2024 NFL Picks Week 17: A Winning Week for Christmas
Well that was a rough one. The end of the season always has a chance of getting weird with some teams giving up on coaches and others playing with surprising heart despite being eliminated from playoff contention. I’m not sure we were wildly off on many of the teams though; sometimes the ball just doesn’t bounce your way. Let’s see if we can get a little luckier on Christmas week!
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Look, anything can happen on a short week, and if George Pickens is suiting up we should see a little more something from the Pittsburgh offense. Even so, the Chiefs have a chance to lock up the 1-seed in the AFC and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have an absurd track record (3-0, +52 point differential) against the Steelers. Don't overthink this one, just count on Kansas City to win by a field goal against a clearly inferior opponent. Chiefs -2.5
Houston Texans +4.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I went back and forth on this one, but in the end Tank Dell’s season-ending injury scared me too much to take the home underdogs. Lamar Jackson is playing great, and while I'm a big believer in the Houston defense, you’re going to need to reach 20 points to cover this spread. The Texans’ offense couldn't get out of the mud against Miami or Kansas City, and now they're missing their best deep threat. Baltimore should win this one going away and put themselves back atop the AFC North. Ravens -4.5
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
There is no transitive property in football; if there were, the Rams would be considered the best team in the league because they knocked off the Bills right after Buffalo handed Kansas City their first loss of the season. But common games, especially recent common games, must be able to tell us something. Since Chicago fired Matt Eberflus and pushed more of their coaches into roles they weren't prepared for, we've lost to the Vikings and 49ers by a combined 43 points. Seattle has played those teams since their Week 11 bye, and they went 1-1 with an even point differential. Since the coaching change we've lost three games by an average of 20 points per game. I'm scared of what Mike Macdonald’s defense will do to our offense at this point, and Seattle should easily win by a touchdown. Bears +3.5
New England Patriots +4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I haven't quite figured out how to predict the Chargers’ offensive performances game-to-game. It might just be a matter of a receiving corps with butterfingers, where two drives are just coin flips to be short-circuited each week. It would take a LOT of drops for them to struggle against New England’s defense, and while Drake Maye has been fun to watch, he's still a rookie with a limited supporting cast. We'll take the playoff team giving just over a field goal. Chargers -4
Cincinnati Bengals -3 vs. Denver Broncos
I really wanted to take the Bengals here and keep their hopes of a playoff berth alive. Whether they could actually beat Buffalo or not, a Burrow-Allen showdown is by far the best matchup we could hope for in the first round of the playoffs. But here's the list of teams Cincy has actually beaten this year: the Andy Dalton Panthers, the Daniel Jones Giants, the Deshaun Watson Browns, the Minshew-Ridder Raiders, the Cooper Rush Cowboys, the Mason Rudolph Titans, and the Dorian Thompson-Robinson Browns. You better believe Sean Payton has a better plan for Bo Nix than any of those offenses, and Denver’s defense is a class above those opponents as well. The Broncos should be favored here, so I'll happily take them and the points. Broncos +3
Los Angeles Rams -6 vs. Arizona Cardinals
A classic case of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cardinals were a fun story, but letting your playoff hopes die against the Panthers is a tough look. Am I supposed to believe Kyler Murray will be locked in now that they're eliminated from the postseason? Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford should be out for revenge after Arizona shellacked them in Week 2, and with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, they'll get it. Rams -6
Buffalo Bills -9.5 vs. New York Jets
I'm a little surprised the line is this high after Buffalo’s middling performance against the Pats last week, and I'm trusting my gut. The only way Aaron Rodgers can keep the spotlight on him for another full year is to look just good enough down the stretch to convince delusional Jets fans and anti-vaxxers that he's still got it. The Bills should win, but it needs to be a closer final score to doom us all to another Rodgers-centric offseason. Jets +9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -1 vs. Tennessee Titans
All I want for Christmas is more opportunities to pick teams getting points against Mac Jones. Both teams are terrible, so I'll take the one with a defense and an extra point. Titans +1
New Orleans Saints +1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The New Orleans offense might just be out of NFL-caliber players. They looked utterly lost against the Packers last week, and while the Raiders aren't nearly the same class of team as Green Bay, we don't need them to win by 30. We just need them to win! I won't be watching, but I'm counting on Las Vegas. Raiders -1
Philadelphia Eagles -9 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has been playing well lately with wins over the Bucs and Panthers, but the Eagles present a much different challenge. Philly should push the Cowboys around on both sides of the ball, and if Dallas can't stop Saquon Barkley, Cooper Rush is going to be forced to throw in the face of a strong pass rush. That's a recipe for disaster, and I'm here for it. Eagles -9
New York Giants +8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
If there was a team I'd expect to lose to the Colts by double digits, it's the Giants. They were atrocious last week against Atlanta, and it's hard to shake that from my memory as I compare these two teams. But I have to look at the larger sample size for both teams, and if the Giants can just avoid letting Jonathan Taylor go bananas like he did against the Titans, the final score should be closer than this. Giants +8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been playing too well lately for a line this high, and even if their record in the last seven games was worse than 3-4, they've been tough on the Bucs recently. Tampa was lucky to pull out a three point overtime win in Carolina in Week 13, and a considerably worse Panthers team almost kept them out of the playoffs in a 9-0 game in Week 17 of last year. I expect Tampa Bay to win, but not by enough to cover. Panthers +8
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
This is it! The Vikings have a chance to sweep the Packers for the first time since 2017 and keep their hopes for the NFC’s 1-seed alive. Unfortunately for them, Packers haters can't have nice things, and five straight 30-point games from Green Bay makes it seem like their offense is really clicking. He's done a good job putting it off, but Sam Darnold is long overdue for a backbreaking turnover. This is the week we get it. Packers +1.5
Cleveland Browns +6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
As long as Dorian Thompson-Robinson is under center for the Browns, I need to see double digits before I pick them. The Dolphins have scored 27+ points in six of the nine games since Tua came back from injury, and this version of Cleveland doesn't have the same defense as Houston or Green Bay. 21-10 is enough to get this one done, and I'm banking on that. Dolphins -6.5
Washington Commanders -4.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. had a nice debut last week, but there might not be a softer starting assignment than this version of the Giants. Washington’s defense isn't great, but they're better than what the Giants have and their offense shouldn't miss a beat against a bad Falcons’ defense. Washington wins this one by a touchdown. Commanders -4.5
San Francisco 49ers +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
This line made more sense a couple weeks ago, but after watching Brock Purdy and the Niners flail their postseason ambitions away against the Dolphins last week, I can't figure it out. If Minnesota loses, this game could clinch the 1-seed for Detroit, and they need it as badly as any team in recent memory. San Francisco’s defense hasn't been the same this year, and if the Lions break 30 points again, this line isn't high enough. Lions -3.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
