2019 NFL Picks Week 10: Ouch!
It’s never fun to go 5-9, but last week was particularly excruciating. From Arizona’s 88-yard cover-breaking touchdown to Philadelphia’s cover-making field goal with 30 seconds left and Adam Vinatieri’s Ace Ventura callback, a lot of results swung right at the last moment. I think this week will be a little clearer, with good teams looking to make statements as the playoff picture begins to clear up. Kansas City, Baltimore, and New Orleans are all favored by less than I expected, and I think they’ll cover with ease. On to the picks!
Oakland Raiders +1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
With the Chargers coming off back-to-back wins over the Bears and Packers and the Raiders being the Raiders, it seemed reasonable to think the team with some competent defensive players would come out on top in this one. Of course they didn’t, because the game remained close and the Chargers’ fans (are there still Chargers fans after they abandoned San Diego?) can’t have nice things. Even if Philip Rivers guided a two-minute drill that looked to be coordinated by a professional, they just would have missed the field goal. Tough way to start the week. Chargers -1
Cincinnati Bengals +10 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Jets and the Dolphins are clearly the worst teams in the league, but the Bengals are biting at the Dolphins’ flukes. They are currently 0-8, but I don’t think a bye week will be enough for new starting quarterback Ryan Finley to topple the Ravens. Baltimore should have no trouble running the ball early and often in Cincinnati, and an improving defense will let them cover the double-digit spread. Ravens -10
Cleveland Browns -2 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are 6-2, and the Browns are 2-6, but as you can see above, advanced statistics suggest they’re pretty similar teams. The Buffalo defense hasn’t been as impressive as their early-season results would suggest, but it seems like Josh Allen is always able to do just enough to keep them ahead. He and their strong run game should be able to keep things moving against Cleveland, and it’s hard to count on Baker Mayfield at this point to win a close game. If Buffalo can get pressure like so many teams have against the Browns this year, the superior coaching and coordination should allow them to take advantage of any mistakes and pick up a win this week. Let’s take the extra two points. Bills +2
Chicago Bears -2.5 vs. Detroit Lions
The Bears are…favored? I mean, I know they’re the home team, but has anyone been watching Mitchell Trubisky? It took a successful onside kick for the Bears to break 20 points against the Saints’ prevent defense in Week 7, and they’ve scored 16 and 14 points since then. The defense is showing signs of fatigue at carrying everything for the team, and each wildly overthrown deep shot from the offense should push them deeper into despair. Let’s side with the better quarterback and the points. Lions +2.5
New York Jets +2.5 vs. New York Giants
The home team here is pretty misleading, as both “New York” teams play in the same stadium in New Jersey. I’m not super excited about asking Daniel Jones to cover a spread against a mediocre Jets’ defense, but I’m even less excited at the idea of watching the Jets offense under Adam Gase. I guess we’ll take the across-the-board below-average New York team over the mostly-putrid-but-good-at-two-things New York team. Giants -2.5
Tennessee Titans +6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is expected to play this weekend, a wonderful bit of news for anyone who has him on their fantasy team or just likes to watch someone do ridiculous things with a football. I don’t think they’d need him to beat the Titans, though; Tennessee’s best win of the year came against the Chargers, and we already covered how great they are at losing games. Kansas City should be able to at least reach their average of 28.0 points per game, and the Titans aren’t going to keep pace. Their best hope is a Colts-like approach to limit Kansas City’s possessions, but they don’t have the quarterback or playcaller Indianapolis does. Chiefs -6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Jameis Winston is favored! It’s always fun to pick against Jameis when he’s giving points to the other team, because he’s already so great at giving points to the other team. The Buccaneers absolutely could have come away with a victory in Seattle last week, much like they could have against the Titans the week before. They didn’t, and being second in the league in giveaways plays a large part in their failings. Arizona’s defense is getting better with Patrick Peterson back on the field, and Kyler Murray has shown enough flashes of brilliance to score points against Tampa’s defense. I don’t know if they can get the win on the road, but they can definitely cover. Cardinals +4
New Orleans -12.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Drew Brees looked great when he returned to the field two weeks ago, and he and Sean Payton have had two weeks to prepare for this game against Atlanta. The Falcons don’t do anything particularly well, and they’ll be traveling to the Superdome with an injured Matt Ryan. There’s no reason to believe they can stay within two touchdowns of a Saints team that looks as locked in as anyone in the league. Saints -12.5
Indianapolis Colts -10 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been frisky for a few weeks in a row now, much to the detriment of their draft positioning. Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing what he always does, randomly throwing for multiple touchdowns and breathing life into otherwise inept offenses, and it has been enough to climb out of last place in offensive DVOA. I think the Colts, with a healthy Jacoby Brissett, are too tall a task for the tanking Dolphins this week. Their defense will play smarter and turn some of Fitzpatrick’s more dangerous throws into turnovers, and their offense will be it’s usual methodical self. Throw in the cost of Miami winning another game, and this one starts to look like a blowout. Colts -10
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Let’s not forget how close the Steelers were to losing to Brian Hoyer last week. Their defense has been very good this year, especially after adding Minkah Fitzpatrick, and their defensive line play should give the Rams plenty to worry about. Goff has struggled under pressure all year, and his offensive line isn’t getting any help from their opponent this week. I actually expect the Los Angeles defense to win this game, as a bye week to integrate Jalen Ramsey and Wade Phillips’ usual magic combine to help them force mistakes from Mason Rudolph. If the Rams’ offense can get anything from the run game and get a couple of deep shots to Cooper Kupp, they’ll win easily. Rams -4
Green Bay Packers -5.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
I’ve gone back and forth on this game over the course of the week, and a lot of it is because of how bad Green Bay looked against the Chargers last week. Their offense suddenly became inept against a middling defense, and I haven’t been able to figure out exactly why just yet. The biggest plays we’ve seen from the Packers this year have come from their running backs, and the Panthers are set up well to mitigate those. Luke Kuechly is still an unbelievable player, capable of covering just about anyone out of the backfield, and there’s a lot of speed scattered around the rest of the Carolina defense as well. If Kyle Allen can protect the football and let Christian McCaffrey go to work against Green Bay’s soft run defense, I think the game will stay close. Panthers +5.5
Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Dallas is getting it’s full offensive line back into place at just the right time. Minnesota comes into this game after a tough loss to the Chiefs, and I think there are legitimate concerns about their defense’s ceiling with the poor play of top cornerback Xavier Rhodes this year. With the Dallas offense firing on all cylinders and Dak Prescott looking like a top-ten (five?) QB when his offensive coordinator shows any creativity at all, Kirk Cousins is going to be asked to put up a lot of points to win this game. Adam Thielen is likely out, and Dalvin Cook won’t be able to do everything himself. I think Dallas will take care of business at home. Cowboys -3
San Francisco 49ers -6 vs. Seattle Seahawks
As a Russell Wilson fantasy owner, it’s always fun to put his games on. The only thing that can hold him back is the archaic playcalling of Darrell Bevell and now Brian Schottenheimer, but as soon as the opposing offense starts to score points, they’re forced to let Russ throw the ball. The results are usually gorgeous, with rainbow deep shots and rifle shots across the middle. Unfortunately, I think San Francisco is built to crush Seattle. Remember those Rams-Seahawks games from 2017, when it seemed like the NFC West torch was really passed? Aaron Donald made it impossible for Russell Wilson to escape pressure behind a terrible offensive line, and the Seahawks offense just couldn’t get anything going. Enter Nick Bosa and the Niners’ top-ranked pass rush. If they remain disciplined enough to keep Russ in the pocket, they’ll be forcing punts all day long, and Kyle Shanahan’s offense won’t struggle against Seattle’s 27th-ranked defense. 49ers -6
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
