2024 NFL Picks Week 5: Revenge of the Favorites
We got rolled in primetime to end Week 4, dropping us below .500 for the season. I went back and forth on both Monday Night Football games, but ended up picking the wrong sides by overestimating the impact Mike McDaniel and Mike Macdonald would have. Sunday Night Football was a little different, with a very ill-advised trick play torpedoing any hope the Bills had of staging a comeback. Underdogs have been on a real run this year, but I’m expecting that to end this week. Let’s get to the picks!
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
When the Buccaneers went up 27-20, I felt pretty good about this pick. I felt even better about it when Bucky Irving broke a nice run with 3 minutes left and the score 30-27, right up until he fumbled the ball back to Atlanta. I felt good again when Tampa got the ball back with the same 30-27 lead, the ball on Atlanta’s 28, and 1:44 to go in the game. Two negative plays and a holding call later, Tampa was punting to Atlanta with over a minute left in regulation, and soon after KhaDarel Hodge was scoring the winning touchdown in overtime. What a way to start the week. Buccaneers +2.5
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs. New York Jets (in London)
It’s a Sam Darnold revenge game! And wait…last week was a Broncos-Nathaniel Hackett-Aaron Rodgers revenge circle. And I’m sure there’s some revenge to be had in the matchup with the Bills next week, even though the Jets won last year’s season opener after losing Rodgers on their fourth offensive play. If every game is a revenge game, maybe the Jets are the problem? They’ll certainly have issues here, as Minnesota is undefeated and top-ranked in DVOA heading into this matchup in London. I’m sure there’s a game script where the Jets get on top early and force Darnold into some mistakes, but I have too much faith in Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings’ run game to actually expect it. Add in a 40-year old, limping Aaron Rodgers against a Brian Flores defense generating regular pressure, and I’m happy to take the better team giving less than a field goal. Vikings -2.5
Chicago Bears -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
Andy Dalton is returning to Chicago with a very bad Panthers team, and for some reason the line here is just over a field goal. The Bears’ defense and special teams are legit, and I really like some of the progress I’ve seen from Caleb Williams over the past couple of weeks. I’m willing to chalk Carolina’s one win up to a bad Raiders team unprepared to face Dalton instead of Bryce Young, because they followed it up with a 10-point loss to the Bengals last week. We have enough of a talent advantage to be favored by more than a point on a neutral field, so we’ll hope for a bigger win at home. Bears -3.5
Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati’s offense looks to be back on track after a disappointing opener against the Patriots, putting up 30+ points in back-to-back weeks. They also played two of the worst defenses in the league, but it shows that Joe Burrow can still take advantage of matchups and rack up points in a hurry. Baltimore is coming off one of the biggest wins of the season in their demolition of Buffalo, and they looked so good on Sunday night that it’s tempting to fade them now. Cincy has played Baltimore tough at home in the Joe Burrow era, but I don’t have enough trust in the Bengals’ defense this time around. If the line was 3.5 or more, I’d take Cincinnati and hope for a backdoor cover at worst, but I need more than a field goal for the team who gave up 24 points to Carolina last week. Ravens -2.5
Houston Texans -1 vs. Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs seeking revenge doesn’t make this spread any more reasonable. Houston hasn’t been able to run the ball since Joe Mixon went out, and Buffalo is looking to bounce back after being embarrassed by the Ravens. Anything C.J. Stroud can do, Josh Allen can match, and the Bills’ preferred defensive scheme has been causing problems for the Texans all season. Maybe I’m missing something, but I think the Bills are closer in quality to the Vikings (who beat Houston 34-7) than the Bears, Colts, or Jaguars (who each lost to Houston by one score). Give me Josh Allen and the extra point. Bills +1
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Jaguars are 0-4 on the year and now they’re favored by a full field goal. Indianapolis might be better off in the short term if Joe Flacco continues filling in for Anthony Richardson, and the Jags are just counting down the days until Doug Pederson’s firing after he resorted to calling out his players last week. There’s not much to like about this Indy team, and Jacksonville probably needs to win eventually, but this line is too high. Colts +3
New England Patriots -1 vs. Miami Dolphins
You know the GIF of Gary Johnston in Team America throwing up endlessly? No, I’m just really old? Either way, it’s a good preview of this game. No one wants to watch the current versions of these teams face off, but here we are. I expected Mike McDaniel to have some ideas for generating offense without Tua, but that clearly wasn’t the case against the Titans last week. New England can do a couple of things competently (they’re second in special teams DVOA and 18th defensively against the run), and they’ll have a small rest advantage coming into this game at home. That’s enough for me with a line this low. Patriots -1
Washington Commanders -3 vs. Cleveland Browns
I’ve heard some buzz that the Jayden Daniels thrill ride will slow down a bit as he faces a real defense for the first time this week. The slander of their opponents-to-date is warranted; somehow the Giants have the best defense the Commanders have played all year and they’re 21st in DVOA. I’m not sure the Browns represent the same wake-up call they would have last year, though. They’re 20th in defensive DVOA and gave up 20+ points to the Giants and Raiders. Maybe I’ll regret this one when Daniels throws his second interception of the first half, but until Deshaun Watson leads his team to 20+ points for the first time since Week 10 of last year, I’m counting on the league’s 2nd-ranked offense by DVOA to cover a field goal at home. Commanders -3
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Denver’s defense and special teams are both in the top 5 of DVOA while the Raiders’ best unit is their 12th-ranked special teams. The Broncos are at home, Maxx Crosby might be out, and Davante Adams has requested a trade. And yet…Denver hasn’t beaten the Raiders since they played in Oakland, and they haven’t won by more than a field goal since 2017. Bo Nix was a disaster last week, and Sean Payton’s offense now ranks 28th in DVOA. I just can’t pick them to cover a full field goal against a division rival. Raiders +3
San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Speaking of divisional matchups, the 49ers have won four straight games against the Cardinals by an average of 22 points per game, and their offense looked healthy and on track in a big blowout of the Patriots last week. The Cardinals’ defense offered Jayden Daniels little resistance on his way to 42 points, and they’re down to 29th in DVOA. Arizona has scored just 27 points in the last two weeks after good showings in Weeks 1 and 2, so I don’t see the consistency I need before counting on them to buck their trends against San Francisco. 49ers -7
Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Green Bay Packers
We shouldn’t read too much into the Packers’ near-comeback against the Vikings last week because Minnesota really dominated the game before some fluky plays allowed things to get close. It’s still reasonable to think Jordan Love had to shake off some rust, though, and there’s a real ceiling on this Rams’ offense without Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua around. The Rams don’t have much of a home field advantage, and Green Bay suddenly needs a win to keep pace in an increasingly competitive NFC North. The Packers have to get a win with Jordan Love under center eventually, right? Packers -3
Seattle Seahawks -7 vs. New York Giants
I had as much fun as anyone dunking on the Giants in the early weeks of this season, but a four week sample does some crazy things. Suddenly, getting drubbed by Minnesota puts you in the same boat as the Houston Texans. Holding Washington to 21 points is an admirable feat, and splitting one-score games against the Browns and Cowboys is just run-of-the-mill bad instead of embarrassing. On the other side of the ball, Seattle has been a lot of fun on offense, but they’ve been much better at generating yardage (5th) than points (10th). The Giants should be able to get some pressure up the middle on Geno, and it’s just hard to trust anyone to cover a full touchdown this year. Help us out, Malik Nabers! Giants +7
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh is favored by less than a field goal at home, coming off a tough loss, and facing a Dallas team somehow ranked 27th in defensive DVOA. Maybe the Cowboys can ride their special teams (they’re 1st in DVOA by a mile) in a field goal battle, but I don’t trust them to cover the spread with a line this small on the road, especially when Ezekiel Elliott is still getting touches and their defense is dead last against the run. Steelers -2.5
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
I’m a little annoyed with the Chiefs for turning what looked like an easy win into a push last week, coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win 17-10. That 7-point margin is their biggest win of the year, and it came against a Chargers team ranked 17th in DVOA. New Orleans comes into this game ranked 3rd, six spots ahead of the Chiefs. I’m not saying the Saints are going to go into Arrowhead and grab a win, but with all of Kansas City’s injuries, they can definitely keep things close. Saints +5.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
