2024 NFL Picks Week 6: Licking Our Wounds
That was a frustrating week. Late Sunday, I realized we were sitting at 6-6-1 despite feeling good about the lines and thinking most of the games had played out as expected. How does that happen? The Bucs blow their game against the Falcons, the Cardinals get aggressive and lucky and erase a 10-point deficit against the Niners, and the Cowboys score a touchdown on 4th and ballgame to beat Pittsburgh. That kind of luck usually evens out over the course of the season, so let’s hope more coin flips go our way this week.
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Last week I picked the 49ers to cover a seven point spread at home against the Cardinals based on Arizona’s defensive weakness and a recent history of dominance in the divisional rivalry. The Cardinals held San Francisco scoreless in the second half and won the game outright. This week I saw the same factors in place; Seattle’s 13th-ranked defense is clearly their weak point, and the Niners had won the last five meetings by an average of 15.2 points per game. But I wasn’t falling for that trick again, because this year’s 49ers just haven’t found their stride like past versions. I took the Seahawks and the points at home. The Niners won by 12. Cool. Seahawks +3.5
Chicago Bears -2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
We are going-going, back-back to London-London. Last week we saw Robert Saleh’s last game as head coach of the Jets (plenty more on that in this week’s podcast), and the first-class seat of Doug Pederson should be feeling a little warm even after a close win over the Colts last week. The only question for this line is whether the improvement we’ve seen from Caleb Williams is real or an effect of playing the Rams and Panthers in consecutive weeks. Chicago’s defense will give Trevor Lawrence plenty of opportunities to display his worst habits, so we just need the offense to take care of the ball and seize the opportunities they get. Luckily, the Jags’ defense is now ranked dead last in defensive DVOA. The Bears should absolutely win by at least a field goal. Bears -2
Green Bay Packers -5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I can’t pick a Cardinals’ game right to save my life, but this line seems high. Arizona’s offense is ranked 13th and the Green Bay defense is ranked 17th. That’s an improvement from where they were last year, but I want to see more out of Jordan Love before I trust him to take care of big spreads. Last week’s Will Levis impression almost cost his team the game, and if the Pack play conservatively, the Cards can keep it close to the end. Cardinals +5
New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This line moved six points because of the Derek Carr injury, and while I have no idea what to expect from Spencer Rattler, that seems a little dramatic. There’s a world where Todd Bowles makes Rattler look lost, Baker Mayfield continues his hot streak in games where I’m not starting him on my fantasy team, and the Bucs win in New Orleans by two touchdowns. I just can’t pass up getting the home underdog here when the Saints’ defense has been really good and I like the ability of Klint Kubiak to scheme up some shot plays to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Saints +3.5
New England Patriots +6.5 vs. Houston Texans
Drake Maye is making his NFL debut against a Texans team that has been a little disappointing through five games. The Texans are 4-1, but they haven’t won a game by more than 6 points despite playing the Colts, Bears, and Jaguars. They’ve been fine, but we were expecting much more from the offense than we’ve seen so far. That said…I think this is the week. There’s a reason the Patriots have been sitting Maye until now, and whether it’s because the offensive line is dangerously bad or because he’s not quite ready for the NFL, there are going to be some growing pains. The Texans have the third-ranked defense by DVOA and their offense should be able to run up the score with short fields against the Pats’ 28th-ranked unit. One touchdown is not a lot to ask. Texans -6.5
Tennessee Titans -2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I’m getting points against Will Levis again? Didn’t Joe Flacco just lead the Colts to 30+ points against the Jags last week? I know Indianapolis has some problems, but the same is certainly true of Tennessee, and at least I can pick the better offensive line, receiving corps, and quarterback with the underdog here. Of course it could go horribly wrong, but I feel better going this route than watching Levis try to protect a lead late in the game. Colts +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 vs. Cleveland Browns
I hate everything about this game. Yes, the Eagles coming off a bye with important offensive weapons back in the fold should destroy Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns, just like every team but the Jaguars has this season. I just can’t take this year’s version of Philly with a line this high in a season where all the big favorites have been struggling. I don’t yet know how the Browns’ offense will make this a game, but 8.5 to 0 is a good place to start. Browns +8.5
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Washington Commanders
This could be the week Jayden Daniels hits the rookie wall. Unlike the Browns last week, the Ravens play the type of complementary football that allows their offense to take a lead and the defense to force opponents into a less comfortable section of the playbook. However, this year’s Ravens had to win a wild overtime shootout against the Bengals and almost lost a big lead to the Cowboys. Their defense is just too suspect to trust against one of the league’s best offenses getting so many points. Commanders +6.5
Denver Broncos +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I don’t think I’m particularly high on the Broncos, but should they be big underdogs to the Chargers at home? They’re almost identical in DVOA, and while I much prefer the Chargers’ quarterback, we haven’t seen the special version of Justin Herbert in a long time. Jim Harbaugh might even prefer the type of game that results in a 3-point win over something more high-variance. Until I see some flashes of offense out of the Chargers, I’m expecting a lot of close, low-scoring games, in which case I want the points. Broncos +3
Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have burned me the last two weeks, but this is the week they turn things around. Their defense looks more “good” than “dominant”, but this is an easy matchup for them. The Raiders looked okay in Week 5 before a 100-yard pick-six flipped the script and my fortune, and now Aidan O’Connell is starting. Las Vegas is 29th in defensive DVOA, and some piece of the Pittsburgh offense is bound to work eventually. Let’s hope we get good Justin Fields and a nice 17-13 victory. Steelers -3
Carolina Panthers +6 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The home team here is getting almost a full touchdown, but they might be the worst team in football. On the other side, the Falcons have three wins by a combined nine points, and six of those came in overtime last week. I won’t feel good taking Carolina any time this year, but this is just too many points for a home team against an Atlanta unit that hasn’t shown the ability to dominate anyone. Panthers +6
Dallas Cowboys +3 vs. Detroit Lions
Detroit is a well-coached team coming off a bye and the Cowboys have a long list of injuries to work through on a defense that is already underachieving. We’ve seen Dallas struggle against power run games already this year; the Lions might be the best power run team in the league. Detroit’s defense has really struggled against teams with two big receivers; the Cowboys have CeeDee Lamb and a bunch of replacement-level players for Dak Prescott to throw to. I’m taking the Lions by at least a touchdown as they kick off the post-bye portion of their season. Lions -3
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Giants came through for me last week, but Malik Nabers will be out for this game and the Bengals’ offense has scored 30+ points in three straight weeks. As much as I’ve revised my opinion of the NFC New York team since their opening losses to the Giants and Commanders, it’s hard to stay competitive when you’re trading field goals with touchdowns. Cincinnati needs this win to keep any playoff hope alive, and they’ll score early and often. Bengals -3.5
New York Jets +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
I think there’s a narrative that Josh Allen has struggled against the Jets, but I think it’s more accurate that he’s struggled against the Jets and expectations.The Bills have won six of their last eight games against the Jets despite some puzzling mistakes from their MVP-caliber quarterback, and the defense they’ll be facing this year isn’t as good as the 2023 or 2022 units. On the other side of the ball, Todd Downing shouldn’t have too much trouble improving on Nathaniel Hackett’s ideas, but Buffalo’s defense has been great against the pass and Breece Hall hasn’t looked like his old self running the ball. I’d take the Jets if this was more than a field goal, but I don’t think the Bills are going to lose a third consecutive game, and they should win by three. Bills -2.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
