2024 NFL Picks Week 18: Who's Taking the NFC 1-Seed?
Picking Week 18 games (or Week 17 games for anyone old enough to remember the 16-game schedule the NFL played until 2020) is always tough. The postseason stakes are different for every team, but unless a situation has gone truly sour you expect the players and coaches to go all out as a demonstration for their next contract if nothing else. And, of course, you have connected events; if the Steelers win on Saturday, the Chargers’ game on Sunday becomes considerably less important and the likelihood of resting starters or pulling them early goes up. It’s probably smart to just avoid this week of the regular season altogether…but we don’t want to leave you in the lurch. Let’s see what we can do!
Baltimore Ravens -17.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
A Baltimore win here locks up the AFC North and at least one home playoff game for the Ravens. The Browns have nothing to play for and are reportedly starting Bailey Zappe after the failed experiment that was Dorian Thompson-Robinson. All of that is definitely reflected in this line, which has since moved to a full 20; I don’t blame you for taking the favorites here and counting on a classic Ravens romp, but the temptation to rest starters in the second half if they’re out to a huge lead is too great for me to lay this many points. Maybe I can hope for a second half Jameis Winston sighting to get things back within two scores. Browns +17.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This is another game with some curious stakes, as a Ravens’ win in the early window renders this one considerably less important for Pittsburgh. I just can’t pass up an opportunity to take the Steelers getting points at home against a Bengals’ team with such a shoddy resume. Cincy’s win over the Broncos (12th) last week finally gave them a win over a team ranked in the top two thirds of the league in DVOA; their other seven victories were against the Browns (32nd) twice, the Titans (29th), the Cowboys (23rd), the Raiders (27th), the Giants (28th), and the Panthers (31st). The Steelers threw all over them in their Week 13 matchup, and I expect them to do the same here. Steelers +2.5
New England Patriots +2 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have nothing to play for in this game, and when your only goal is to stay healthy heading into the playoffs, I expect to see you getting points on the road. The Patriots have been bad, but Drake Maye needs more real reps and the New England coaching staff needs to put some good tape down to secure their jobs for next season. They should be able to win at home even if it’s bad for their draft standing. Patriots +2
Atlanta Falcons -8 vs. Carolina Panthers
Michael Penix Jr. looks pretty good, but this pick is more about Carolina. Chuba Hubbard is done for the season, and the Panthers’ best wide receiver is 34-year old Adam Thielen. Their improved play in the second half of the season is an encouraging sign for Bryce Young’s development, but they also had the benefit of six home games and a bye in the last nine weeks. Their road record this year is 1-6, and we last saw them being blown out by the Bucs. Atlanta should roll through this one against a Panthers’ defense ranked 31st in DVOA. Falcons -8
Green Bay Packers -10 vs. Chicago Bears
Oh, if I could count on the Bears to keep things within 10 points against the Packers. Chicago is firmly in playing out the string territory, and Green Bay won’t pull a Seattle and only score 6 points against the remnants of our once-competent defense. I wish this wasn’t the world we lived in, but such is life. Packers -10
Tennessee Titans -1.5 vs. Houston Texans
If any team needs a tune-up heading into the playoffs, it’s Houston. Their offense is a disaster, and Tennessee’s 15th-ranked defense is just good enough to provide a training ground for C.J. Stroud. This line suggests the Texans will be resting their starters for at least part of the game, but I still expect the Houston defense to dominate and pick up one more win before the playoffs. Texans +1.5
Indianapolis Colts -5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Anthony Richardson is injured, so we’re back on the Colts! It’s not quite that simple, but I do love the idea of Joe Flacco going against Jacksonville’s 32nd-ranked defense and Mac Jones in a game Indianapolis really needs for respectability after an embarrassing loss to the Giants last week. The line is a little high, but I can’t take what’s left of the Jags on the road. Colts -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 vs. New Orleans Saints
I really wanted to take two touchdowns in a divisional game, but the Saints have passed the point of no return with injuries on both sides of the ball. They weren’t deep to begin with, and missing Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Taysom Hill on offense just leaves them with nothing. Their defense must be exhausted, and they lost to this Buccaneers team by 24 points in Week 6 despite scoring 20 straight points in the second quarter. I guess I have to count on Tampa again two weeks after their surprising loss to the Cowboys. Buccaneers -14
Philadelphia Eagles -2 vs. New York Giants
We know the Eagles are resting Saquon Barkley, but aren’t they good enough to beat the Giants by two without him? Kenny Pickett torched the Cowboys last week, and Dallas is better than the Giants on both sides of the ball. The game is in Philly and the Giants got their big surprise win of the season last week. The talent gap here is just too big. Eagles -2
Dallas Cowboys +6.5 vs. Washington Commanders
These teams played one of the crazier games of the year in Week 12, but Jayden Daniels was banged up and in the worst stretch of his rookie campaign. Cooper Rush can do just enough to make some games interesting, but there’s no reason to believe in him consistently. Washington is the better team and they need this game for playoff positioning, so a touchdown isn’t too much to ask. Commanders -6.5
Denver Broncos -10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City just strikes me as a team that loves ruining the vibes of opponents. Carson Wentz is an adequate backup with enough talent to execute some of Andy Reid’s more interesting ideas, and the Chiefs historically play hard even when stakes are low. I really didn’t like what I saw from Bo Nix against a terrible Bengals’ defense last week, so this line is too high for me to take Denver. Chiefs +10
New York Jets +1 vs. Miami Dolphins
This line would make sense if Tua was playing, but I don’t see why Miami is favored with Tyler Huntley under center. Yes, the Jets are terrible, but they’re at home and they have enough talent to line up against the Dolphins’ receivers. Unless they’ve really given up in the locker room, they can win against Miami’s backup QB. Jets +1
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This one will largely depend on the outcome of the Steelers-Bengals game, which I expect Pittsburgh to win. In that case, the Chargers won’t gain anything from a win and it’s reasonable that they’d rest Justin Herbert and the rest of their starters for at least the second half. They don’t have a particularly deep roster, and the Raiders have been kind of fine lately, so we’ll take the points. Raiders +4.5
Los Angeles Rams +6.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
I’m not laying a touchdown with a team that couldn’t get to seven points against my Bears last week even if they’re facing a bunch of backups. I expect the Seahawks to play hard just long enough to lock up some of Geno Smith’s contract incentives before mailing it in. Seattle should win, but this is too many points. Rams +6.5
Arizona Cardinals -4.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Both teams are out of the playoffs, but I think the 49ers are better on both sides of the ball. I’m not sure why this line is bigger than the standard home 2.5, so we’ll take San Francisco getting more than a field goal. 49ers +4.5
Detroit Lions -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
This one is for all the regular season marbles! Detroit’s defense is banged up beyond recognition, but their offense feels as dangerous as ever after four straight games of 34+ points. Minnesota has done a great job this season, but I’m still in the camp of Sam Darnold doubters. The Lions aren’t going to let interceptions slip through their fingers, and if he presses and gives Detroit an extra possession or two, that’s enough for Ben Johnson and Jared Goff to run away with it. Forward down the field! Lions -3
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
