2024 NFL Picks Week 8: Movin' On Up
Back-to-back winning weeks has us over .500 for the season, but things change fast in the NFL and we’re currently on vacation in Japan. It wasn’t easy to find a place to watch NFL games last week, but I’m hoping I’m all caught up on injury and trade news while I run through a full 16-game slate for the first time since Week 4. What could go wrong?
Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I was really impressed with the way Minnesota hung tight with Detroit last week, and together with San Francisco’s struggles and injury woes, it makes me think they’re real contenders for the NFC Championship. This game and this line both feel like traps, though. Neither team has a significant rest advantage, but the Vikings played a tough game against a very physical Lions team last week and the Rams played against the Raiders. Add a small home field advantage and the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to the usual Thursday Night Football wackiness, and we have the makings of an upset or at least a high-scoring shootout. I’m taking the points. Rams +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
It’s possible we’ve seen the last of Baker Mayfield, quarterback triple-crown threat for 2024. Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin would be terrible news for any team, but the throws Baker has been hitting this year are helped greatly by having two big-time contested catch targets on the receiving end. I’m just hesitant to think it makes them a worse team than the Falcons. Tampa Bay is better by DVOA on offense and defense, and even with a slip offensively they can move the ball on this Atlanta team. A crazy Thursday night matchup between these teams went to overtime just a few weeks ago, and I think the Bucs get revenge here. Buccaneers +2.5
Houston Texans -5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Here’s a classic divisional matchup where I’m not sure the regular stats give us all the information we need. Houston is the better team and they’re playing at home, so the spread makes sense at first glance. But something about Indy has given the Texans trouble over the past couple of years, including a strange 2-point game earlier this season. If Nico Collins was healthy I’d take Houston at this number, but I don’t trust the rest of the Texans’ offense enough to give more than a field goal without him. Colts +5
Miami Dolphins -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I guess this line is because of Tua’s return to the field after his latest concussion, but Miami had some real problems before he went down in Week 2. Arizona hasn’t looked particularly good at anything, but they’ve played a really hard schedule in the first seven weeks. I need to see more from a consistently healthy Tua before I start backing the Dolphins as favorites again. Cardinals +3
Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
Were we somehow impressed with what Jacksonville did against the Pats in their second week in London? This team didn’t become good just because they finally won a game by more than a field goal. They were facing a rookie quarterback in his second start, and now they need to slow down the Packers, who have the league’s 5th-best offense by DVOA despite starting Malik Willis for two games. This one looks like a huge mismatch in both talent and coaching, so I’m happy to get Green Bay at less than a touchdown. Packers -4.5
New England Patriots +7 vs. New York Jets
I so badly want to pick against the Jets here, but I just can’t find a way to do it. The Patriots have scored a little under 8 points per game in their last four meetings with the Jets, and while Aaron Rodgers has (predictably!) struggled to deliver on his absurd promises, he’ll be able to throw on the league’s 30th-ranked defense. I’ll be laughing all day if I’m wrong, but this is a perfect spot for the Jets to look good before blowing it in their next matchup with a real opponent. Jets -7
Detroit Lions -11 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Lions’ offense is reaching a dangerous point for my picks, because it’s becoming hard to envision them scoring under 30 points against anyone. Their defense has some issues, especially without Aidan Hutchinson, but Tennessee’s offense is truly terrible. Detroit has all of the advantages, they’re at home, and they’re on a roll; don’t overthink it. Lions -11
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Huh? Is this because the Eagles looked so good against the New York Giants last week? Cincy’s offense should be nightmare fuel for Philadelphia fans, and while there’s been a lot of concern about Lou Anarumo’s defense this year, they’ve only given up 20+ points to Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, and, uh…Andy Dalton. But still! Their defense is 20th in DVOA because they’ve been fine, and they’re definitely good enough to force Jalen Hurts to beat them instead of letting Saquon Barkley run wild. I think the Bengals are what the Eagles wish they were, and they’ll win by a field goal at home. Bengals -2.5
Cleveland Browns +8.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Can Jameis Winston be much worse than Deshaun Watson for the Cleveland offense? The answer is no, because Watson has been historically bad, but that’s no guarantee he’ll be a lot better. Baltimore has been rolling since they killed me and many other survivor league participants back in Week 2, but I’m still a little worried about their defense. If the Browns can look competent with Watson out and Nick Chubb back, and their offense goes from disgusting to just below average, it’s hard to overstate how different the team might look and feel. I’m probably overthinking this one, but with some close games in the recent rivalry I’d rather take the underdog and the big spread. Browns +8.5
Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has been mostly predictable this season, with big wins over terrible teams, small wins over decent teams, and losses to good teams. They haven’t played many average teams, so I’m not sure what to expect against Seattle. The Seahawks just keep racking up stats against bad defenses, but they’ve shown no ability to get stops against good offenses. Seattle has a big edge in special teams, but I’m too high on the Bills to put these teams in the same category just yet. I need to see Geno translate all of his yardage into more points against playoff-caliber teams before I take his side. Bills -3
Los Angeles Chargers -7 vs. New Orleans Saints
I know things haven’t been going well for New Orleans, but this line is huge for two middling teams and no home field advantage worth noting. The Saints have a big rest advantage coming into this game, and if they get some intended starters back, they can at least keep things close in Los Angeles. The Chargers don’t have enough offensive weaponry to justify a line this size against anyone in the non-Panthers and non-Raiders division. Saints +7
Denver Broncos -9 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Broncos should win this game handily. Their defense has been terrific, and while Bo Nix is just okay, he and Sean Payton present enough problems to score points on the league’s 31st-ranked defense. I’m just not ready to take the Broncos and a line this high, though. Their offense still ranks 24th in DVOA, and if they fall behind early I have no confidence in Nix to bring things back. I don’t like it, but I’m siding with Carolina. Panthers +9
Washington Commanders +2.5 vs. Chicago Bears
This line suggests Jayden Daniels is out, and my pick shows just how much I like the rookie quarterback my team didn’t take with the first overall pick. Daniels has been terrific this year, and I have no faith in the Washington offense without him. Chicago’s defense is really good, and an improving Caleb Williams shouldn’t be sweating at the sight of the Commanders’ defense. I wish we could see Daniels and Williams face off, but Chicago better pick up this win against Marcus Mariota. Bears -2.5
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I haven’t liked taking the Chiefs and these big numbers for quite some time, but the Raiders are a special kind of bad. The Antonio Pierce head coaching experiment isn’t going well, neither Aiden O’Connell nor Gardner Minshew have anyone to throw to, and Maxx Crosby can only take so much. I know the Chiefs lost to the Raiders last year, but if they take care of the ball and keep up their play defensively, they’re at least two touchdowns better than this version of Las Vegas. Chiefs -9.5
San Francisco 49ers -4 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I know everyone on San Francisco is hurt, but they’re still a much better team than the Cowboys and they’ve outright owned them head-to-head over the past few years. Is Dak suddenly going to turn things around on the road against the league’s 6th-ranked defense? Are the injured and easy-to-run-on Cowboys going to fix their issues against Kyle Shanahan’s run scheme? This might be our last chance to pick against a clearly overrated Dallas squad, and I’m taking it. 49ers -4
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 vs. New York Giants
Russell Wilson is a better NFL quarterback than Justin Fields. Fields provides some excitement and an occasional quality game with his legs, but he’s too limited as a passer to consistently move the chains and he makes too many mistakes with the football to play the field position game. Pittsburgh’s defense has been good, and they can easily shut down Daniel Jones without Andrew Thomas available to help block T.J. Watt. I wish the line was a little lower, but it’s not high enough for me to count on the Giants on the road. Steelers -6
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
