2024 NFL Picks Week 9: Rat Lines
We had a couple tough endings to some very fun games last weekend, but we’ll take the close finish for an even week with so many close games. This week’s matchup should give some of the top teams in the NFL like Detroit, Kansas City, and Baltimore get themselves rushing down the right path into the second half of the season while the Bears and Vikings both try to get back on track. Let’s see who we expect to improve their outlook heading into the season’s second half!
New York Jets -2 vs. Houston Texans
A 2-6 team is hosting a 6-2 team and they’re favored by two points. If 2.5 is the standard home spread, the “actual” gap implied by this line is just a half point. Does that feel right to anyone? By DVOA, Houston is 7th and the Jets are 24th. Even factoring in the addition of Davante Adams and the absence of Nico Collins, I’d expect this line to be around even. I don’t understand why I’m getting points with the better team, coach, and quarterback, but I’ll take it. Texans +2
Atlanta Falcons -3 vs. Dallas Cowboys
I’ve been hesitant to bet on the Falcons all season, but this feels like the right time. The Cowboys are reeling after a loss to a very injured 49ers team, and now they’re on the road against the league’s 6th-best offense by DVOA. Dallas just needs so much from CeeDee Lamb to keep up with talented teams; with two struggling defenses involved, I like the weapons in Atlanta more. Falcons -3
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 vs. Denver Broncos
The Ravens fell on their faces a bit last week, but I like them in this spot more for a couple of reasons. Last week’s game came against a high-variance Browns team, a divisional rival with big names on defense and Jameis Winston finally stepping in for Deshaun Watson. The Broncos can’t challenge Baltimore’s defense the same way, and they haven’t faced a team as good as Baltimore all year. This will be Bo Nix’s biggest test to-date, and I expect it to get ugly after Lamar Jackson stakes the Ravens to an early lead. Ravens -9.5
Buffalo Bills -6 vs. Miami Dolphins
Alright, I still don’t get what we’re seeing with Miami. The Bills have been one of the best teams in the league this year, and we haven’t seen a lot to suggest we should trust the Dolphins even with Tua on the field. Even if the Miami offense gets a little something going without an offensive line, do we think their 27th-ranked defense is going to slow down Josh Allen? Buffalo is ready to go on a run, and they can easily win by a touchdown at home. Bills -6
Carolina Panthers +7 vs. New Orleans Saints
Andy Dalton is back at practice, but it looks like Bryce Young is set to start this game. Carolina with Bryce needs more than a touchdown against any team that’s competent or better, and with Derek Carr coming back for the Saints I think they fit the bill. New Orleans needs to regain some of their early-season form on offense if they want to stay in the playoff picture, and the Panthers’ 31st-ranked defense will make that achievable. I don’t feel great about it, but I’d feel far worse hoping for Bryce Young to put something together at the end of a game to get me a cover. Saints -7
Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs. New England Patriots
I mean…I don’t like the Patriots very much, but why would anyone want to bet on Will Levis or Mason Rudolph? Drake Maye is still a very raw quarterback prospect, but if he’s back this weekend he gives the New England offense just enough juice to make them interesting as underdogs. Tennessee’s 9th-ranked defense is the best unit in the game, but I don’t like it enough to trust them to cover more than a field goal. Patriots +3.5
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Not a lot to look forward to in this game. The Raiders are pretty bad across the board, but they’re closer to “okay” than terrible at most things. Just a few weeks ago it seemed like the Bengals had found some of the offensive form that carried them to a Super Bowl, but they’ve struggled since against the Giants, Browns, and Eagles, and their defense is ranked 25th in DVOA. They can beat this Raiders team by two touchdowns, but I need more consistency to bank on it. Raiders +7
Cleveland Browns +1.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Last week we pointed out that even poor play from Jameis Winston would represent a big upgrade for the Browns, and it only took one week for Vegas to recalibrate the lines. The Chargers are pretty good across the board, but more importantly for this pick I think Jim Harbaugh has them playing a steady, low-variance brand of football that feeds into the strengths of their defense and Justin Herbert. I wouldn’t want to take Los Angeles and a big spread, but Herbert is good enough to make plays and move the ball on the Browns’ defense; Winston is bound to make one or two mistakes that cost Cleveland the game. Chargers -1.5
New York Giants +3.5 vs. Washington Commanders
This is a tough one. The Giants have shown enough life on defense to stay out of the “I need more than a field goal against anyone” range, but they looked ready to throw in the towel against Pittsburgh last week. They’re also playing on short rest against a division rival who seems to have improved considerably since the Commanders beat them 21-18 in September. Maybe the Giants can get something going with Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers, but they’ve only scored 20 points twice this year. They need more to keep up with Jayden Daniels. Commanders -3.5
Arizona Cardinals -1 vs. Chicago Bears
The old Chicago showdown! I don’t feel great picking Caleb Williams after his performance against Washington last week, but the arrow is generally pointing up for him and the Chicago offense. If they can resist the urge to call trick plays with the game on the line and do anything to slow down Arizona’s mediocre pass rush, they should score 25 in this game. Chicago’s defense should come out on fire after blowing the Commanders game on a hail mary, and if they stay disciplined against Kyler Murray they should keep Arizona under 20. Bears +1
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Are the Eagles back, or are the Giants and Bengals both bad? Two weeks ago, Nick Sirianni was shouting at his own fans after a big 4-point victory over the Browns, and it seems like the NFL world wants us to believe everything has been fixed in Philly. Jacksonville played a good Packers’ team close last week and now they’re getting more than a touchdown. I think Trevor Lawrence and the Jags’ offense is too good to be getting this many points. Jaguars +7.5
Green Bay Packers +3.5 vs. Detroit Lions
I wasn’t sure what to expect from Jordan Love before he got injured, and now it’s even harder to picture him throwing together a spectacular four quarters the way he did a few times last season. Detroit is playing their best football of the year, and even without Aidan Hutchinson their defense is currently 3rd in DVOA. The Packers are talented enough to keep this game close, but they’ve been bouncing between explosive plays and stretches of poor play all season. That’s not good enough when you’re going against the very best teams in the league. Lions -3.5
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Seattle is between 12th and 15th in DVOA on offense, defense, and special teams. They aren’t great at anything, but first-year head coach Mike Macdonald has made sure they don’t have any glaring flaws, either. As much as I like what I’ve seen from them and Geno Smith, the Rams have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup, and the way Matthew Stafford is playing puts their offensive ceiling so much higher. Throw in a little improvement from the Rams’ defense in the past few weeks, and I like them to pick up a road win here. Rams -1.5
Minnesota Vikings -5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Joe Flacco is the right kind of quarterback to take advantage of the aggressive blitzing of Vikings’ Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores. He doesn’t hesitate to throw the deep ball, and he’s seen enough in his long career to remain calm in the face of pressure. I just like Minnesota’s matchups more here. The Colts’ defense doesn’t create the kind of chaos Sam Darnold struggles against, and he has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the field. Unless the Vikings’ early season run was truly fraudulent, they’re better than Indianapolis by a touchdown. Vikings -5
Kansas City Chiefs -9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hmmm…the Chiefs couldn’t cover 10 against the Raiders last week, and now they’re favored by more than a touchdown against a much better opponent. This line feels like a trap, but I can’t bring myself to take the Chiefs and these big spreads again until they find a source of explosive plays on offense. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs should keep things within one score. Buccaneers +9
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
