2024 NFL Picks Week 11: More Data, Less Vibes
The afternoon slate was our saving grace last week, as we came out on the right side of three blowouts in Chargers-Titans, Eagles-Cowboys, and Cardinals-Jets. We have a handful of exciting matchups this week, highlighted by Chiefs-Bills, and we finally have a large enough sample size to rely more heavily on data and less on vibes. Let’s see if our estimation of these teams’ trajectories is accurate for Week 11!
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels makes it hard to rely on matchup history between these division rivals; Philly has won 11 of the last 14 meetings, but obviously this year’s Washington team is a much different beast. These teams are about even in DVOA, and while the Eagles are a hotter topic with their 5-game win streak, I think we’re seeing a bit of overvaluation here. Vic Fangio has the Philadelphia defense playing much better of late, but their last five opponents have been the Browns, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, and Cowboys. Only the Bengals represent a real challenge, and if the Commanders can keep their 2nd-ranked offense rolling, I don’t trust Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense to blow them out. Hopefully this is the first installment in a fun, renewed rivalry in the NFC East. Commanders +3.5
New Orleans Saints -1 vs. Cleveland Browns
I know the Saints haven’t been playing well lately, but this line suggests the Browns are a better team. We have two games to look at in evaluating the Jameis Winston Browns, and it’s very Jameis; one three-touchdown, zero-interception win over the Ravens and a one-touchdown, three-interception loss to the Chargers. Both teams traded away talent at the trade deadline, and it’s difficult to predict how long the new-coach bump for the Saints might last. Just like the line suggests, this is a toss-up, and I’m going to take the home team to win. Saints -1
New York Jets -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson is back under center for the Colts this week and I don’t think it moved the line at all. It takes away some of their passing ceiling but should make Indy’s ground game a little more dangerous. The Jets are coming off what I think is their most embarrassing performance of the year, and it looks like Davante Adams and some coach shuffling wasn’t enough to fix all of their issues. I can’t figure out why Aaron Rodgers is favored by more than a field goal against anyone at this point, and it gets even more puzzling when you consider the matchup of Indy’s 9th-ranked rushing offense against the Jets’ 27th-ranked rushing defense. Colts +4
Chicago Bears +6 vs. Green Bay Packers
I’d love to have confidence in the Caleb Williams Bears here, but I can’t find any evidence for it. Is the new interim Offensive Coordinator going to fix everything wrong with Chicago’s offense? He’ll need to with this spread, because Matt LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears in his career and Green Bay has averaged 27 points per game in his five games in Chicago. The Bears’ defense can’t stop the run, and the Packers will have no qualms running all day long and salting away a big lead late. This isn’t the year we’re reversing any trends. Packers -6
Detroit Lions -13 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
It sounds like Mac Jones is starting for the Jaguars again, and that’s enough for me to count on the Lions to win big at home. Detroit is 1st in DVOA while Jacksonville is 23rd; the Jaguars’ defense is ranked 31st, and you have to believe their offense will underperform their current 16th-place ranking with Jones in for Trevor Lawrence. The Lions are on a roll, and this version of Jacksonville doesn’t even qualify as a speed bump. Lions -13
Tennessee Titans +6 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Sam Darnold reckoning is underway, but it hasn’t manifested itself in losses yet because Brian Flores is coordinating the league’s top-ranked defense by DVOA. Minnesota survived three Darnold interceptions last week and nearly covered against the aforementioned Jaguars, but eventually that luck is going to run out. I just don’t think it’s going to be this week. Tennessee has the league’s worst special teams by an incredible margin, and their defense is better against the run than the pass. All Minnesota needs is a couple big plays to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and they’ll be able to run away with this one unless Will Levis’ competent showing in a 10-point loss to the Chargers last week was a real sign of development. Vikings -6
Miami Dolphins -7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Tua version of the Dolphins is so much better than their alternatives that it really makes you wonder what Miami was doing with its quarterback room coming into the season. Las Vegas has already lost six games by at least 7 points this season, and I don’t think their bye week is going to be a difference-maker. Tua should enjoy playing the worst defense he’s faced all year, and I don’t see how the Raiders can keep up. This might be the last week for Antonio Pierce. Dolphins -7
New England Patriots +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
This just feels like an overreaction to the games these teams played in Week 10. The Rams only scored 15 points in their loss to the Dolphins, but they played pretty well on both sides of the ball. The Patriots picked up a nice win over the Bears, but it seemed clear when I was watching the game that it was more dysfunction from Chicago than defensive dominance from New England. The Rams are a professional unit and their defense has looked good lately, so they should win by a touchdown even in New England. Rams -4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Unlike the Bears-Packers rivalry above, Steelers-Ravens has given us the sort of unpredictability we love to pretend all divisional matchups have. Pittsburgh has actually won seven of their last eight games against the Ravens, and while that includes some games without Lamar Jackson, it’s still eye-opening. According to an article on The Ringer, the underdog of 3+ points in this matchup in the Harbaugh-Tomlin era is 18-2-3 against the spread. That’s ridiculous! For this game the Ravens feel like the better team, but I can’t trust this version of them with the way they keep giving up points in the second half. A Ravens’ blowout is more likely than a Steelers’ one, but I can’t pass up Pittsburgh and a full field goal at home in a rivalry like this. Steelers +3
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I don’t tend to do well predicting what will happen with the Atlanta Falcons, and this feels like another opportunity to get burned. Denver is at home, and their defense seems like a bad matchup for what Atlanta wants to do; the Broncos are 6th in defensive DVOA, 6th against the run (sorry, Bijan and Tyler), and 2nd in adjusted sack rate (sorry, Kirk). They have Patrick Surtain II to cover Drake London, and I still don’t really care about Kyle Pitts. I don’t trust Bo Nix or most of the Denver offense, but Atlanta’s defense is 24th in DVOA and Sean Payton has his team looking okay instead of worst-in-class. I’m sure I’m going to regret this, but I’m taking the home team to win by a field goal. Broncos -2.5
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Division rivalry again! The 49ers have won their last six games against the Seahawks by an average of two touchdowns, and I incorrectly thought that trend would change when I picked Seattle to cover earlier this year. The Niners have looked very mortal this season, but they can still rack up points in a hurry and Christian McCaffrey should be improving each week he’s back. Until I trust the Seattle offensive line to hold up in the run or pass games, I’m going to have trouble picking them to keep up against top offenses. 49ers -6.5
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Hang on, let me copy/paste from a few weeks back: Patrick Mahomes is getting points? Patrick Mahomes is getting points! This matchup isn’t as tilted as the Chiefs-Niners history has been, but I don’t know what Buffalo has done lately to deserve the standard home line against Kansas City. I’m pretty sure the Chiefs won’t have an undefeated season, but I’m not banking on knowing when it will come to an end. Just take Patrick Mahomes when he’s getting points! Chiefs +2.5
Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This game should be a good test for the Chargers; the Bengals are 4-6 but they have the 9th-ranked offense by DVOA, making them the best unit Khalil Mack and company have faced all season. I’d probably count on the Bengals to reset expectations with a high-scoring win, but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Justin Herbert in recent weeks. He looks healthy, he’s hurting teams on the ground and through the air, and he’s getting just enough contributions from an interesting receiving room to score 26, 27, and 27 points in the last three weeks. The Chargers are a considerably better team by DVOA, and that’s enough for me to pick them to win at home. Chargers -1.5
Dallas Cowboys +7.5 vs. Houston Texans
No one should have to watch the Cooper Rush version of the Dallas Cowboys, especially with CeeDee Lamb dinged up. Houston’s defense was really good against the Lions last week, and I think they’ll be out for revenge here after taking a tough loss. This is the start of a Cowboys-Titans-Jaguars stretch the Texans really need to sweep in order to establish their credibility as a threat in the postseason, and I think C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans will make it happen. Texans -7.5
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
