2019 NFL Picks Week 11: Historic Ineptitude
So that couldn’t have gone much worse! In easily the worst week of the history of this website, we watched our picks crumble into dust from Thursday through Monday, the early slate through Sunday Night Football, and even in games against the Browns. If it weren’t for the benevolent rays shining from Generous Jameis and the flickering lights emanating from the burning pile of garbage that is the Bengals, things would be even darker. As it stands, we’ll need to bounce back in a big way if we want to get back past break-even this year. Short memories, more stats, can’t lose!
Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
For the second week in a row, Cleveland is favored at home for reasons I don’t quite understand. I wasn’t feeling great about the Steelers when I picked against them last week, but their win over Indianapolis and Cleveland’s close win over Buffalo didn’t dramatically reshape my opinions of either team. The key element in this pick for me is the trenches: Pittsburgh is getting after opposing quarterbacks better than anyone but the Niners, and the Browns have struggled mightily to survive pass rushes this year. Furthermore, the Steelers’ offensive line is good enough to mitigate one of Cleveland’s few strengths. Unless this is the week where the Browns really figure things out, they shouldn’t win by much if they win at all. Steelers +2.5
Carolina Panthers -6 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Was Atlanta’s impressive win last week a sign of life from an otherwise-moribund team? Or was it a mirage against a content Saints’ team coming off a bye? It’s hard to be certain, but it’s going to take more than one game for me to believe in the 27th-overall Falcons on the road. They’re no longer dead-last in adjusted sack rate, but their pass rush should still struggle to take advantage of Kyle Allen’s poor pocket presence. Heavy doses of Christian McCaffrey should help the Panthers move the ball consistently, and he won’t be slowed by the porous Atlanta defense. Panthers -6
Detroit Lions +7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Matthew Stafford is out for a second consecutive week with a broken back, which I assumed would rule you out sooner than one day before kickoff. The Lions have been looking rough lately even with an underrated Stafford playing quite well. Subbing in Jeff Driskel isn’t going to make anything better, and the Cowboys’ top-rated offense won’t have any trouble moving the ball. Cowboys -7
Indianapolis Colts -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacoby Brissett has been cleared to play this week, but the injuries for the Colts are mounting up in a way that makes it hard to believe in them fully. I wish the Jaguars were still starting Gardner Minshew as much as anyone, but it’s not like Nick Foles is bad, so their offense shouldn’t suffer dramatically with the change. It should be close, and it should be low scoring, so we’ll take the points. Jaguars +3
Miami Dolphins +6 vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo certainly isn’t as good as their record suggests, but concerns from their loss to the Browns isn’t driving our pick here. The Dolphins are at home for this game, and working on a two-game winning streak after looking like a lock for the first overall pick. The cause for the turnaround is a familiar one to anyone who has watched the NFL for the past…70 years? Ryan Fitzpatrick is back on the field and dealing, much like he did for the Chicago Cardinals and St. Louis Rams back in the day. He’s going to run headfirst into a brick wall sometime soon, but until then he shouldn’t be getting this many points against a Josh Allen-led offense. Dolphins +6
Baltimore Ravens -4.5 vs. Houston Texans
This pick is more of a hunch than anything I’m certain about after watching Lamar Jackson go full Neo-in-the-Matrix last week. The Ravens are very good, and their defense is getting better each week with Marcus Peters added to the roster. I just think these two teams and two quarterbacks are too evenly matched to justify a line higher than three points. Deshaun Watson will view the game as an opportunity to make a statement in regards to the MVP race, and Houston’s defense should at least make things difficult for a Baltimore offense without many explosive receiving threats. I think Baltimore will win with a late field goal from Justin Tucker. Texans +4.5
Minnesota Vikings -10 vs. Denver Broncos
Were people really so excited about Denver’s performance against the Browns when we saw them last? The Vikings are coming home after a huge win in Dallas, and the Broncos are starting Joe Flacco’s backup. Denver has a slight edge on defense, but every other factor leans heavily in Minnesota’s direction. Vic Fangio has made life miserable for Kirk Cousins in the past, but this is a new year and a new team, and Captain Kirk seems to have a firm grip on the controls. The likeliest way for this pick to fall apart is a run-heavy game script from Minnesota, but I’m comfortable taking that risk with the home team against an inexperienced quarterback. Vikings -10
Washington -1 vs. New York Jets
Washington is in the same class of opponent as the Giants, so I’d expect this game to resemble last week’s Jets-Giants battle. Either team could have won that game, and the same is probably true here. If Case Keenum is available, I’d give the edge to Washington and count on them to generate enough points to come out ahead. If it’s Dwayne Haskins…well, we went 2-11 last week so this won’t look much worse than that. Washington -1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 vs. New Orleans Saints
While some idiots who are paid for their sports opinions discuss whether you should stick with your successful (from a W-L perspective) backup quarterback or bring back your starter after an injury, we’re going to stick to evaluating the teams in question. The Saints come into this game off a costly loss, and they’ll need a win to help move them closer to a first-round bye. I don’t expect the Buccaneers to be any less careless with the ball this week, but the Saints’ defense is far better than Arizona’s. Drew Brees should bounce back nicely from a rough week and help New Orleans win going away. Saints -5
San Francisco 49ers -11.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
I missed a pick like this just a couple of weeks ago, but there are reasons to expect a different outcome this time around. The Cardinals are bringing a banged-up Patrick Peterson into this showdown, and Kyler Murray will be dealing with the crowd noise in San Francisco going against the league’s best pass rush. I think he’ll still show some signs of brilliance, but he won’t be hitting Andy Isabella this time around for an 80+-yard touchdown. Look for the Niners to get ahead early and turn up the pressure from there. 49ers -11.5
Oakland Raiders -10 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
It’s finally happening: I’m picking Oakland. I’m still uneasy every time I consider what the Raiders might be capable of, but their offense has looked consistent enough to have no problem with Cincinnati’s last-ranked defense. Unless the Bengals’ young quarterback can put things together far faster than any of us expected, the Raiders will feast on his mistakes and let their highly-efficient offense take it from there. Raiders -10
Philadelphia Eagles +4 vs. New England Patriots
The Eagles are looking mostly good of late, while the Pats (and particularly New England’s offense) look out of sync. I would love to see Philadelphia beat New England again with the way their season has going, but something about this line just seems wrong. The Eagles appear to be mediocre at nearly everything, while the Pats lead the league in a few different categories.. I just think the Doug Pederson-Carson Wentz offense isn’t quite ready for the challenge New England’s defense will present. Patriots -4
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
With 12 points last week, 9 of which were on defense, why are the Rams favored by this much? The Bears should have no shortage of transplant fans to catch this game, and the Rams have looked utterly lost against pass pressure this year. The Bears aren’t getting after the quarterback as much as I thought they might coming into this season, but it’s still fair to say no one wants to see Khalil Mack lined up across from them. With the Bears in desperate need of a win and plenty capable of dialing up QB pressures, I’m taking the Bears to win. Bears +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers +4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs looked like an absolute disaster at the end of their loss to Tennessee, but a reeling Chargers’ squad gives them a great opportunity to improve on the eye test. Kansas City is a better team across the board, and Philip Rivers won’t be able to play fast and loose without turning the ball over. Add in the neutral site (the game is being played in Mexico City), and such a small line makes less sense. Chiefs -4
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath in my direction instead of yours.
