. Both teams are coming off a bye, and Tampa has been better in every phase of the game. I expect Todd Bowles to put DeVito in the torture chamber and come away with a win by a touchdown. Buccaneers -5.5
Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 vs Denver Broncos
I think the Broncos are outperforming their talent level on offense, but there were reasons to believe their defense would be good coming into the season. They have a ways to go until I’ll consider their offense a threat in the playoffs, but the Raiders aren’t a team designed to expose any flaws. Las Vegas is 2-8 on the season and six of their eight losses have come by double digits. They can definitely lose by a touchdown here. Broncos -5.5
Seattle Seahawks -1 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I’m kind of excited to see the Cardinals getting points here! Seattle’s win over the 49ers was big for their playoff hopes, but San Francisco is stuck in a year from hell and it still came down to the wire. The Cardinals are playing their best ball of the season and now they’re coming off a bye week to face Seattle’s mediocre defense. I’m counting on Kyler until Arizona slips up again. Cardinals +1
Green Bay Packers -1.5 vs San Francisco 49ers
The Packers scare me in a lot of ways, but the 49ers need this game to keep their season alive. Green Bay was lucky to pull out a win over the Bears last week, and I’m starting to think I was right to doubt Jordan Love’s place in the top QB tiers. San Francisco is having a tough year, but this is their chance to turn the season around and make a playoff push, and I don’t want to count Kyle Shanahan out yet. 49ers +1.5
Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Eventually I’ll have to acknowledge the Eagles’ turnaround and the way their defense is playing under former Chicago hero Vic Fangio, but I’m still not ready. Matthew Stafford is going to make some big plays as long as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both healthy, and the Rams’ defense is playing well against the run. If they can force Jalen Hurts to beat them, I think we’ll get a close game, and in that case I want the points. Rams +3
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The resurrection of Justin Herbert has been a lot of fun to watch, but now the Chargers have to take on a pissed off Ravens team with the league’s best offense by DVOA. The Bengals took advantage of their injury-weakened defense last week, and I don’t think the Chargers have the offensive weapons they need to keep up with the Ravens. Ravens -2.5
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
